📉 Oilseed Markets Under Pressure – Global Trade Tensions and Changing Supply Dynamics Shape Outlook
📍 The oilseed market continues to be caught in a complex push-and-pull between trade uncertainty and shifting supply patterns. While rapeseed futures remain in a downtrend, canola prices have shown signs of recovery. Soybeans are holding steady as South American harvests progress and U.S. demand faces new challenges.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Rape seeds
42% min oil
98%
FCA 0.51 €/kg
(from UA)
Get Your Delivery Cost
Rape seeds
42% min oil
98%
FCA 0.51 €/kg
(from UA)
Get Your Delivery Cost
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,015.50 | €342.23/t | -0.50 | -0.05% |
| July 2025 | 1,030.50 | €347.90/t | +5.00 | +0.49% |
| November 2025 | 1,043.50 | €353.60/t | +4.50 | +0.43% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 466.00 | -2.50 | -0.53% |
| August 2025 | 455.50 | -2.25 | -0.49% |
| November 2025 | 459.75 | -1.25 | -0.27% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 574.20 | €398/t | +4.90 | +0.85% |
| July 2025 | 585.90 | €407/t | +3.50 | +0.60% |
| November 2025 | 591.70 | €411/t | +0.20 | +0.03% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- China’s Trade Measures Create Uncertainty for Global Oilseed Markets 🇨🇳📉
→ New import restrictions are forcing buyers to reconsider sourcing strategies.
→ Traders remain cautious as global supply networks adjust to shifting demand. - U.S. Soybean Processing and Export Slowdown Raises Concerns 🏭
→ NOPA crush data fell below expectations, signalling weaker domestic demand.
→ Export figures show a downward trend, adding pressure on the market. - Brazil’s Harvest Gains Pace, Adding Competitive Pressure 🚢
→ Harvest progress is ahead of schedule, boosting export capacity.
→ Rising soybean premiums reflect strong international demand. - Australian Canola Exports Expand Beyond Traditional Markets 🌏
→ Increased shipments to Europe and Asia suggest growing demand shifts.
→ Export trends indicate that alternative suppliers are stepping up in response to global trade disputes.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Conditions Support Crop Development
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Moisture levels remain steady, supporting late-season growth.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Expected to stay moderate.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Precipitation continues, improving crop stability.
- 🚨 Impact: Likely to help sustain overall yield potential.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Market sentiment remains cautious amid global trade uncertainties.
- Resistance Level: €480/t
- Support Level: €460/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €465 – €475/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Holding steady, but facing export competition and shifting global demand.
- Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,005 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed and canola remain under pressure due to ongoing trade shifts and supply concerns.
- Soybeans are holding ground, but competition from Brazil continues to weigh on prices.
- The market remains in a delicate balance, with traders closely watching the next moves in global trade negotiations.
🔮 Attention remains on trade policies, South American supply trends, and potential shifts in U.S. planting strategies.