China Pine Nuts Hold Firm as Tight 2025/26 Supply Meets Steady Demand

China’s pine nut market is entering mid-March 2026 with a notably firm tone rather than a volatile one: FOB Dalian offers for Pine nuts 1200 and 950 both edged higher on 13 March, extending the slow upward drift seen since mid-February. The latest quoted prices stand at EUR 15.35/kg for type 1200 and EUR 15.95/kg for type 950, each up EUR 0.10/kg week on week. That is not a dramatic rally, but in a specialty nut market it is meaningful because it confirms that sellers are resisting discounts despite only modest week-to-week movement. The broader context helps explain why. Global pine nut supply remains structurally tight after a much smaller 2025/26 Chinese crop estimate than the bumper 2024/25 season, while Russia’s export policy and tariff-related disruptions in global nut trade continue to keep nearby availability constrained. At the same time, China remains the dominant player in pine nuts, not only as a producer but also as a processing and distribution hub, especially through Northeast China. Weather in key Chinese pine nut regions is mixed but not immediately threatening: Northeast production areas are moving through a cold-to-milder late-winter transition, while Yunnan is warmer, with wind episodes that could raise dryness concerns if they persist. For the next three days, the most likely market outcome is continued price stability to slight firmness in Dalian rather than a sharp breakout, with nearby offers supported by tight raw material availability, cautious seller behavior, and the absence of any clear bearish supply shock.

Prices

• 4-week trend: type 1200 rose from EUR 15.25/kg on 14 February to EUR 15.35/kg on 13 March; type 950 rose from EUR 15.85/kg to EUR 15.95/kg.
• 4-week gain: both grades added about EUR 0.10/kg, equal to roughly +0.66% for type 1200 and +0.63% for type 950.
• Grade spread: the premium of type 950 over type 1200 remains steady at about EUR 0.60/kg, suggesting orderly quality differentiation rather than stress-driven repricing.
• Price interpretation: the market is not surging, but it is clearly refusing to soften.

Supply & Demand

China remains the center of gravity

• Industry data indicate China continues to dominate global pine nut production and trade, while Meihekou in Jilin has become a major processing and distribution hub for the sector.
• The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council estimated China’s 2024/25 pine nut crop at 111,500 MT in-shell, but for 2025/26 the estimate drops sharply to about 62,400 MT, implying a much tighter raw material base for current-season trade.
• This smaller crop outlook is one of the strongest bullish anchors for current Chinese FOB prices.

Trade flow backdrop is supportive

• China is also influenced by external supply channels, especially Russia and Pakistan, in addition to domestic production.
• Russia has previously introduced pine nut export duties to encourage domestic processing, and China has remained the largest buyer of Russian pine nuts. Even without a fresh policy shock this week, that policy backdrop keeps imported raw material less freely available than in a fully open market.
• Pakistan has been an important supplier into China in recent years, helping diversify sourcing, but volumes are not large enough to fully offset a smaller Chinese and regional crop.
• More broadly, China’s tree nut imports weakened in the first half of 2025, while exports rose strongly, signaling a market environment in which domestic users may face tighter import cover and stronger competition for quality nuts.

Fundamentals

• Key bullish factor: current prices are being supported more by reduced 2025/26 supply expectations than by any sudden jump in end-user demand.
• Key neutral factor: recent week-to-week price changes are small, which suggests buyers are still price-sensitive.
• Key bearish risk: if downstream snack and ingredient buyers delay purchases, the market may remain flat rather than accelerate upward.

Weather outlook for CN supply regions

Northeast China: supportive to neutral in the very short term

• Meihekou, Jilin: the next several days show a swing from cold sunshine to a warmer spell, then renewed cooling. This should not materially damage dormant tree stands, but the temperature volatility reinforces caution about early-season development.
• Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang: cold and mostly dry conditions dominate, with a brief snow risk midweek. For pine nut supply, this is largely neutral near term and may help preserve soil moisture going into spring.
• Dalian logistics zone: port-area weather is cool and mostly stable, so no major logistical disruption is evident for FOB movement over the next few days.

Southwest China: watch wind and dryness

• Kunming/Yunnan region: temperatures are rising toward the low-to-mid 20s Celsius with windy conditions from 17-19 March. That pattern is not an immediate production threat, but if warm and windy weather persists deeper into spring, moisture stress risk would increase for Yunnan-origin pine resources.
• Bottom line: weather in China is not currently bearish enough to pressure prices lower; if anything, it supports the idea of a steady market with a slight upward bias because there is no sign of a sudden production improvement.

📰 Recent market drivers

• Smaller 2025/26 Chinese crop estimate: this is the dominant structural driver behind firm offers.
• Russia supply friction: export-duty policy continues to favor tighter raw material availability to foreign buyers.
• China’s broader nut trade shifts: weaker imports and stronger exports across tree nuts point to a less comfortable supply cushion domestically.
• Northeast China processing concentration: major processing hubs in Jilin strengthen China’s ability to manage supply tightly and defend export pricing.
• No immediate weather shock in CN: that keeps the market from spiking, but also removes a reason for sellers to cut prices.

Trading outlook

• Exporters: maintain a firm offer stance; the current market supports disciplined pricing rather than aggressive discounting.
• Importers: cover nearby needs steadily instead of waiting for a major correction that may not come.
• Processors: monitor Yunnan wind/dryness and Northeast spring temperature swings for early signals on the next crop cycle.
• Traders: watch Russian-origin availability and any China customs or tariff-related nut trade changes, as these could alter substitution flows.
• Risk management: the market profile favors range trading with an upward skew, not panic buying.

🔮 3-day regional price forecast (CN focus)

• Forecast bias: sideways to slightly higher.
• Upside trigger: tighter spot availability or stronger export inquiries.
• Downside trigger: buyer pushback at current FOB levels.