Pakistan Steps In as Sudan Stumbles: Sesame Market at a Turning Point

Pakistan’s new sesame crop is emerging as the key bearish counterweight to mounting supply risks in Sudan, keeping a lid on global prices despite structural tightness. Weak short-term Chinese buying is delaying any sharp rally, but a poorer Sudanese crop could quickly shift sentiment once demand returns. Global sesame trade is pivoting toward South Asia as Pakistan offers competitively priced, good-quality seed just as Sudan’s Gedaref region struggles with delayed rains and high production costs. Arrivals in Punjab are rising and exports to China have more than doubled, reinforcing Pakistan’s role as a core supplier. At the same time, weather- and cost-related threats to Sudan’s 2026–27 crop could trim export availability later in the season. For now, cautious Chinese demand and steady offers from India and Africa create a broadly balanced, slightly soft market – but with rising upside risk if Sudan’s yields disappoint or Chinese demand accelerates.

Prices

Pakistan’s domestic sesame market is quoted around PKR 10,000–10,500 per 40 kg, equivalent to roughly USD 900–945 per tonne at farm level, while export offers are in the USD 1,050–1,100 per tonne range, placing Pakistan among the more competitive global origins for new-crop shipments.

Converted to EUR (using ~1.10 USD/EUR), this implies Pakistani export offers near EUR 955–1,000 per tonne, broadly in line with or slightly under many established African and Indian references for comparable qualities.

Recent sesame offers from India and Africa show a mildly soft undertone, with incremental declines over August pointing to a market where new-crop availability and cautious demand are tempering any weather-driven risk premium.

These levels underline that while Pakistan is pricing aggressively at origin, delivered and processed product in Europe and Asia still reflects logistics, processing margins and quality premiums, especially for EU-grade and specialty black sesame.

Supply & Demand

Pakistan’s sesame supply outlook is turning increasingly constructive. Daily arrivals of 10–12 tonnes across Punjab mandis are set to rise as harvesting progresses, and market participants report good quality, which is crucial for high-spec buyers in China and other destinations.

Pit-side, Pakistan has already strengthened its foothold in China: exports in January–June 2026 more than doubled to about 96,667 tonnes, and latest customs-based statistics confirm that shipments to China in the first seven months of the year have exceeded 100,000 tonnes in value terms above USD 100 million, highlighting sustained structural demand for Pakistani origin.

However, near-term Chinese buying interest is reported as weak. Importers are cautious, managing pipeline stocks and watching new-crop progress in both South Asia and Africa. This hesitancy is capping upside in international prices despite Pakistan’s competitive offers and the emerging risk profile in Sudan.

In Sudan, the 2026–27 sesame crop faces a markedly less favourable backdrop. In Gedaref State – a core sesame-producing hub – delayed and below-average rainfall has hampered planting, leaving parts of the area unusually dry. At the same time, sharply higher fuel and fertiliser costs are squeezing farm margins, making it harder for growers to maintain normal input use and planted area.

The combination of late sowing, inadequate moisture and expensive inputs points to a high likelihood of reduced production and, by extension, constrained export availability from Sudan in the coming marketing year. While seasonal climate outlooks for the wider Nile Basin have been mixed, they do not yet guarantee a recovery from early-season deficits in key Sudanese rainfed zones.

Given Sudan’s established role in supplying China and other major importers, any sizeable crop shortfall could force buyers to rebalance towards Pakistan, India and other African origins. Rising Pakistani availability should offset part of this gap, but not without potential tightening in certain qualities and shipment windows.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Fundamentally, the market is currently torn between bearish and bullish forces. On the bearish side, Pakistan’s competitively priced new crop, together with consistent Indian offers and the still-steady flow of African sesame into Chinese ports, are ensuring that nearby physical supply remains sufficient.

On the bullish side, Sudan’s weather and cost stress, together with underlying growth in Asian demand (notably China, Japan and South Korea), imply that any renewed Chinese restocking phase could tighten the balance quickly, especially if Sudan’s exportable surplus is significantly reduced. Recent data highlight China’s continued dependence on imported sesame, with African and Pakistani origins together supplying the bulk of arrivals through key ports.

Input-cost inflation in Sudan and parts of East Africa may also underpin a higher cost floor for the coming season, even if global freight and energy markets remain relatively benign compared with previous spikes. This cost support is likely to limit the downside for FOB offers once the full implications of Sudan’s crop become clearer.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather is the primary near-term wildcard. In Gedaref, August temperatures have remained seasonally high, but reports indicate delayed and patchy rainfall in parts of the sesame belt, which has already affected planting. Without a material improvement in precipitation over the coming weeks, yield potential could be structurally constrained for the 2026–27 crop.

In Pakistan and India, the current narrative focuses less on acute weather stress and more on the pace of harvest and arrivals. With good quality being reported from Pakistan’s new crop, weather is currently supportive there, though late-season events could still affect final volumes and post-harvest quality in some districts.

Market & Trading Outlook

Over the next 1–2 months, the sesame market is likely to remain range-bound to slightly firm, as rising Pakistani arrivals and weak immediate Chinese demand offset tightening risk from Sudan. Beyond that window, price direction will depend heavily on verified Sudanese crop outcomes and any shift in Chinese buying patterns.

• Importers (China, Middle East, EU): Consider gradually increasing forward coverage from Pakistan while differentials remain favourable, especially for quality-sensitive segments. Maintain some flexibility to switch volumes towards India or other African origins if Sudan’s crop improves more than expected.
• Origin sellers (Pakistan, India, Africa): Pakistani exporters should leverage current competitiveness but avoid over-committing before clearer signals on Chinese demand. Sudanese and other African sellers may gain pricing power later in the season if production losses materialise and Pakistan’s surplus is absorbed.
• Industrial users (oil crushers, food manufacturers): Use the current relatively soft tone to extend coverage into early 2027, prioritising origins with reliable quality and logistics. Build in optionality across origins to manage potential volatility stemming from Sudanese production risks.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based benchmarks)

• Pakistan FOB, new-crop natural: Largely steady in EUR terms; mild downside possible if arrivals accelerate faster than export sales.
• Indian FOB, hulled and natural: Sideways to slightly softer, reflecting competition from Pakistan and still-cautious Chinese spot buying.
• African origins (incl. Sudan, Chad, Egypt): Mostly stable offers in the very near term; upside risk is building but unlikely to price in fully over the next three days absent new weather or policy shocks.