Pineapple Holds Steady as Thai Heat Meets Softer Vietnam Moisture

The dried pineapple market is quiet on the surface, but the underlying setup is more nuanced than the flat weekly price print suggests. Current offers show Vietnamese dried pineapple FOB Hanoi at EUR 6.80/kg, unchanged week on week, while Thai-origin dried pineapple in Dordrecht on an FCA basis is quoted at EUR 4.04/kg for normal sugar 8–10 mm and EUR 4.10/kg for normal sugar 5–7 mm, also unchanged from the prior week. That stability masks a mild softening trend versus late February, especially for Thai-origin material, where prices have edged down from EUR 4.08–4.18/kg into the low EUR 4.00s. Vietnam has been steadier, slipping only marginally from EUR 6.83/kg to EUR 6.80/kg over the same period. In practical terms, the market remains price-led rather than story-led: sellers are not aggressively pushing offers higher, but neither are buyers seeing a clear catalyst for deeper discounts. Web context points to two opposing forces. On the bullish side, export demand for Vietnamese fruit and processed products remains structurally healthy, and Thailand is entering a hotter March weather window that can tighten field conditions if dryness persists. On the bearish side, Thailand’s broader fruit output is projected to rise in 2026, including pineapple, while Vietnam’s near-term weather around the north is less threatening, with showers limiting acute stress. For buyers, this means nearby coverage still looks manageable, but weather in Thailand and continued demand from Europe and Asia should be watched closely for Q2 repricing risk.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Weekly change	Trend vs late Feb	Sentiment
Pineapple dried	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	EUR 6.80	0.0%	-0.4%	Stable to firm
Pineapple dried, normal sugar 8-10 mm	Thailand	Dordrecht	FCA	EUR 4.04	0.0%	-1.0%	Stable
Pineapple dried, normal sugar 5-7 mm	Thailand	Dordrecht	FCA	EUR 4.10	0.0%	-1.9%	Stable

• Weekly picture: No change from 6 March to 13 March across all listed offers.
• 1-month picture: Thai offers have drifted lower since 13–20 February, while Vietnam has been nearly flat.
• Spread: Vietnam FOB Hanoi remains at a clear premium to Thai-origin FCA Europe offers, reflecting different logistics points, product positioning, and origin economics.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Thailand

• Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce has approved 2026 fruit price-management measures, and total pineapple production is projected at 1.3 million tons, up 10% year on year. That is a medium-term bearish supply signal for pineapple availability if weather does not materially disrupt output.
• At the same time, Thai pineapple retains export support from Asian demand channels, with Japan continuing to absorb Thai pineapple products, including processed forms.
• For dried pineapple specifically, the current flat-to-softer price pattern suggests available supply is still sufficient for prompt European demand.

Vietnam

• Vietnam continues to benefit from strong fruit and vegetable export momentum, with processed products, including dried produce, cited as an area of growth.
• Pineapple-specific reporting has highlighted stronger demand from the EU and U.S., which helps explain why Vietnamese dried pineapple prices have held firmer than Thai offers.
• However, Vietnam also faced flooding impacts on fruit production in late 2025, so supply chains may still be uneven by region and processor.

📊 Market Drivers

• Price momentum is weak but not collapsing: unchanged week on week, with only mild easing since late February.
• Thai supply outlook is larger: projected 2026 pineapple output growth argues against a sharp nearby rally unless weather stress intensifies.
• Vietnam export demand is supportive: strong processed-fruit export momentum and pineapple demand from EU/U.S. markets underpin the higher FOB Hanoi level.
• Buyer behavior: importers are likely covering hand-to-mouth because spot values are stable and there is no obvious panic in supply.
• Logistics and destination basis matter: Thai prices quoted FCA Dordrecht are already in Europe, while Vietnam is FOB Hanoi, so direct headline comparison overstates the premium without freight adjustment.

☁️ Weather outlook for key regions: TH, VN

Thailand

• Bangkok and central Thai conditions for 14–17 March 2026 are hot to very hot, with highs around 34–35°C, mostly hazy sun, and only a brief shower risk on 16 March.
• Thai official weather reporting has also pointed to hot conditions supported by southerly and southeasterly winds in early March.
• Market effect: persistent heat can raise irrigation needs and stress fruit development if moisture remains limited. For pineapple, this is not yet a severe bullish shock, but it adds upside weather risk to April pricing if the dry pattern broadens.

Vietnam

• Hanoi’s 14–17 March 2026 outlook is milder, around 23–27°C, with cloud cover and intermittent showers early in the period.
• Vietnam agrometeorological reporting indicates some unseasonal rainfall in recent weeks has helped ease drought pressure in parts of the country, though heat remains possible later in the season.
• Market effect: near-term weather in northern Vietnam looks less threatening than Thailand’s heat profile, which supports the current steady Vietnamese price tone rather than a sharp spike.

📉 Regional price assessment

Region	Current market tone	Weather risk	Supply pulse	Near-term price bias
Thailand	Stable to slightly soft	Moderate	Comfortable, with larger 2026 crop outlook	Sideways to slightly firmer if heat persists
Vietnam	Stable to firm	Low to moderate	Tighter than Thailand in current offer structure	Mostly sideways

📆 Trading outlook

• Buyers: Nearby procurement can remain disciplined; current data do not justify aggressive chasing.
• Importers in Europe: Watch Thai weather closely, because a hotter and drier second half of March could shift seller tone even if spot offers are flat today.
• Processors and traders: Vietnamese material still commands a premium; maintain origin diversification rather than relying on one source.
• Risk management: If Q2 demand improves while Thai field stress rises, current low-volatility conditions may not last.
• Commercial stance: Neutral for prompt business, cautiously constructive for forward coverage.

🔮 3-day regional price forecast

Forecast is based on the current spot pattern plus the weather outlook for Thailand and Vietnam for 15–17 March 2026.

Market	Current (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Direction
Vietnam dried pineapple FOB Hanoi	EUR 6.80	EUR 6.80	EUR 6.80-6.82	EUR 6.80-6.83	Stable
Thailand dried pineapple FCA Dordrecht 8-10 mm	EUR 4.04	EUR 4.04	EUR 4.04-4.06	EUR 4.05-4.07	Stable to slightly firmer
Thailand dried pineapple FCA Dordrecht 5-7 mm	EUR 4.10	EUR 4.10	EUR 4.10-4.12	EUR 4.11-4.13	Stable to slightly firmer

• Thailand: heat risk supports a mild upside bias, but larger crop expectations cap gains.
• Vietnam: showers and milder temperatures point to continued price stability.
• Overall: expect a sideways market with only selective firmness, not a breakout move.