Palm Oil Prices Rebound – Futures Post Strongest Daily Gain in Two Weeks
Malaysian palm oil futures surged on Tuesday, recording their largest daily gain in two weeks. Support came from a weaker ringgit, firmer rival oils, and improving technical signals.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development (MDEX, converted to EUR)
The August 2025 contract closed at 3,915 MYR/t, up 33 MYR or +0.84% on the day.
Assuming a conversion rate of 5.00 MYR = 1 EUR, this equals approximately 783.00 EUR/t.
| Contract | Price (MYR/t) | EUR/t (approx) | Daily Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 3,927 | 785.40 | +34 MYR | ⬆️ |
| Aug 25 | 3,915 | 783.00 | +33 MYR | ⬆️ |
| Sep 25 | 3,904 | 780.80 | +30 MYR | ⬆️ |
| Oct 25 | 3,900 | 780.00 | +28 MYR | ⬆️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Weaker Ringgit Boosts Competitiveness
The Malaysian ringgit softened against the U.S. dollar, making palm oil cheaper for foreign buyers. - Soy Oil Stabilises After Sharp Losses
After a volatile previous week, soy oil futures steadied, reducing pressure on the broader vegetable oil complex. - Technical Momentum Builds
After three consecutive weekly losses, technical indicators pointed to short-covering and bargain hunting. - Export Demand Improving
Traders report steady shipments to India and Pakistan ahead of summer demand peaks.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Palm oil has regained short-term support above 3,900 MYR/t. If soy oil continues to recover, more upside could follow.
Strategy:
– Buy on dips above 3,880 MYR/t
– Watch for confirmation above 3,930 for bullish extension
– Exporters may price forward sales into August
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract – EUR/t)
| Date | Expected Range (EUR/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 21 | 775–785 | ⬆️ Bullish |
| May 22 | 770–790 | ➡️ Sideways |
| May 23 | 772–795 | ⬆️ Technical |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Palm Oil Regions
| Region | Trend | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 🌦️ Scattered Rain | Typical May pattern; no disruption expected |
| Indonesia | 🌤️ Mild & dry | Some concerns in Sumatra plantations |
| India | ☀️ Hot & dry | May drive edible oil imports higher |
| Middle East | ☀️ Stable demand | No disruption to seasonal trade |
