Oat Futures Rally with Wheat, While EU Feed Demand Softens

Oat futures on the CBOT are edging higher in the wake of a broader grain rally led by wheat, while physical prices in Europe remain relatively low and stable. The forward curve points to moderately firmer oat prices into 2027–28, but sluggish feed demand and solid Northern Hemisphere harvest progress are capping the upside for now. The oat market is currently riding on coattails of strength in wheat and other grains rather than its own fundamental squeeze. Nearby CBOT contracts have moved up in line with the post-holiday rally in Chicago, driven by geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty around Black Sea grain logistics. At the same time, European feed oat prices remain subdued, with German and Ukrainian offers below 0.20 EUR/kg, reflecting comfortable supplies and cautious feed demand. Weather in key oat regions such as the Canadian Prairies looks broadly supportive for harvest, limiting short-term production risk.

Prices

CBOT oat futures have firmed alongside wheat after the U.S. Labor Day break. September 2026 oats most recently traded around 343.50–350.25 US¢/bu, while December 2026 is near 370–375 US¢/bu, implying a 7–9% carry into winter and a strong rebound versus August levels.

Converted to EUR, the December 2026 contract around 3.70 USD/bu equates to roughly 1.25–1.30 EUR/bu, or about 0.23–0.24 EUR/kg (assuming 36.7 kg/bu and 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD). In the cash market, German feed-grade oats EXW Drentwede have inched up from 0.195 to 0.200 EUR/kg since mid-August, while Ukrainian feed oats FCA Odesa are holding at about 0.19 EUR/kg, underscoring a relatively narrow but stable cash basis.

Supply & Demand

CBOT data and recent USDA export figures for wheat highlight a broader grains environment of constrained Black Sea flows and sluggish U.S. exports. Wheat shipments in 2026/27 are running about 28% below last year, despite U.S. harvest being ahead of average and Ukraine nearing completion of a nearly 25 million ton wheat crop with respectable yields. This combination keeps global cereal prices supported and, by correlation, provides a floor under oats.

In the European oats complex, planted area for 2026/27 remains historically high despite a slight forecast reduction, as farmers still see oats as relatively profitable versus other spring grains. Human consumption of oats in the EU continues to trend higher due to oatmeal and oat-based drinks, while feed use is set to decline modestly, freeing additional volumes for export from the Nordic and Baltic region.

On the demand side, international grain buyers in Asia and Africa are recalibrating origins for wheat—toward Australia, Argentina and the EU—amid persistent uncertainty over Russian and Ukrainian exports. While these flows are wheat-centric, they tighten overall logistical capacity and keep freight and risk premia elevated, mildly supporting oats as a smaller but related cereal market.

Fundamentals & Weather

The oat futures curve out to 2028 shows a relatively flat but upward-sloping structure, with deferred contracts (2027–28) trading only modestly above nearby months, signalling no pronounced long-term scarcity. Gains across the curve of roughly 1.4–2.0% in recent sessions mirror the broader recovery in grain markets rather than oat-specific shocks. Open interest remains concentrated in the December 2026 contract, indicating that this is the key reference for hedging and price discovery.

Weather-wise, updated Canadian agroclimate and commercial forecasts point to above-normal temperatures and near- to above-normal precipitation across much of the Prairies into early autumn. This pattern generally favours harvest progress for late cereals such as oats, albeit with some risk of short-term delays from showers. Overall, no major yield or quality threat is currently visible for the remaining North American oat fields.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Farmers (EU, especially Germany): With local feed oat prices at about 0.20 EUR/kg and futures supported by wheat, consider scaling in sales on further rallies, particularly if December 2026 CBOT pushes significantly above 380 US¢/bu. Retain some unpriced volume given still-elevated geopolitical risk.
• Feed buyers (EU & Mediterranean): The narrow spread between German and Ukrainian feed oats (0.20 vs 0.19 EUR/kg) argues for opportunistic coverage of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs, especially if logistics from the Black Sea region remain reliable.
• Speculators: The oat market is thinly traded; recent gains are largely beta to wheat and broader grains. Trend-following long positions should be tightly risk-managed, as any easing in Black Sea tensions or stronger export competition could trigger a sharp correction.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• CBOT oats (EUR equivalent): Slightly firmer to sideways, tracking wheat; intraday volatility likely around geopolitical headlines.
• Germany EXW feed oats: Stable to mildly firmer around 0.20 EUR/kg as futures strength slowly filters into cash bids.
• Ukraine FCA Odesa feed oats: Largely stable near 0.19 EUR/kg, with upside limited by competition from other Black Sea feed grains.