Pea Market Split: Firm Indian Pulses, Flat Black Sea Prices, Weather Risk in Europe

Indian pulse demand linked to the festive season is underpinning the broader pulses complex, but peas are currently following a quieter, more supply‑driven path with flat to slightly weaker export quotes. Ample and rising availability of other pulses, especially urad, is helping cap upside in the wider South Asian pulse basket, indirectly limiting near‑term price momentum for imported peas. In Europe, weather volatility and a disappointing 2026 harvest raise medium‑term supply risks, but these are not yet reflected in spot export prices from key origins. Across India, firm demand for tur, chickpea and lentils into October shows consumers are willing to pay up for key festival proteins, while higher urad imports are already tempering gains in that segment. For peas, trade remains more influenced by export availability out of the Black Sea and UK, where logistics, weather and currency dynamics are key. Current quotations in EUR suggest that buyers still have time to extend coverage at historically low price levels, but supply‑side weather risks in Europe warrant closer monitoring into Q4.

Prices

Pea export quotations in EUR remain broadly steady at historically low levels, with only minor softness in Black Sea green peas.

Since early September, UK green pea and marrowfat FOB quotations have been flat, while Ukrainian FCA yellow peas have held unchanged since early September and green peas have eased slightly. At Indian wholesale markets, recent dry pea (matar) quotes are also stable to modestly firm in INR terms, reflecting steady domestic demand but no aggressive buying spike. 

Supply & Demand

In India, strong festive consumption is currently concentrated in tur, chickpea and lentils, with peas remaining a secondary but closely related pulse. The firm tone in these benchmark pulses, combined with very high central pool chickpea stocks of around 1.95 million tonnes, indicates robust protein demand but also substantial government-controlled supply that can temper price spikes.

At the same time, urad dynamics are turning more bearish: international CNF quotes for Myanmar urad FAQ and SQ have eased by about $5 per tonne, Indian arrivals are set to rise as weather improves, and imports from Myanmar and Brazil are expected to increase sharply in October. This combination of higher urad availability and sizeable chickpea inventories reduces spillover support for substitute pulses such as peas, as millers have cheaper alternatives within the pulse complex.

On the export side, Ukraine is gradually restoring outbound agricultural flows despite logistical constraints, and government data show that total agri exports in September are recovering, supporting availability of bulk grains and likely pulses through Black Sea and alternative routes.  In Europe, the 2026 growing season has been hit by extreme heat and drought, with EU crop monitors and national bodies flagging yield losses across arable crops.  While peas are a smaller segment, this pattern suggests tighter medium-term regional supply than the current spot price structure implies.

Fundamentals & Weather

Recent European assessments highlight that the exceptionally hot and dry 2026 summer accelerated crop development and depleted soil moisture, leading to smaller grains and lower yields in many regions.  In the UK specifically, harvest commentary points to a disappointing overall 2026 crop, with key cereals down versus the five-year average after the heatwave.  Although peas are not singled out, field reports and farmer discussions throughout the season have repeatedly underlined the vulnerability of UK pea yields to prolonged heat and moisture stress.

Looking ahead into early Q4, weather forecasts for the UK call for continued mild and wetter-than-normal conditions in autumn.  This should help replenish soil moisture but is too late to influence the completed pea harvest. For the EU more broadly, official short-term outlooks stress that 2026 is a year of climate extremes, with drought and heat impacting up to 70% of agricultural land, reinforcing structural yield risk for spring and summer crops. 

In India, meanwhile, improving weather is expected to increase urad arrivals, and Myanmar still holds a sizeable old-crop urad stock of 350,000–400,000 tonnes, with additional Brazilian supply on the way. These pulses will compete directly with imported peas in some value-conscious segments, weighing on import demand for peas into South Asia over the next 1–2 months.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Festive demand is set to keep the Indian pulse complex generally supported through October, particularly for tur, chickpea and lentils. However, the rapid normalization in urad supply points to more balanced or even slightly bearish fundamentals for some competing pulses, including peas, on a relative-value basis.

• Importers / Feed users: Current FCA Odesa yellow pea prices at 0.17 EUR/kg and green peas at 0.19 EUR/kg offer attractive coverage opportunities for Q4, especially given European weather risks that could tighten regional availability later in the season.
• Food manufacturers: With UK green peas at 0.96 EUR/kg FOB London and marrowfat peas at 1.24 EUR/kg, consider locking in a portion of 3–6 month requirements while prices remain flat, keeping some flexibility for possible post-festive softness if global pulse balances loosen.
• Producers in Europe: Given the climate-related yield pressure seen in 2026, evaluate forward sales cautiously; spot prices do not yet fully reward production risk, suggesting some benefit in staggering sales into periods of potential supply tightness.

3‑Day Directional View (spot quotations)

• UK green peas, FOB London: Sideways; liquidity thin but no immediate driver for sharp moves.
• UK marrowfat peas, FOB London: Sideways to mildly firm on niche demand and limited supply.
• Ukraine yellow & green peas, FCA Odesa: Slight downside risk if export logistics improve further and nearby demand stays cautious; otherwise broadly range‑bound.