Barley Market Holds Firm: Flat SFE Curve, Softening Forward Values

Feed barley futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) are currently flat across nearby contracts, while more deferred maturities have eased, signaling a market that is broadly stable in the short term but cautious further out. The SFE feed barley strip for 2026 shows minimal day‑to‑day movement, with March to November 2026 contracts unchanged on 18 March. However, the forward curve starts to soften from early 2027, where values have slipped by around 2% compared to the prior session. At the same time, Black Sea and Ukrainian physical barley offers remain broadly steady in euro terms, with only modest week‑to‑week adjustments despite ongoing geopolitical and logistical risks.

Prices & Futures Structure

The SFE feed barley curve is essentially flat through late 2026, with no traded volume recorded on 18 March 2026:

• Mar 2026: 307.50 AUD/t (≈ 187 EUR/t), unchanged day‑on‑day
• May 2026: 312.50 AUD/t (≈ 190 EUR/t), unchanged
• Jul 2026: 316.00 AUD/t (≈ 192 EUR/t), unchanged
• Sep 2026: 316.00 AUD/t (≈ 192 EUR/t), unchanged
• Nov 2026: 316.00 AUD/t (≈ 192 EUR/t), unchanged

Further out, the curve weakens slightly:

• Jan 2027: last 315.00 AUD/t (≈ 191 EUR/t), down 2.22% vs previous 322.00 AUD/t
• Jan 2028 & Jan 2029: both last 333.00 AUD/t (≈ 202 EUR/t), down 2.10% from 340.00 AUD/t

In Ukraine, recent offers for barley seeds and feed barley translate to roughly 180–250 EUR/t FOB/FCA, depending on quality and location, and have been broadly stable over the past month, with only marginal upticks on some FCA parcels as domestic demand and logistics costs fluctuate.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Global barley trade in 2025/26 is underpinned by solid feed demand, especially in China, where importers have returned strongly to Australian origins after the lifting of trade restrictions. This has reinforced demand for Australian feed barley even as overall coarse grain availability (corn and barley combined) improves.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine’s barley export projections for 2025/26 point to moderate growth on the back of better yields and carryover stocks, although total shipments remain below pre‑war potential. Physical FOB values for the first 2026 crop have been indicated around 203–205 USD/t (roughly 187–190 EUR/t), closely aligned with SFE feed barley levels when adjusted for freight and quality.

Strong export competition from the Black Sea and a generally well‑supplied global feed grain complex limit upside for Australian futures despite firm Chinese demand. Corn and other feed grains have also seen recent strength, but improved global supply prospects into 2026 temper expectations of a sustained barley price rally.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the SFE curve suggests the market perceives current feed barley values as broadly fair: nearby contracts are stable, while a modest discount is emerging on some longer‑dated positions as traders price in the possibility of larger global feed grain supplies. The absence of trading volume on the latest SFE session underscores a wait‑and‑see stance among hedgers.

Weather risk remains a key wildcard. In Australia, seasonal outlooks for March–May 2026 indicate a mixed pattern: central and eastern grain regions lean wetter than average, while parts of Western and South Australia could be drier, implying localized production and quality risks for the next crop.

In the Black Sea, current moisture and snow cover assessments are broadly supportive for winter grains, including barley, though the usual spring volatility (March–May) could still alter yield prospects. For now, these conditions argue for a fundamentally balanced global barley market, with no clear supply shock on the immediate horizon.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price trend (1–2 weeks): SFE feed barley is likely to remain range‑bound around 187–192 EUR/t, tracking moves in wheat and corn rather than leading them. Limited fresh fundamental news and low futures liquidity argue against sharp short‑term swings.
• Producers (Australia): Consider incremental hedging of 2026 crop exposures on rallies toward the upper end of the recent range, as the slight weakening of 2027–2028 contracts signals market reluctance to price in a tighter balance sheet.
• Feed buyers (Asia / Middle East): Current SFE and Black Sea values offer fair value versus historical ranges; using a mix of spot coverage and short‑dated call options (where available) can safeguard against weather‑driven spikes while retaining downside participation.
• Traders / Merchandisers: Monitor basis and freight spreads between Australian and Ukrainian origins; with futures flat but physical differentials shifting, margin opportunities are more likely to come from logistics and quality spreads than from outright price direction.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR)

• SFE feed barley (Mar–Nov 2026): Sideways to slightly soft; expected to trade broadly in a 185–193 EUR/t notional band, shadowing regional wheat.
• Black Sea / Ukraine FOB barley: Stable; prices are seen holding near 180–190 EUR/t, with buyers and sellers broadly balanced and no immediate shift in export flow fundamentals.