North Africa’s Wheat Rebound Eases Global Import Demand
North Africa’s 2025/26 wheat recovery, led by Egypt and Morocco, tempers import needs and adds mild pressure on Black Sea and EU export prices.
Prices
Physical export and feed prices in key origins remain relatively stable to slightly softer, reflecting the improving supply outlook and ample nearby availability. Recent offers indicate:
- Ukraine, Odesa CPT: wheat grade 2 around EUR 0.185/kg (EUR 185/t), with grades 3 and feed wheat slightly lower.
- Germany, feed wheat EXW Drentwede: roughly EUR 0.201/kg (EUR 201/t), flat over the past week.
- France, milling wheat FOB Paris: about EUR 0.33/kg (EUR 330/t), easing from earlier levels as new crop pressure builds.
- U.S. CBOT‑linked wheat FOB: near EUR 0.24/kg (EUR 240/t) after recent mixed futures trade and modest weakness in July.
Overall, the price structure still rewards higher quality origins, but the improving supply prospects in North Africa and elsewhere limit upside, particularly for standard 11–12% protein milling grades.
Supply & Demand
North Africa’s wheat production in 2025/26 is forecast at about 20 million tonnes, a 15% year‑on‑year increase and 14.2% above the five‑year average. The turnaround is driven primarily by two countries: Morocco and Egypt.
- Morocco: Output is expected to recover by nearly 43% to 5 million tonnes after a drought‑affected season, thanks to better rainfall distribution and more favourable growing conditions.
- Algeria: Production is projected to rise 16% to 3.5 million tonnes, reinforcing the regional recovery.
- Tunisia & Libya: Both are forecast to see lower wheat crops, underlining the spatially uneven impact of weather even in a broadly better year.
Egypt stands out with a record 10.2 million tonnes, up 7% year on year and surpassing 10 million tonnes for the first time. Sown area expanded to 1.58 million hectares, an increase of roughly 252,000 hectares, supported by strong policy incentives and technology adoption.
Despite this recovery, North Africa remains structurally import‑dependent, having imported close to 25 million tonnes of wheat annually between 2020 and 2025. Stronger domestic production will, however, modestly reduce import requirements, ease procurement costs and soften short‑term demand for Black Sea, European and other major exporters, especially for mid‑range quality milling wheat.
Fundamentals & Policy Drivers
Government support is central to Egypt’s production gains. Farmers benefitted from subsidised high‑yielding seed varieties and a higher guaranteed procurement price of 2,500 Egyptian pounds per 150‑kg ardeb, which boosted planting incentives.
In parallel, roughly 75% of Egypt’s wheat area now uses modern production methods such as laser land levelling, improved soil management and more efficient input use. These practices are reported to have lifted yields by about 20%, turning policy and technology into powerful structural drivers of higher domestic supply.
Across the wider region, the 2025/26 improvement follows a drought‑affected year and is occurring against a backdrop of increasing climate variability and emerging El Niño conditions highlighted by African climate outlook forums. These raise the risk of more frequent weather shocks in coming seasons, but for now the current harvest adds a clear, near‑term bearish element to import demand.
Weather & Growing Conditions
The present recovery reflects mostly favourable rainfall patterns during the 2025/26 growing season, particularly in Morocco and parts of Algeria, allowing crops to progress through vegetative and reproductive stages without the severe deficits seen previously. Tunisia and Libya, by contrast, faced less supportive conditions, limiting yields and keeping output below last season.
Looking ahead into the second half of 2026, regional and global outlooks point to heightened climate risk associated with El Niño, with an increased probability of above‑normal temperatures in many African regions. While the current wheat crop is largely harvested, these patterns will be relevant for the next planting season and for soil moisture recharge, reinforcing the importance of continued investment in water management and climate‑resilient practices.
Trading Outlook
- Importers in North Africa: Use the larger 2025/26 domestic crop to slow the pace of spot purchases and diversify timing, but maintain coverage for quality milling wheat where local supply is tighter.
- EU & Black Sea exporters: Expect slightly softer demand from North Africa in the near term; focus on price competitiveness and freight into alternative growth markets to offset the regional pullback.
- Feed users in Europe: With Ukrainian and German feed wheat around EUR 180–200/t, consider incremental coverage on dips, while keeping flexibility in case weather or macro shocks reverse the current mild bearish tone.
- Risk management: Monitor policy adjustments in Egypt and climate signals for 2026/27, as renewed weather stress or subsidy changes could quickly re‑inflate regional import needs.
3‑Day Price Direction (EUR)
- Ukraine, Odesa (CPT, grades 2–3, feed): Sideways to slightly softer; good availability and weaker nearby North African demand cap rallies.
- Germany, feed EXW: Largely stable; local fundamentals balanced, but any further bearish global headlines could nudge prices modestly lower.
- France, milling FOB Paris: Mild downside bias as harvest pressure builds and North African buying is less aggressive than in prior tight years.
- U.S. CBOT‑linked FOB: Mixed, with range‑bound futures likely in the very short term given offsetting global weather and macro signals.