Walnut prices steady as weather stays benign across CN, IN and US

Walnut prices are showing an unusually calm surface in mid-March 2026, but the broader market backdrop is more nuanced. The latest offer indications in the provided dataset show no week-on-week change for the main Chinese FOB Dalian kernel grades, while Indian and U.S.-origin organic halves are also unchanged versus the prior update. That flat tape suggests a market currently driven less by immediate spot scarcity and more by a wait-and-see balance between comfortable nearby availability and still-supportive medium-term fundamentals. On the supply side, China remains the dominant global producer, with USDA tree-nut data indicating 2025/26 walnut production at roughly 1.55 million metric tons, far ahead of the United States and India. In India, domestic production is comparatively small relative to consumption needs, reinforcing the country’s role as a structurally import-reliant walnut market. In the U.S., California remains the key export engine, and the latest California Walnut Board shipment report shows strong cumulative export movement in the current marketing year, with January 2026 year-to-date export kernel shipments running above the prior year, even as domestic kernel movement is softer. Weather over the next few days across the report’s focal regions is not signaling an immediate production shock: Dalian stays cool but manageable, New Delhi turns hot and hazy, and California’s Sacramento area remains warm to very warm. For nearby pricing, that points to stability rather than breakout volatility. The near-term implication is that walnut buyers are likely to keep working hand-to-mouth, while sellers will try to defend values on the basis of solid export programs, structurally firm demand for healthy snacking ingredients, and the absence of any major weather threat in CN, IN, or the U.S. today.

Prices

Price snapshot versus four weeks ago

• China light quarter: EUR 3.35/kg on 2026-02-14 to EUR 3.30/kg on 2026-03-13 (-1.5%).
• China light amber pieces 8-12 mm: EUR 2.30/kg to EUR 2.25/kg (-2.2%).
• China light pieces 8-12 mm: EUR 2.85/kg to EUR 2.80/kg (-1.8%).
• China light broken 4-8 mm: EUR 2.95/kg to EUR 2.90/kg (-1.7%).
• India organic halves: EUR 5.40/kg to EUR 5.30/kg (-1.9%).
• U.S. organic halves: EUR 4.60/kg to EUR 4.50/kg (-2.2%).

Supply & Demand

• China remains the global heavyweight. USDA’s walnut balance sheet shows China at about 1.55 million metric tons in 2025/26, keeping the country central to global supply formation.
• India is structurally tighter. APEDA reports FY24 walnut production of 307.11 thousand metric tons and FY25 exports of only 2,134.22 metric tons, underlining that India is primarily a domestic consumption market with limited export scale.
• California export flow is supportive. The California Walnut Board reports 2025/26 year-to-date kernel exports of 144.6 million pounds through January 31, 2026, up from 127.5 million pounds a year earlier, while inshell exports also rose sharply.
• Domestic U.S. movement is softer than export movement. The same CWB report shows U.S. domestic kernel shipments at 79.4 million pounds year to date, below the prior year’s 87.2 million pounds, suggesting export demand is doing more of the heavy lifting.
• Nearby trade tone: stable Chinese offers indicate no urgent buying panic, but the lack of fresh downside despite softer February levels suggests sellers are not under major distress.

Fundamentals

These figures reflect USDA’s 2025/26 walnut summary and help explain why Indian-origin organic offers sit above Chinese and U.S. listings in the provided data. China has scale, the U.S. has export reach, and India has tighter local availability relative to use.

What the current price structure implies

• Chinese kernel prices remain the cheapest in the sample, preserving China’s competitiveness in price-sensitive channels.
• Indian organic halves command the highest premium, consistent with tighter domestic availability and organic positioning.
• U.S. organic halves sit between India and China, reflecting stronger branding/export reputation but also a larger commercial supply base than India.

📰 Recent market drivers

• California crop base improved for 2025. California Walnuts reported a 2025 production forecast of 710,000 tons, up 18% from 2024, helping explain why export programs have remained active.
• Receipts still matter more than forecast headlines. The January 2026 CWB shipment report lists final 2025/26 crop acquisition receipts at 787,815 conventional tons plus 19,532 organic tons, confirming substantial raw material availability.
• Global competition is shifting. Trade commentary indicates Ukraine’s walnut exports fell sharply in 2025, which may marginally reduce competitive pressure in some destination markets.
• India’s official walnut profile remains modest in export terms. That keeps Indian domestic prices more sensitive to local demand and imported supply than to large export surpluses.

Weather outlook by focus region

The short-range weather pattern is broadly market-neutral. Dalian’s cool conditions should not disrupt export handling materially. New Delhi’s heat is more relevant to wholesale handling and consumption conditions than to orchard output because India’s main walnut production is concentrated in northern hill states rather than Delhi itself. Sacramento’s warmth bears watching if it persists into bloom-sensitive periods, but over the next three days it does not yet point to stress severe enough to justify a weather premium in walnut prices. This is an inference based on the provided regional weather outlooks and known production geography.

Trading outlook

• Buyers: Use the current flat Chinese offer structure to cover prompt needs, but avoid overcommitting unless fresh export demand visibly accelerates.
• Importers into India: Expect Indian organic values to stay relatively elevated versus Chinese offers because India’s market is fundamentally tighter.
• U.S. sellers: Strong export shipment momentum supports attempts to defend price floors, especially on better kernel grades.
• Processors: The narrow month-on-month declines suggest limited downside unless a new wave of lower-priced origin supply appears.
• Risk watch: Monitor California shipment reports, Chinese export competitiveness, and any abrupt policy or freight disruptions affecting Asian trade lanes.

🔮 3-day regional price forecast

• China: Cool but non-disruptive weather and unchanged recent offers argue for a sideways market.
• India: Tight relative supply and premium organic positioning support a mild firm bias.
• U.S.: Warm California weather and solid export flow support price defense, but not an immediate rally.