Pistachios: Strong U.S. Shipments Tighten Late-Season Inventories

U.S. pistachio demand remains robust, with shipments up sharply year on year and marketable inventories tightening faster than expected as the crop year nears its close. With a smaller 2026–27 off-year crop anticipated, the market is gradually shifting from comfortably supplied to more balance‑to‑firm, especially for export‑oriented grades. The current season’s strong export pull and solid domestic offtake have pushed cumulative shipments well above last year and the five‑year average, while total receipts are already fixed. As a result, late-season availability is shrinking, and buyers are paying closer attention to coverage for the coming off-year. Indicative offers for organic kernels and in-shell product in Europe and the U.S. have been broadly stable in recent weeks, but the underlying fundamentals are turning more supportive, limiting downside and setting the stage for a potentially firmer tone into Q4.

Prices

Recent indicative offers show stable nominal prices but an increasingly constructive backdrop. Organic green pistachio kernels ex Spain (FOB Madrid) are quoted around EUR 41.75/kg, while organic pistachio kernels of Italian origin are near EUR 68.95/kg. Organic roasted and salted in-shell pistachios of U.S. origin are offered around EUR 22.03/kg FOB. All three benchmarks have been flat over the past four weeks, suggesting that buyers and sellers are in a short-term equilibrium despite tightening U.S. inventories.

Supply & Demand

U.S. pistachio shipments in June reached 103.8 million pounds, up 15.7% versus the same month last year and 6.9% above May. Exports were especially strong at 71.4 million pounds, a 20.5% year-on-year increase, while domestic shipments rose 6.3% to 32.4 million pounds. Over the first ten months of the 2025–26 crop year, total shipments climbed to 1.13 billion pounds, up 18.1% year on year and 24.1% above the five‑year average, underlining broad-based demand strength.

Exports during this ten-month period totaled 829 million pounds, an impressive 23.4% increase compared with the previous year, while domestic shipments reached 300.2 million pounds, up 5.4%. Crop receipts are complete at 1.59 billion pounds, removing any supply-side surprise from the current season. Marketable inventory fell sharply in June to 381.6 million pounds, down 22% from 489.1 million pounds in May, as late-season buying accelerated. Adjusted inventory remains high near 1.51 billion pounds but edged slightly lower month on month, indicating that the system is gradually working through the large crop.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental tone is shifting as strong shipment growth meets a finite, already-harvested crop and expectations of a smaller 2026–27 off-year harvest. Demand is well supported by both domestic and international buyers, especially in key export destinations where pistachios have solidified their position as a preferred tree nut. The rapid decline in marketable inventory into the final two months of the crop year is increasing sensitivity to any further demand surprises or logistical disruptions.

Weather in key producing regions over the coming weeks will mainly affect the outlook for the next off‑year crop rather than the current balance sheet, as 2025–26 receipts are fixed. Nonetheless, continued monitoring of summer heat and water availability in major U.S. pistachio areas is warranted, as additional stress could reinforce expectations of a smaller 2026–27 crop, adding further support to forward prices and new‑crop negotiations.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Near term (next 1–3 months): With only two months left in the crop year, firm shipments and tightening marketable inventory point to a mildly bullish undertone. Spot prices are likely to remain stable to slightly firmer, especially for higher-quality kernels and organic product.
• Medium term (into 2026–27 off-year): Expectations of a smaller off‑year crop, combined with strong export demand, suggest limited downside for forward values. Any weather-related concerns or logistical bottlenecks could trigger sharper price reactions given the leaner carryout.

Suggested strategies

• Buyers: Consider extending coverage modestly into the off‑year for core grades, especially organic kernels, while spot prices remain stable and liquidity is good. Avoid over‑buying, but reduce exposure to potential Q4–Q1 tightness.
• Producers/handlers: With inventories tightening, maintain a measured sales pace and prioritize long‑term customers. Incremental price improvements may be achievable for specialty and organic segments if demand stays firm.
• Traders: Look for carry and quality spreads; the combination of strong exports and smaller expected new crop favors a slightly long bias, particularly in high‑demand export grades.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (Key Hubs)

• Western Europe (kernels, organic and conventional): Sideways to slightly firm, with limited offers for top grades.
• U.S. export positions (in‑shell, bulk): Mostly steady, but with a firmer tone as remaining marketable stocks shrink.
• Mediterranean buyers (Italy/Spain): Stable nominal prices; mild upward bias for prompt shipment and specific sizes.