Pistachios: Strong Export Pull Meets Looming Off-Year Supply Squeeze

US pistachios are moving briskly into export channels, but record 2025–26 supplies are still keeping inventories elevated while the market looks nervously toward a much smaller 2026–27 off-year crop. Export-led demand and shrinking marketable stocks in late season are starting to tighten the balance sheet, yet overall inventories remain clearly above last year. With new-crop production estimates drifting down toward 700 million pounds and sellers hesitant, forward liquidity is thinning and the price floor for quality origins is likely firming. Stable spot quotations in Europe for organic kernels and in-shell product mask a growing divergence between current oversupply and the prospect of a significantly shorter US crop from September onward.

Prices

Recent indicative offers for organic pistachios in Europe are broadly steady, signaling a consolidating market rather than outright weakness. As of 26 August 2026, indicative FOB prices are around EUR 22.1/kg for organic in-shell US roasted & salted product, EUR 41.8/kg for Spanish organic green kernels with skin, and close to EUR 69.0/kg for Italian organic kernels.

Over the past three weeks, these benchmarks have moved within a very narrow band, with only marginal upticks in Italian kernels and stable to flat quotes for Spanish and US product. This price behavior is consistent with a market still digesting record US supplies but increasingly aware that much smaller off-year availability could soon underpin higher replacement costs.

Supply & Demand

US pistachio demand in 2025–26 has been robust, led by exports. Cumulative shipments through July 2026 reached 1.215 billion pounds, up 17.5% year on year and nearly 25% above the five-year average, although still 2.5% short of the strong 2023–24 benchmark. The export channel drove most of this growth: overseas shipments climbed to 892.6 million pounds, 24% above last year and more than one-third above the five-year norm, while domestic shipments rose a modest 2.8% to 322.6 million pounds.

July itself showed some normalization after earlier strength. Total shipments of 86 million pounds were down 17.1% versus June but 11.2% higher year on year. Exports in July increased by 31.4% to 63.6 million pounds, underlining continued strong international pull, whereas domestic shipments fell 22.6% to 22.4 million pounds, pointing to some saturation or cautious buying at home late in the season.

Fundamentals & Inventories

On the supply side, the 2025–26 US crop receipts reached 1.593 billion pounds, the largest in at least six seasons. Despite strong shipments, adjusted inventory at the end of July still stood at about 1.514 billion pounds, 18.1% above the same point a year earlier. This confirms that record availability has not yet been fully absorbed and continues to cap aggressive price rallies in the near term.

However, the structure of stocks is gradually tightening. Estimated marketable inventory fell by 21.7% during July, from 381.6 million to 298.7 million pounds. While this level remains 20.6% higher year on year, it is already 11.4% below the corresponding 2023–24 figure, indicating that the portion of stocks readily available to the market is shrinking faster than total inventories. This erosion in marketable supply aligns with a firmer medium-term tone, particularly for higher grades and niche organic segments.

New-Crop Outlook & Weather

Market focus is shifting rapidly to the 2026–27 off-year crop, where production expectations have been revised down over time. Initial assessments near 800 million pounds have been replaced by market talk closer to 700 million pounds, with some participants doubting even that level. No official industry estimate has yet been released, increasing uncertainty and discouraging forward selling.

With August as the final shipment month of the current crop year before new receipts start arriving, weather conditions through harvest will be watched closely, especially in California’s main growing regions. While no acute weather shock has been widely reported in the last days, any late-season heat, harvest delays, or quality issues could disproportionately affect an already reduced off-year crop and amplify the expected tightening in exportable volumes from late 2026 onward.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers: Consider covering a higher share of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs at current flat prices, particularly for organic kernels and US in-shell, as the combination of strong 2025–26 exports and a smaller 2026–27 crop points to a firmer forward curve.
• Origin sellers: With substantial overall inventories but declining marketable stocks, maintain disciplined offer levels for premium grades; avoid heavy forward commitments until clearer 2026–27 crop estimates are available.
• Traders: Watch for basis strengthening between nearby and new-crop positions; a moderate backwardation in quality material is plausible if off-year supply estimates continue to edge lower.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• US organic in-shell (FOB): Stable to slightly firmer; limited downside as buyers begin to look beyond record 2025–26 stocks.
• EU organic kernels (ES, IT, FOB): Mostly steady; upside bias for Italian kernels on strong export pull and quality differentials.
• Overall pistachio complex: Sideways in the very short term, but underlying tightening from the forthcoming off-year crop is increasingly supportive.