Pistachios at Eight-Year High: War Disrupts Supply, Buyers Scramble

Pistachio prices have surged to an eight‑year high as the Iran conflict tightens already constrained supplies and pushes logistics costs sharply higher, forcing buyers and processors into more aggressive competition for limited volumes.

The global pistachio market enters Q2 2026 in a highly stressed balance. Supply was already tight after a smaller‑than‑expected 2025 crop and ongoing sanctions‑related frictions. The outbreak of war in late February compounded these issues, disrupting fuel, fertilizer and shipping flows through key Middle Eastern corridors and making it harder to move product out of Iran and via regional hubs in the UAE and Türkiye. With consumption of pistachio snacks and ingredients still rising and substitution possibilities limited, benchmark prices have pushed to multi‑year highs and are likely to stay elevated as long as conflict‑related disruptions persist.

📈 Prices & Market Mood

Benchmark international pistachio prices reached about US$4.57/lb in March, the highest level since May 2018, reflecting the rapid repricing of supply risk. Converting to euros, this implies roughly EUR 9.50–10.00/kg depending on quality and currency basis. Current Iranian FOB offers for in‑shell Ahmadaghaei grades cluster around EUR 7.00–9.50/kg, in line with these historical highs and showing no recent easing. U.S. benchmark prices have risen about 30% since end‑2023, underlining that tightness is global, not limited to Iranian origin.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Iran, with roughly one‑fifth of world output and around one‑third of exports, has become the focal point of supply risk. Prior to the war, sanctions, financing constraints, and communication issues were already limiting export coordination and effective availability. The late‑February escalation has further disrupted logistics via the Strait of Hormuz and regional ports, with many shipping lines cancelling fresh bookings to the Middle East from early March onward, and war‑risk insurance premiums sharply higher.

There is currently no evidence of direct damage to Iranian orchards, which are concentrated in the northeast. However, movement of nuts through key re‑export and consolidation hubs in the UAE and Türkiye is constrained, delaying shipments and reducing effective export capacity. At the same time, U.S. pistachio production is ramping up strongly, with the latest outlook pointing to record 2025 output, yet part of this relief is being offset by weaker flows to some traditional markets and logistics bottlenecks elsewhere.

On the demand side, pistachio consumption has been structurally rising as pistachio‑based snacks, confectionery, bakery and ice‑cream formulations expand in both retail and foodservice. Buyers are reluctant to remove pistachio from key products, given its unique flavor, color and marketing appeal. Substitution towards almonds, cashews or hazelnuts is occurring at the margin, but in many applications pistachio cannot be fully replaced, supporting robust underlying demand even at higher price levels.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamental tightness stems from a smaller‑than‑expected 2025 crop and an estimated global production decline of around 8% for the 2025/26 marketing year, with Iran and Türkiye both facing notable reductions. In alternate‑bearing pistachio orchards, this comes after earlier “on‑year” output, limiting short‑term flexibility to boost supply. Stocks carried into the current season are modest, so there is little buffer against further shocks.

Weather conditions in major competing origins such as California remain broadly normal so far this spring, with no immediate indication of large‑scale weather damage. Recent agronomic bulletins highlight typical early‑season irrigation and evapotranspiration patterns for tree crops, suggesting that current production expectations in the U.S. remain intact. In contrast, the main near‑term risk lies not in yields but in input costs and fertilizer availability, as Gulf‑origin nitrogen exports have been disrupted alongside other commodities, raising production costs globally.

🚢 Logistics, Risk & Trade Flows

The Iran war and related Strait of Hormuz crisis have triggered an acute logistics squeeze. Vessel crossings through Hormuz have collapsed by more than 95% since early March, with no clear timeline for full resumption of normal traffic. This has led shipping lines to halt new bookings for Middle Eastern destinations from 2 March, while war‑risk insurance and freight rates have spiked.

These logistics constraints directly affect pistachio exports from Iran and transit trade via the UAE and Türkiye, delaying shipments and reducing the effective volume that can reach markets in Europe and Asia. Import‑dependent buyers such as India, which brings in several billion euros of edible nuts annually, are already reporting disruptions and increased competition for available cargoes. For buyers that do not usually source directly from Iran, the market tightening is indirect but real, as demand shifts more heavily to U.S. and other origins.

🧾 Indicative Price Levels (EUR)

Product	Origin	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Trend vs. prior quote
Pistachio in‑shell Ahmadaghaei 24–26	Iran	Tehran, FOB	9.50	Stable at eight‑year high
Pistachio in‑shell Ahmadaghaei 28–30	Iran	Tehran, FOB	9.26	Stable at eight‑year high
Pistachio in‑shell Ahmadaghaei closed mouth 24–26	Iran	Tehran, FOB	7.01	Stable at elevated level

📆 Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Given the combination of structurally tight supply, logistics disruption in a key origin and firm demand, the near‑term price bias for pistachios remains upward to sideways at elevated levels. Upside spikes are likely on any further escalation around Hormuz or additional export restrictions by Iran, while significant downside seems limited before clear signs of logistical normalization or a materially larger harvest in competing origins become visible.

• Importers / Roasters: Prioritize securing core volumes on a rolling basis rather than waiting for a correction. Consider staggered purchases and diversified origin mix (greater U.S. share where feasible) to mitigate origin‑specific risk.
• Food manufacturers: Lock in key pistachio needs via forward contracts where possible, and accelerate product reformulation or partial nut substitution in less brand‑critical items to manage margin pressure.
• Producers / Exporters: Use current price strength to hedge a portion of expected 2025/26 sales, while monitoring logistics developments closely. Flexibility on shipment windows and routing will be essential to capture premiums.

📍 3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR, trend)

• Iranian FOB pistachios (Tehran): Sideways to slightly higher; offers firm at EUR 7.00–9.50/kg with limited spot availability.
• U.S. export parity (Europe‑delivered equivalent): Firm to higher, reflecting both strong U.S. benchmarks and rising freight and insurance costs.
• EU wholesale pistachio prices: Biased higher as importers pass through elevated replacement costs and factor in ongoing shipment delays.