Peas Market: Soft Nearby Tone but Tightening Risks from Slower Sowing

Tur (pigeon pea) markets are trading softer in the short term despite an emerging tightening story on the supply side. Weak mill buying and slightly easier African-origin offers have capped prices, even as Indian kharif sowing lags and import flows remain below normal. Processed tur dal values, however, are holding firm, underlining resilient consumer demand that could support a recovery if supply concerns intensify. The current market is characterized by a disconnect between raw tur and tur dal. Spot tur has eased as mills restrict purchases to immediate needs, while dal prices remain elevated, suggesting steady retail and HoReCa off-take. At the same time, early sowing data point to a potential production risk for the 2026 crop, particularly if monsoon rains disappoint in key states. Internationally, offers from Myanmar, Mozambique and Sudan show only marginal adjustments, signaling that major exporters are not yet seeing a surplus scenario.

Prices

Domestic raw tur in India softened modestly over the week. Lemon tur slipped by roughly USD 1.06 per quintal equivalent to around USD 84.54 per quintal, while Karnataka-origin tur was quoted near USD 88.76 per quintal, converted from about ₹8,000 and ₹8,400 per quintal respectively.

In contrast, tur dal prices stayed firm. Tur dal darda traded near USD 116.24–118.35 per quintal and fatka around USD 121.52–123.63 per quintal, converted from ₹11,000–11,200 and ₹11,500–11,700 per quintal. This stability in processed product prices, despite cheaper raw tur, highlights better demand at the consumer and retail level.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, national kharif tur sowing in India reached only about 9,000 hectares by 12 June, significantly below 21,000 hectares in the same period last year. This early lag is critical, as tur is a major kharif pulse and highly dependent on timely monsoon onset and distribution.

Gujarat is an exception so far: acreage rose to around 600 hectares by 15 June compared with 168 hectares a year earlier, indicating a better local start. Nonetheless, the overall national picture remains weak, and market participants are closely monitoring monsoon progress in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Any persistent rainfall delays could further constrain 2026 crop potential.

Demand remains bifurcated. Dal mills are cautious, buying only to cover nearby requirements, which weighs on raw tur. Yet steady consumer demand keeps tur dal prices firm, suggesting that end-user consumption has not weakened materially and that pipeline stocks at the retail level may be relatively low.

Fundamentals & Trade

Internationally, Myanmar lemon tur offers for June–July 2026 shipment firmed by about USD 5 per tonne to around USD 840 per tonne C&F. Mozambique-origin white tur for September–October shipment is quoted near USD 605–610 per tonne C&F, while gajri tur is slightly weaker at USD 595–600 per tonne C&F, down by about USD 5–10 per tonne.

Sudan-origin tur container offers for July–August remain broadly steady around USD 825 per tonne C&F. Overall, import quotations signal a mildly supportive tone but not an aggressive bull market, aligning with the current balance of cautious demand and tightening forward supply expectations.

Shipments into India are described as lower than normal, reinforcing the risk that, if domestic production underperforms, the market may need to ration demand or pull additional volumes at higher prices later in the season. For now, however, subdued mill activity allows the market to absorb lower import flows without immediate price spikes.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Looking ahead into July, traders broadly expect tur dal consumption to improve, driven by seasonal demand and the need to replenish downstream inventories. If this coincides with continued lag in kharif sowing and no material pick-up in imports, the current softness in raw tur is unlikely to be sustainable.

In the very near term, upside appears capped until dal mills step back into the market with stronger buying interest. The key catalysts to watch are monsoon progress in central and western India, updated acreage data through late June, and any shift in offer levels from major origins such as Myanmar and Mozambique.

• For importers/processors: Use current softer raw tur prices to secure partial coverage for Q3–Q4 needs, but keep some flexibility in case monsoon conditions improve and sowing catches up.
• For dal mills: Maintain hand-to-mouth buying in the immediate term but be prepared to increase coverage quickly if acreage data remain weak or if dal demand strengthens faster than expected from July.
• For end users/retailers: Consider forward booking of tur dal at current levels, as firm dal prices against softer raw tur suggest limited downside and rising risk of cost escalation later in the season.

Short-Term Price View (Next 3 Days)

• Indian raw tur (spot): Slightly weak to stable; mills’ cautious buying likely keeps prices near current levels with only marginal downside.
• Tur dal (India): Firm bias; limited scope for immediate correction given steady retail demand and tighter availability of processed product.
• International C&F offers: Largely sideways; small adjustments possible in response to currency moves and freight, but no strong directional trigger expected in the next few days.