Peas and Pulses: Firm Festival Demand Meets Weather and Import Risks

Demand from dal mills at lower price levels is firming key pulses such as pigeon peas and urad, while chickpeas and desi lentils are trading softer and moong remains broadly stable. With limited domestic arrivals, tight local stocks and a recovering but still uneven Indian monsoon, the short‑term tone in peas and the broader pulse complex is mildly supportive rather than aggressively bullish. Across the complex, buying interest is increasingly tied to expectations for stronger festival-season consumption from mid‑August onward. Import flows from Myanmar and Brazil are due to increase, but current tightness in nearby supplies and still‑below‑last‑year kharif pulse acreage in India point to ongoing sensitivity to weather and logistics in the coming weeks.

Prices

Domestic pulse markets in India show a clear split: pigeon peas and urad are strengthening at the margin, while chickpeas and desi lentils have softened and moong is flat. Imported Burmese FAQ urad for July–August shipment is steady around USD 920/t CFR, with SQ urad near USD 1,015/t, as domestic millers step up buying against limited stocks and reduced arrivals from producing regions. Pigeon pea prices have edged higher across several markets: Sudan-origin material has gained about USD 1 per quintal to roughly USD 69–69.5 per quintal, Gajri quality sits near USD 61.5–62, and Matwara around USD 61–61.5 per quintal. By contrast, chickpeas and desi lentils are trading softer, with production-market offers falling below government support levels, signalling comfortable nearby availability and cautious demand. Moong prices remain largely stable, as declining summer-crop arrivals are offset by subdued mill purchasing, preventing any sharp move higher. Global dry pea indications in Europe and the Black Sea remain broadly steady in late July. Recent offers converted to EUR show UK dried green peas FOB London near EUR 0.97/kg and marrowfat peas around EUR 1.27/kg, while Ukrainian green peas FCA Odesa are about EUR 0.30/kg and yellow peas roughly EUR 0.21/kg. These levels suggest no major external cost shock feeding back into South Asian pulse values for now.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, mill buying in India is increasing for urad and pigeon peas, especially at lower price levels, as processors rebuild inventories ahead of the mid‑August onset of the festival season. Consumption of urad products (mogar and gota) is expected to pick up with seasonal demand, adding support to nearby prices. Supply is currently constrained by limited domestic arrivals in several major markets and low carry-in stocks, particularly for urad and pigeon peas. Fresh imported supplies from Myanmar and Brazil are expected from mid‑August, which should ease the tightness if shipments materialise as planned. Until then, physical availability remains relatively snug, keeping markets sensitive to any additional demand or logistical disruption. For chickpeas and desi lentils, the picture is more comfortable. Domestic arrivals, while not heavy, are accompanied by ongoing imported supplies that land at comparatively higher costs, encouraging buyers to stay cautious. This, together with quotations below government support levels for desi lentils, underpins the softer tone in these segments despite generally firm sentiment in the broader pulse complex.

Weather & Kharif Outlook

The 2026 Indian monsoon started weak, delaying kharif sowing and depressing overall acreage, including pulses. More recent July rainfall has triggered a partial recovery, but national kharif sowing remains below last year, with shortfalls concentrated in rice, coarse cereals and pulses, and weather experts warning that yields will depend heavily on August–September rainfall patterns and developing El Niño conditions. Pulse acreage, including urad and pigeon peas, is still several percentage points below the previous year despite improved July rains, keeping latent supply risk on the radar. Recent reports highlight that while kharif pulses sowing has accelerated with better July rainfall, the area under pulses remains materially lower than a year ago, sustaining concerns about the eventual harvest and potential upward pressure on prices into late 2026.  Within India, kharif urad planting has increased notably in Madhya Pradesh, Bundelkhand, Rajasthan and Gujarat, partly offsetting weaker sowing elsewhere. Traders are closely monitoring monsoon performance in these regions, as both excessive and insufficient rainfall could impact yields and quality. Any renewed dry spell or localized flooding during pod formation would quickly tighten supply expectations and could further support prices in urad and related pulses.

Fundamentals & Market Structure

The current market configuration in pulses, including peas, reflects a three-way tension between low local stocks, delayed but improving monsoon conditions, and the timing of new import arrivals. For urad and pigeon peas, fundamentals are clearly tighter: limited domestic arrivals, below-normal early-season sowing and strong festival-linked demand underpin firm prices and encourage mills to secure coverage on dips. Import dependence remains significant, with Myanmar and Brazil playing a crucial role in balancing the market; any shipping or policy disruptions would quickly translate into price spikes. Chickpeas and desi lentils face more comfortable fundamentals: production appears adequate relative to current demand and government policies, and imported cargoes continue to arrive despite higher landed costs. This combination is dragging prices below support benchmarks in some regions, tempering overall pulse inflation pressure and limiting spillover into peas and other segments for the moment. Moong sits in an intermediate position, with declining summer-crop arrivals but still-muted mill demand, resulting in sideways pricing. Across the complex, market participants remain acutely focused on festival demand, import shipment schedules and monsoon performance in the main kharif pulse belts as the three key levers of price direction.

4–6 Week Market & Trading Outlook

• Price bias: Mildly firmer for urad and pigeon peas into the festival period, with downside limited by low stocks and still-below-last-year pulse acreage. Chickpeas and desi lentils are likely to stay soft to range-bound, while moong should remain broadly stable.
• Risk factors: Any renewed monsoon irregularities in August, delays or shortfalls in Myanmar/Brazil pulse exports, or tighter trade policies could quickly lift prices across the pulse complex. Conversely, a smooth inflow of imports and benign weather would cap rallies and support gradual normalization.
• Opportunities for buyers: Mills and food manufacturers may consider gradually extending coverage in urad and pigeon peas on any short-term dips ahead of peak festival demand, while maintaining a more tactical, hand-to-mouth approach in chickpeas and desi lentils given their softer tone.
• Opportunities for sellers: Producers and holders of urad and pigeon peas can use current firmness to scale up sales, particularly if local rainfall improves and new crop prospects stabilize, while remaining patient on chickpeas and lentils where upside appears more limited in the near term.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based indications)

• UK dried peas (green, marrowfat, FOB London): Sideways in the very short term, with prices expected to hold near EUR 0.97–1.27/kg given stable export interest and no major new shocks.
• Ukrainian dried peas (green and yellow, FCA Odesa): Slightly softer to sideways bias around EUR 0.21–0.30/kg, reflecting ample nearby supply and stable Black Sea logistics.
• Indian urad & pigeon peas (domestic CIF equivalents): Mildly firm bias over the next few days as mills continue restocking on limited arrivals, ahead of the main wave of August import shipments.