Chad Sesame FCA Berlin Gains Amid Softer Indian FOB Hulled Values

Sesame prices for Chadian origin delivered FCA Berlin continued to firm in mid‑March, diverging from mostly softer FOB values in India and Egypt. Strong demand from Europe and China for African origins, coupled with steady global consumption growth, is underpinning the market even as broader oilseed trade remains well supplied. Weather in Chad’s main sesame belt is currently neutral to slightly supportive, with seasonally dry conditions and no immediate yield threats, keeping export potential on track for 2026 contracts. Global sesame trade is increasingly shaped by China’s appetite for African seeds and a gradual rebalancing of supply between Asia, Africa and Brazil. Analysts expect demand growth in 2026 but also caution that competition among African exporters and the rise of Brazil could cap price spikes despite local tightness in some origins. For now, Chad benefits from its positioning as a reliable African supplier into both Mediterranean and EU markets, with recent price movements in Berlin reflecting this relative strength versus Indian FOB offers. Participants should watch Chinese buying programs, freight costs into Europe, and any weather disruptions in Sahelian producers as key triggers for the next leg in prices.

Prices & Market Snapshot

Note: All prices shown in EUR/kg. Non‑EUR indications from web sources are converted at an approximate rate of 1 EUR = 1.08 USD.

Spot and Recent Physical Offers (Key References)

External market intelligence points to similar levels, with indicative offers around 1.56 EUR/kg for hulled 99.95% FCA ex‑DE and 1.56 EUR/kg for hulled EU‑grade 99.98% FOB ex‑India as of late 2025, suggesting current spot values are broadly aligned with recent regional benchmarks.

Weekly Price Change (Key Lines)

• Chad hulled 99.95% FCA Berlin: 1.55 EUR/kg, up 2.6% vs. 1.51 EUR/kg on 2026‑03‑10 and up about 3.9% vs. 1.49 EUR/kg on 2026‑03‑04.
• India hulled 99.90% FOB New Delhi: 1.70 EUR/kg, down 1.7% from 1.73 EUR/kg on 2026‑03‑06.
• Egypt natural 99% FOB Cairo: 1.57 EUR/kg, marginally down from 1.60 EUR/kg on 2026‑03‑06.

Supply, Trade Flows & Demand Context

Chad and African Supply

Recent analysis of the global sesame trade underlines Africa’s rising role, with Nigeria and Chad among leading producers supplying China and Middle Eastern markets. China’s increased demand for African sesame, driven by weak domestic harvests, has tightened export availability and supported prices into late 2025 and early 2026.

In Egypt’s import structure, Sudan remains dominant, but India, Brazil and Chad together account for a growing share of flows into Cairo’s crushing and re‑export sector, confirming Chad’s relevance in regional trade. African average export prices for sesame in 2024 were about 1,840 USD/ton (≈1.70 EUR/kg), reflecting firm underlying demand even as individual origins see short‑term corrections.

India, Brazil and Other Origins

India remains a key global supplier, but recent reports highlight that its sesame market is facing regional weather variability and competition from African and Brazilian crops. Brazil, in particular, has emerged with record crop sizes and expanding deals into Asia and Europe, reshaping trade flows and potentially capping upside for traditional exporters.

Global demand growth in 2026 is expected to be steady, supported by health‑driven food consumption and plant‑based trends, especially in high‑income markets. This demand base, combined with the structural shift of more production into Africa, underpins prices for high‑quality hulled material such as Chadian FCA Berlin offers, even when FOB benchmarks in India soften.

Fundamentals & Macro Signals

Production & Stocks Overview

• India: One of the top global producers, with sesame cultivated in multiple seasons (Kharif, pre‑rabi, summer), ensuring staggered supplies through the year. Expanded acreage in 2025 under supportive oilseed policies keeps exportable surplus adequate.
• Africa (incl. Chad): Africa provides around 70% of global sesame exports, with Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan and Chad key contributors. Output in 2024–25 was generally good, helped by relatively normal rainfall in core belts.
• Egypt: A mixed role as producer and importer; 2024 import prices averaged about 2.51k USD/ton (≈2.32 EUR/kg), slightly higher than 2023, suggesting tightness in higher‑grade product despite current FOB softening.

Demand Centers

• China: Central driver of import demand, increasingly sourcing from African origins after erratic domestic harvests.
• EU & Mediterranean: Steady requirements for bakery and confectionery keep a structural bid under high‑purity hulled sesame, particularly EU‑grade from India and Africa.
• Middle East & Japan: Remain important outlets for both natural and hulled seeds, helping absorb African and Indian supplies when Chinese buying pauses.

Weather Outlook – Chad Focus

Sesame in Chad is primarily grown under Sahelian conditions, with planting usually tied to the June–September rainy season. As of mid‑March 2026, Chad is in the late dry season, with limited rainfall across the main agricultural zones, which is typical for this time of year and not immediately impactful for standing sesame crops. Current satellite‑based assessments show no major anomalies in soil moisture versus seasonal norms.

Climate reports for the Sahel point to neutral‑to‑slightly‑above‑average temperatures heading into April–May, with rainfall for early stages of the upcoming 2026 monsoon projected near long‑term averages, albeit with elevated uncertainty linked to global climate variability. In practical terms, this suggests no strong weather‑driven threat or boost to Chad’s next sesame crop at this stage, leaving prices more sensitive to trade flows and demand rather than short‑term agronomic news.

Technical & Price Structure View

• Chad FCA Berlin, hulled 99.95%: The price has rebounded from 1.49 EUR/kg (mid‑February) to 1.55 EUR/kg (16 March), retracing earlier weakness and signaling renewed buying interest.
• Indian FOB hulled lines: A mild downtrend since late February (1.73 to 1.70 EUR/kg on key 99.90% line) suggests comfortable nearby availability and stronger competition, especially for EU‑grade product.
• Egypt FOB natural: Marginal softening (1.60 to 1.57 EUR/kg) aligns with reports of pressure on import values and lower demand in 2024–25.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Bias for Chad FCA Berlin: Mildly bullish. Tight high‑quality African hulled supply and solid European demand argue for a slightly stronger basis versus Indian FOB.
• Bias for Indian FOB hulled: Neutral to slightly bearish. Ongoing arrivals and competition from Africa/Brazil could keep offers in a narrow to slightly softer range unless China steps up buying aggressively.
• Bias for Egypt FOB natural: Sideways to slightly soft, in line with recent import price trends and weaker local currency purchasing power.

Actionable Pointers

• Buyers in EU: Consider covering a portion of Q2–Q3 2026 needs in Chadian hulled at current FCA Berlin levels around 1.55 EUR/kg, especially if logistics windows are favourable.
• Buyers flexible on origin: Evaluate Indian FOB EU‑grade offers (1.48–1.52 EUR/kg) as a hedge against further African firmness.
• Chadian and African sellers: Use current firmness to scale‑up forward sales, but keep some volumes open in case China’s demand intensifies later in 2026.

3‑Day Regional Price Forecast (Chad Origin Benchmarks)

Assumptions: No major policy changes, freight disruptions or sudden Chinese buying spikes; weather in Chad remains seasonally dry and neutral.

Indian and Egyptian reference prices are expected to remain broadly range‑bound over the same 3‑day horizon, with Indian FOB hulled likely trading around 1.68–1.72 EUR/kg and Egyptian natural around 1.55–1.60 EUR/kg, barring any sharp currency or freight moves.