Pea Market Steady but Arhar-Led Supply Risks Point to Firmer Floor

India’s arhar (pigeon pea) complex remains structurally tight, keeping a firm floor under pulse values and indirectly supporting dry pea prices despite mixed signals from global supply. Limited domestic arhar stocks and production risks in Maharashtra and Karnataka offset softer imported arhar offers and still-subdued pea values. Pulse demand linked to India’s festival season, together with constrained export flows from the Black Sea, is likely to cap downside in peas even as some profit-taking emerges from recent highs in arhar. For now, peas trade in a narrow range, but risk skew remains mildly bullish if Indian arhar yields disappoint or Ukrainian logistics worsen further.

Prices

Domestic arhar continues to draw support from mill demand, with imported Lemon arhar for 2026 crop quoted around $915/t CNF and 2025 crop near $905/t CNF, while other grades (Gajri, white, Matwara) trade in the $760–$775/t CNF band. Central-pool arhar stocks of roughly 1.0–1.2 million tonnes and private holdings of 0.5–0.6 million tonnes underline a relatively tight, but not yet critical, balance.

Dry pea prices remain significantly lower than arhar on a protein-equivalent basis. In Ukraine, indicative FCA Odesa offers are around EUR 0.17/kg for yellow peas and EUR 0.22/kg for green peas, while UK FOB London levels hover near EUR 0.97/kg for green and EUR 1.26/kg for marrowfat peas, all broadly steady versus late August. Short-term basis risk is elevated in the Black Sea due to disrupted Odesa port logistics, but farm-gate pea prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from ample feed-grain competition.

Supply & Demand

Festival-season consumption in India is sustaining robust arhar offtake, while production expectations have weakened in Maharashtra and Karnataka due to adverse rainfall patterns and heightened weather risk during critical crop stages. Recent trade commentary highlights that, despite a small increase in India’s arhar sowing area, dryness in these states is reinforcing concerns over yield outcomes and keeping millers active buyers. At the same time, global pea fundamentals are more comfortable. International forecasts point to lower pea output in major exporters such as Canada and Russia, but this is partly offset by soft import demand into South Asia, where historically good domestic pulse harvests had curbed buying. Nonetheless, with Black Sea export flows constrained and India’s yellow pea import appetite improving, the downside for feed-quality peas appears increasingly limited, particularly into late September and October.

Fundamentals & Weather

Arhar’s role as a key protein pulse in Indian diets means even modest production shocks in Maharashtra and Karnataka translate quickly into tighter domestic balance sheets. Current central and private stock estimates – a combined 1.5–1.8 million tonnes – provide a buffer but are insufficient to fully offset a major regional yield shortfall, especially during the high-demand festival window.

Weather remains the primary near-term risk driver. In western and central India, forecasts for the coming weeks indicate uneven monsoon rains, with potential for both localized dryness and intense downpours. Excess rainfall in September–October would threaten waterlogging-sensitive arhar crops, while continued deficits would curb pod formation. Either scenario could tighten the arhar complex further, indirectly supporting substitution demand for imported dry peas and other pulses.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Feed users: Use current weakness in Ukrainian and other Black Sea pea quotations to secure nearby coverage, as arhar-related tightness in India and ongoing Black Sea disruptions skew medium-term risk to firmer prices.
• Millers / Pulse blenders: Maintain flexible formulations between arhar and peas; if Maharashtra/Karnataka yields deteriorate further, arhar premiums over peas are likely to widen, making peas more attractive in blended products.
• Producers (Ukraine, UK): Consider staged sales; while local cash markets are under pressure, improving demand signals from India and constrained Black Sea logistics argue against aggressive forward selling at current lows.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, EUR-based)

• Ukraine FCA Odesa peas: Sideways to slightly firmer; logistics risk offsets still-soft internal demand.
• UK FOB London green & marrowfat peas: Largely stable; niche demand and limited spot liquidity cap volatility.
• India CNF peas (replacement vs. arhar): Mildly upward bias, reflecting firm arhar complex and steady imported demand into festival season.