Peru Winds Down Avocado Season as Asia Demand Holds and Exporters Pivot to Grapes

Peru’s 2026 avocado export season is entering its final phase with strong year-on-year volume growth and broadly stable prices, while demand in Asia remains robust and logistics in China stay challenging. Exporters are already shifting capacity toward an early, well-priced table grape campaign, which will increasingly compete for packing and logistics resources in the coming weeks. After a season of solid performance, Peru is now a residual supplier in the global avocado pipeline, and attention is turning to how fast Chile, Colombia and Mexico will fill the gap. Asian import demand, especially from China, continues to underpin late-season shipments, but frequent typhoons and customs delays are adding risk premia to logistics costs. With European and Asian wholesale prices still firm in mid-September, the market looks balanced, yet sensitive to any surprise late volumes or weather disruptions.

Prices

Peru’s avocado campaign has closed on a note of stable pricing despite a roughly 53% export growth reported by a leading exporter, who shipped about 490 containers this season. The combination of strong volumes and steady prices points to resilient downstream demand, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Indicative wholesale and import prices in destination markets support this picture of firmness. In Spain’s main wholesale hub, recent Hass avocado quotations ranged roughly from EUR 1.4–4.5 per kg depending on quality and presentation, while premium online retail offers are around EUR 6.9–9.5 per kg, confirming sustained consumer-level margins.        Converting reported Middle East wholesale levels and recent China import indications suggests a typical global mid-range of roughly EUR 2.5–3.5 per kg for good-quality Hass, consistent with a balanced late-season market.    

Supply & Demand

Peru’s 2026 avocado export season is nearing completion, with one major exporter reporting around 490 containers shipped and only about 100,000 kg remaining to be loaded. A related export program is targeting approximately 150 containers in total, with 25 already shipped, underscoring that commercial focus is now shifting away from avocado toward grapes.

Asia has been the key incremental demand driver this season, absorbing 104 containers from this exporter alone: 90 to China, 10 to South Korea and 4 to Japan. Chinese demand remains relatively steady at an estimated 80–100 containers per week across all origins, which helps support prices even as Peru’s season tails off and other Southern Hemisphere origins hand over to Chile and Colombia in Europe.  

However, China was characterized as the most challenging destination due to frequent typhoons and customs-clearance delays, which increase transit risk and can create short-term gluts when delayed volumes arrive together. Europe remains structurally dependent on counter-season Hass from Peru between roughly April and September, but as Peru exits, European buyers are already pivoting toward Chilean and Colombian supply with some residual South African and Kenyan fruit in the tail.  

Fundamentals & Logistics

The central fundamental feature of this season is that a sharp increase in export volume from Peru has been absorbed without destabilizing prices. This suggests that structural demand growth and diversified destination portfolios are offsetting the additional supply. Europe still takes the lion’s share of Peruvian Hass exports, but incremental growth in Asia, particularly China and South Korea, is providing an additional outlet.  

From a logistics perspective, China stands out as a risk hotspot. Typhoon-related disruptions and slow customs clearance extend effective transit times, creating both quality risk and arrival peaks. Exporters are likely to remain cautious with shipment pacing and may prioritize more predictable destinations when capacity tightens or when alternative commodities such as grapes offer higher risk-adjusted returns.

At the same time, packing houses and logistics providers in southern Peru are gradually redeploying resources toward table grapes from Arequipa and other regions. Early grape prices opened very firm at USD 36–38 per 8.2 kg box and have since eased to around USD 28–32, still commercially attractive levels even after conversion to EUR, reinforcing the incentive to pivot quickly away from late avocado packing.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Peru’s main Hass avocado regions are now past the critical harvest window, and short-term weather has limited direct impact on the 2026 crop. Nonetheless, late-season showers and cooler temperatures in parts of the Andean foothills can affect harvest logistics and fruit dry matter for any remaining volumes, though the residual 100,000 kg is small in market terms.  

For the upcoming grape campaign, weather in southern coastal regions such as Arequipa will become more relevant. Early indications point to seasonally normal conditions, but exporters will closely monitor any deviations that could affect berry sizing or disease pressure, particularly given the strong price environment and the reliance on timely shipments into the U.S. window from late October onward.  

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With Peru’s avocado season effectively in its final stretch, global supply is transitioning toward Chile and Colombia for Europe and a larger role for Mexico in North America and parts of Asia. Given steady demand in China and reasonably firm wholesale prices in Europe and the Middle East, the near-term balance looks cautiously supportive, but upside is capped by the risk of overlapping late Peruvian and early Chilean arrivals.

• Exporters in Peru: Prioritize completion of remaining avocado programs to the most reliable markets and avoid speculative late shipments into China where typhoon and customs risks remain elevated.
• European importers: Maintain a slightly long position into late September as Peruvian volumes fade, but closely track Chilean and Colombian shipping data to avoid overbuying ahead of the seasonal handover.
• Asian buyers: Use any short-lived dips driven by arrival peaks in China to secure high-quality Hass, but insist on tight transit-time control and robust cold-chain documentation from suppliers.
• Producers planning 2027: The ability of markets to absorb a 50%+ export increase without price collapse suggests room for further calibrated expansion, but only with continued diversification of destinations and strict quality segmentation.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• EU wholesale hubs (e.g., Spain, Netherlands): Sideways to slightly firmer over the next three days as Peruvian supply dwindles and replacement from Chile/Colombia is still ramping.  
• China imports: Mildly firm bias, with ongoing logistics disruptions limiting effective availability despite steady container demand.  
• Middle East wholesale (e.g., Dubai): Broadly stable with a slight upside risk, tracking replacement costs from Latin America and South Africa as Peru exits.