Palm Oil Logs Third Weekly Loss – Weakness in Soyoil and Crude Prevails
Palm Oil Logs Third Weekly Loss – Weakness in Soyoil and Crude Prevails
Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Friday, weighed down by continued weakness in soy oil and crude oil markets. Despite strong export flows, futures logged their third straight weekly loss.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development (in EUR/t)
The August 2025 contract on the MDEX fell by 41 MYR on Friday, closing at 3,815 MYR/t. This equals approximately 763.00 EUR/t, assuming an exchange rate of 5.00 MYR = 1.00 EUR. The weekly change was minimal: –0.05%.
| Contract | Price (MYR/t) | EUR/t | Daily Change (EUR) | Weekly Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 3,815 | 763.00 | –8.20 EUR | –0.05% | ⬇️ |
| Sep 25 | 3,808 | 761.60 | –8.40 EUR | – | ⬇️ |
| Oct 25 | 3,809 | 761.80 | –9.20 EUR | – | ⬇️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Soyoil and Crude Oil Weakness Dominate
The continued downturn in soy oil (–1.8%) and Brent crude oil prices weighed heavily on palm oil sentiment. - Export Demand Firm
Traders noted consistent export flows to India and Pakistan, driven by a historically wide spread between soyoil and palm oil. - Technical Correction
The third weekly loss was limited in scope, suggesting buyers may return near 3,800 MYR/t if external conditions stabilise. - Macro Uncertainty Remains
Markets await clarity on U.S. biofuel policy, which has recently dominated sentiment across all edible oil markets.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Palm oil remains under pressure but is approaching technical support levels. A reversal may follow if soy oil finds a floor.
Strategy:
– Monitor support at 3,780–3,800 MYR/t
– Wait for soy oil reversal before committing to longs
– Exporters should stay aggressive shortly
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract – EUR/t)
| Date | Expected Range (EUR/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 20 | 755–768 | ➡️ Neutral |
| May 21 | 750–765 | ⬇️ Risk Bias |
| May 22 | 755–775 | ⬆️ Possible Bounce |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Palm Oil Regions
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 🌦️ Normal monsoon | No supply disruption; production season intact |
| Indonesia | 🌤️ Slightly dry | Some concerns in northern Sumatra |
| India | ☀️ Hot | Supports import needs in edible oils |
| Middle East | ☀️ Stable | Ramadan exit boosts food sector oil consumption |
