New Wave of Export Restrictions on Fertilizers Raises Global Food Cost Risks

Recent export bans, quotas and licensing curbs on key fertilizer products are tightening global nutrient supplies just as farmers in major grain belts prepare for the next planting cycle. Traders report growing concern that these policies, layered on top of the ongoing Iran conflict and logistics risks in the Gulf, could amplify price volatility for nitrogen, phosphate and potash, with knock‑on effects for global food inflation.

Newly expanded Russian quotas and licensing controls on fertilizer exports, temporary bans and curbs by regional suppliers such as Türkiye, and China’s tighter restrictions on sulfur and related industrial inputs are collectively affecting a material share of global fertilizer trade. Combined with shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, these measures are forcing import-dependent markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America to reassess sourcing strategies and hedge price exposure more aggressively.

Introduction

A recent data blog by the World Trade Organization highlights that, following the escalation of conflict in the Gulf, the share of global fertilizer trade covered by export restrictions has climbed to as much as 15% in 2026, including bans, quotas and licensing requirements on nitrogen and other products.  Russia has extended fertilizer export quotas and suspended some export licences for ammonium nitrate, while Türkiye has imposed a temporary export ban on sulfur, a critical input for phosphate fertilizers. 

At the same time, the broader economic impact of the 2026 Iran war has tightened supplies of urea, ammonia and sulfur moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global fertilizer flows.  With several large exporters now layering formal restrictions over existing logistical constraints, agricultural markets face the prospect of higher fertilizer costs feeding through into crop prices over the coming seasons.

Immediate Market Impact

The combination of new export quotas, licensing hurdles and outright bans is already reducing available export volumes and lengthening lead times for fertilizer shipments. The WTO estimates that up to 15% of global fertilizer trade is affected by such measures, implying a significant squeeze on seaborne spot availability. 

Importers in Asia are particularly exposed, as the region relies on the Middle East for roughly one‑third of urea, more than half of sulfur and nearly two‑thirds of ammonia imports.  With Russian quotas and Turkish sulfur bans limiting alternative supply, traders report firmer offers for urea and phosphate cargos and wider bid–offer spreads, signaling rising price volatility and risk premia in forward positions.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Export licensing suspensions on ammonium nitrate from Russia are constraining supplies of a key nitrogen source for cereal producers across Europe, North Africa and Latin America.  These controls add to existing sanctions and logistics issues around Black Sea shipments, resulting in more complex routing and higher freight and insurance costs.

Türkiye’s temporary sulfur export ban is disrupting supply chains for phosphate fertilizer producers that depend on imported sulfur for sulfuric acid production.  At the same time, disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are delaying ammonia and urea cargos, forcing buyers to seek alternative origins, often at higher prices and with longer transit times. 

These constraints are most acute for developing importers in South and Southeast Asia as well as parts of Sub‑Saharan Africa, where fertilizer affordability is already a concern. Smaller buyers with weaker credit quality face tougher access to product as suppliers prioritize large, long‑term customers.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• Urea and other nitrogen fertilizers – Russian licensing limits on ammonium nitrate and reduced Middle Eastern exports via the Strait of Hormuz are tightening global nitrogen availability, pushing up spot and forward prices. 
• Phosphate fertilizers (DAP/MAP/TSP) – Türkiye’s sulfur export ban and reduced sulfur flows from the Gulf are raising input costs for phosphate producers, with potential pass‑through to fertilizer prices. 
• Potash – While not directly targeted in the latest bans, tighter nitrogen and phosphate markets typically spur substitution and can pull potash prices higher as buyers front‑load purchases to secure supply.
• Wheat, maize and oilseeds – Higher fertilizer prices and supply uncertainty risk lower application rates in some regions, which could trim yield potential and underpin grain and oilseed prices over the next one to two crop years. 
• Rice – Past OECD tracking shows rice as the staple most frequently hit by export restrictions, and any reduction in fertilizer use in key Asian producers could reinforce governments’ incentive to reimpose cereal export controls if domestic prices spike. 

Regional Trade Implications

Asia stands at the center of the adjustment. Heavy dependence on Middle Eastern fertilizer supply means that any additional export controls by Gulf producers or transit disruptions through Hormuz rapidly translate into tighter regional markets.  Buyers are already diversifying toward Russian, North African and even North American origins, but face quota limits and licensing delays.

Russia, despite extending quotas and some licence suspensions, could still benefit from elevated prices on permitted volumes, as could North African exporters of ammonia and urea that are not directly affected by Gulf transit constraints.  In contrast, fertilizer‑importing economies in South Asia, East Africa and parts of Latin America may see widening trade deficits and higher food import bills if elevated fertilizer costs filter into crop prices.

Policy responses may include greater use of tariff‑rate quotas and state procurement programs to secure access to fertilizers and key food staples, echoing broader trends toward managed trade in agriculture.  These measures could further fragment markets and complicate arbitrage for international traders.

Market Outlook

In the short term, fertilizer markets are likely to remain tight, with elevated price volatility driven by policy headlines and any further disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Traders will monitor closely whether Russian export licensing is relaxed, whether Türkiye extends or lifts its sulfur ban, and how quickly Gulf export flows normalize. 

Forward curves may retain a risk premium into the next planting seasons, particularly in Asia and Africa, where supply security concerns are highest. Any additional export restrictions on staple crops, building on the pattern documented by the OECD for rice, wheat and maize, would reinforce upside risks for global food prices. 

CMB Market Insight

The latest wave of fertilizer export bans, quotas and licensing controls underscores the structural shift toward more interventionist trade policy in agricultural inputs. For commodity traders and supply‑chain managers, this environment demands closer monitoring of regulatory changes, more diversified sourcing portfolios and greater use of hedging tools to manage basis and flat‑price risk.

Import‑dependent buyers should stress‑test fertilizer and grain procurement strategies under scenarios of prolonged export restrictions and elevated freight costs, while exporters in relatively unconstrained regions may find opportunities in supplying premium markets seeking reliability. Overall, the strategic linkage between fertilizer policy and global food security is tightening, making export controls a key variable for agricultural market planning in the year ahead.