New Wave of Fertilizer and Input Export Curbs Raises Global Cost Risks for Food Supply

Global fertilizer and input markets are facing a fresh round of export restrictions, including a full Chinese ban on sulfuric acid exports and extended quota and duty systems in major fertilizer-producing countries. These measures are tightening nutrient supply, raising production costs for farmers, and adding a new layer of volatility to already fragile agricultural markets.

While food commodity prices have recently been driven by logistics bottlenecks and energy costs, the latest moves on export bans, quotas and temporary duties for key fertilizer products point to a more structural squeeze on inputs. Traders across grain, sugar, oilseed and specialty crop markets are reassessing forward pricing and risk exposure for the second half of 2026.

Introduction

Effective 1 May 2026, China has suspended exports of ordinary industrial sulfuric acid, including by-product acid from metal smelting, in order to prioritize domestic consumption and strategic sectors. Sulfuric acid is a critical feedstock for phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer production, as well as for mining and battery materials, making this ban immediately relevant for global fertilizer chains.

At the same time, Russia has extended and expanded quantitative limits on exports of mineral fertilizers to non-EAEU destinations through 30 November 2026, with a quota of just over 20 million tonnes for the June–November period. Egypt has added a three‑month export duty of USD 90/ton on nitrogen-based fertilizers starting 5 May 2026, following a sharp increase in domestic gas costs. Together, these measures reinforce an emerging pattern of producer-country intervention in fertilizer and precursor exports.

Immediate Market Impact

China’s sulfuric acid export ban will constrain global availability of a key intermediate for phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer production, particularly in Asia and Latin America, which have relied on Chinese flows. Spot sulfuric acid prices are expected to rise first in coastal Asia, with knock-on effects on delivered costs for DAP/MAP, SSP and certain nitrogen products.

Russian fertilizer export quotas, while slightly larger than in the previous period (20.07 million tonnes vs 18.69 million tonnes), maintain a hard ceiling on volumes and keep discretionary policy risk elevated for importers in Europe, Latin America and Africa. Egypt’s new export duty effectively raises the floor for FOB nitrogen fertilizer prices out of the Mediterranean, adding to cost pressure on nearby importers just ahead of key planting windows in North Africa and Southern Europe.

The World Bank’s recent commodity outlook already highlighted rising fertilizer prices in Q1 2026, led by urea, with export restrictions cited as a key driver of volatility. The latest measures are likely to extend that firmness into Q2–Q3, supporting elevated input costs even if energy markets stabilize.

Supply Chain Disruptions

The sulfuric acid ban is expected to alter established shipping patterns, as Asian and Latin American buyers seek replacement volumes from the Middle East, Europe or the Americas. This comes on top of existing freight bottlenecks that have already been reshaping grain and fertilizer shipping routes and increasing congestion and freight rates.

Russian quota management will likely continue to cause uneven monthly export flows, with periods of front‑loaded shipments followed by lulls as quotas are monitored and adjusted. For Egypt, export duties could temporarily reduce outbound nitrogen volumes as producers weigh netbacks in domestic versus export markets, creating short‑term tightness for regional buyers dependent on Egyptian urea and other nitrogen products.

These disruptions amplify existing challenges linked to the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, which has already pushed up urea prices and raised concerns that fertilizer prices could average 15–20% higher in the first half of 2026. With more policies constraining supply, logistics planners in the agri-food sector face increased scheduling risk, longer lead times and a higher probability of shipment delays.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• Urea and other nitrogen fertilizers – Export quotas in Russia and duties in Egypt directly impact nitrogen supply, while sulfuric acid constraints can raise production costs for some nitrogen products.
• Phosphate fertilizers (DAP, MAP, SSP) – Highly dependent on sulfuric acid; China’s export ban increases input costs and could tighten global phosphate availability.
• Potash and compound NPK blends – While not subject to direct new bans, higher prices or limited supply of nitrogen and phosphate components can lift NPK values and alter blend ratios.
• Wheat, maize and oilseeds – Farmers facing higher nutrient costs may cut application rates or switch crop mixes, with potential yield impacts for cereals and oilseeds in 2026–27 seasons.
• High‑value horticultural crops – Fruit, vegetable and specialty crop producers, especially in fertilizer‑import-dependent regions, are exposed to both cost inflation and potential availability issues for tailored nutrient products.

Regional Trade Implications

Asia is likely to feel the immediate impact of China’s sulfuric acid export halt, with regional fertilizer producers and industrial users forced to seek alternative sources or adjust production. Middle Eastern and European producers may capture additional sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer demand, provided they can secure feedstocks and shipping capacity.

In nitrogen, Russia’s quota system and Egypt’s temporary export duty will shift some buying interest toward other exporters such as the Gulf states, North America and Trinidad & Tobago, though these regions also face their own gas and capacity constraints. Net food‑importing developing countries in Africa and parts of Asia, which often rely on imported fertilizers and have limited ability to absorb higher costs, remain particularly vulnerable to pass‑through effects on food prices.

Longer term, persistent export controls could accelerate investment in domestic fertilizer capacity or alternative nutrient sources in major importing regions, but such projects are capital-intensive and slow to materialize. Until then, trade flows will remain highly sensitive to incremental policy changes in a small group of key producer countries.

Market Outlook

In the short term, fertilizer and sulfuric acid markets are poised for increased price volatility as traders digest the Chinese export ban, updated Russian quotas, and Egypt’s duty implementation. Price spikes are most likely in spot and nearby positions, particularly for sulfuric acid-linked products and Mediterranean nitrogen cargoes.

Downstream, grain and oilseed markets may respond gradually, with higher input costs feeding into 2026–27 crop production decisions rather than immediate supply shocks. Market participants will closely monitor any further tightening of export regimes, shifts in energy prices, and developments in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, all of which can amplify fertilizer price risk.

CMB Market Insight

The latest round of export bans, quotas and duties on fertilizers and critical intermediates underscores how input trade policies have become a central driver of agricultural market risk. For import-dependent buyers, supply security now hinges not only on production fundamentals and freight, but also on rapidly changing policy in a handful of key exporting countries.

Commodity traders, importers and food industry buyers should factor higher and more volatile fertilizer costs into forward pricing, hedging and procurement decisions for the next 6–12 months. Diversifying sourcing, extending lead times and monitoring regulatory signals in China, Russia, North Africa and the Middle East will be essential to managing margin and supply risk through the remainder of 2026.