Oats under Pressure: Weak CBOT Futures, Firm EU Feed Demand

Oat futures at the CBOT are drifting lower on thin volume despite heat-driven strength in Paris wheat, as ample Black Sea grain supplies cap the upside and keep global grains under pressure. Physical EU feed oat prices remain broadly stable, offering a floor to the complex but not yet triggering fresh buying momentum. Across grains, the historic heatwave in Western Europe is fuelling weather risk premiums in wheat, but this has not spilled over meaningfully into oats, where liquidity is low and the market is more insulated from North African demand swings. Instead, oats are trading in the shadow of global wheat and feed grain dynamics: abundant Black Sea export offers, slightly improving North African crops and only moderate demand growth from key importers. In Europe, feed oat prices around 0.18–0.25 EUR/kg signal a relatively well-supplied spot market.

Prices

The nearby CBOT oat contract July 2026 last traded around 298 USc/bu, down 4.00 cents or about 1.3% versus the previous day, with a narrow intraday range between 296.50 and 302.00 USc/bu and very low volume (4 lots). Deferred contracts are slightly firmer, with December 2026 at 337.00 USc/bu and March 2027 at 343.00 USc/bu, indicating a mild carry structure along the curve.

Converted roughly with 1 EUR = 1.07 USD and 1 bushel of oats ≈ 32 lb (14.5 kg), July oats are trading near 195–200 EUR/t. This aligns with EU indicative feed oat prices around 135 EUR/t on an ex-mill basis, suggesting that CBOT values are not significantly out of line with European levels when freight and basis are included.

Physical offers reflect this stability: German feed-grade oats (14% moisture, EXW Drentwede) are quoted at about 0.179 EUR/kg, unchanged over the last week, while Ukrainian feed oats (FCA Odesa, 98% purity) stand around 0.25 EUR/kg, also flat. This leaves a notable spread between inland German and Black Sea-origin oats, dominated by logistics and risk premia rather than outright price moves.

Supply & Demand

Weather is the key short-term risk, but its impact is uneven across grains. A historic heatwave in France and Western Europe is threatening summer crops and early-developed wheat, supporting Paris prices. Oats, however, are less directly affected due to more northerly production zones and limited linkage to Mediterranean importers. At the same time, Black Sea exporters are aggressively pricing wheat, indirectly capping the upside for all feed grains.

Ukraine’s wheat crop estimate was recently raised to 24.1 million tonnes, while Russia cut export prices and plans to ship around 2.5 million tonnes of wheat in June, well above last year. This heavy Black Sea presence in the global feed grain matrix weighs on U.S. cereals, including oats, by keeping buyers comfortable with alternatives. Strong U.S. wheat exports show that demand exists, but abundant supply from the Black Sea blocks a stronger rally that might otherwise spill over into minor cereals.

On the demand side, Egypt continues to post record wheat procurement and import volumes, underscoring robust global cereal consumption. But Morocco’s improving harvest after years of drought suggests a sharp reduction in 2026/27 wheat imports, particularly from the EU. While oats are only marginally exposed to this trade, the overall message for European growers is clear: traditional North African demand will contribute less to clearing the surplus, leaving more competitive pressure within the EU feed grain complex.

Weather & Regional Outlook

In Western Europe, temperatures remain well above normal amid a strong heatwave, raising concern for shallow-rooted summer crops and stressing early cereals on lighter soils. This supports a modest weather premium in Paris wheat but has so far failed to materially tighten the oat balance sheet, given oats’ stronger positioning in cooler northern regions.

In North America, recent outlooks for the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains point to locally heavy rainfall episodes over the next 7–10 days, easing short-term drought concerns but increasing storm risk and localized fieldwork delays. Canadian Prairie forecasts for key oat regions such as eastern Saskatchewan show seasonally mild to warm conditions with intermittent showers, consistent with generally favourable establishment and tillering. Overall, weather remains a watch factor rather than an immediate bullish driver for oats.

Fundamentals & Basis

The CBOT oat curve shows a modest carry from July 2026 to mid-2027, with front-month values under 300 USc/bu and deferred months edging into the mid-330s to mid-340s USc/bu. This structure signals adequate nearby supply and sufficient on-farm stocks, with the market willing to pay storage but not yet pricing in a major future shortage.

Within the EU, indicative feed oat prices around 135 EUR/t in key markets, slightly up month-on-month but well below year-ago levels, confirm a comfortable balance. German EXW quotes near 179 EUR/t and Ukrainian FCA offers close to 250 EUR/t highlight the role of freight and geopolitical risk in shaping cross-border flows. With wheat and barley also under pressure from Black Sea competition, oats face tough substitution from cheaper mainstream feed grains, limiting upside potential in the absence of weather shocks.

3–6 Month Market & Trading Outlook

Over the next few weeks, oats are likely to remain range-bound, tracking moves in the broader grain complex rather than establishing an independent trend. The combination of aggressive Black Sea wheat exports, improving North African harvest prospects and only moderate weather stress in core oat regions points to a fundamentally neutral to slightly bearish setup.

However, the extremely low liquidity in CBOT oats amplifies price swings when weather or macro headlines hit. Any sustained deterioration in Canadian Prairie or Northern U.S. weather during heading and grain fill could tighten the balance sheet quickly, especially if accompanied by renewed strength in Paris wheat. For now, the mild carry and stable physical prices argue against a structural bull market, but downside appears limited by already depressed EU feed oat valuations.

Trading Recommendations

• EU livestock/feed buyers: Use current stability in German EXW oats (~0.18 EUR/kg) to extend coverage into Q3, but avoid aggressive forward purchases beyond new-crop until weather risks in Canada and the U.S. are clearer.
• Growers in Northern Europe: Consider incremental hedging on rallies toward the upper end of recent CBOT ranges (>305–310 USc/bu July equivalent), as strong Black Sea wheat competition limits upside for minor cereals.
• Importers in the Mediterranean and Middle East: Maintain a diversified feed grain book: combine competitively priced Black Sea wheat/barley with opportunistic oat purchases where logistics favour them, but do not rely on oats as a primary volume driver.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)