Rice Market Holds Firm as CBoT Softens and FOB Quotes Ease Slightly

Rice prices remain broadly stable to slightly softer: CBoT rough rice futures eased at the front, while FOB export quotations in India and Vietnam show mild downward adjustments but no sharp correction. Ample global supplies and record crops are capping upside, even as energy market tensions raise freight and input cost risks. The current market is characterized by comfortable stocks, aggressive competition among Asian exporters and a modest softening in international benchmarks. On the futures side, nearby CBoT contracts have slipped, reflecting abundant supply expectations and limited fresh demand impulses. In the physical market, Indian and Vietnamese FOB offers in USD have edged lower month-on-month, translating into small declines in EUR terms despite currency moves. Weather and monsoon risks for the 2026/27 cycle are on the radar, but immediate fundamentals remain broadly bearish-to-neutral.

Prices & Futures

On CBoT, May 2026 rough rice last traded around USD 11.28/cwt, down 0.44% versus the previous day, with low intraday volatility between USD 11.28 and 11.32. July 2026 is at USD 11.68/cwt (-0.04%), while deferred contracts into early 2027 trade slightly higher around USD 12.5–12.6/cwt, signalling a mild contango and comfortable forward supply.

Converted to EUR per tonne (approx. 1 cwt ≈ 45.36 kg, 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), this implies indicative values of roughly EUR 229/t for May 2026 and EUR 237/t for July 2026. This confirms that international benchmark prices remain well below the peaks seen during previous supply shocks and sit in a relatively narrow trading range.

Physical Market: India & Vietnam FOB

Indian FOB quotes in New Delhi have been stable since late February. For example, 1121 steam rice is offered at about EUR 0.81/kg, 1509 steam at roughly EUR 0.75/kg and 1121 creamy white sella around EUR 0.73/kg, with basmati and organic non-basmati in a higher band near EUR 1.65–1.98/kg. Across the February–March updates, these prices show a mild softening compared with earlier in February, but have now largely plateaued.

Vietnamese FOB quotations from Hanoi display a similar picture of gradual easing. Long white 5% rice has declined to around EUR 0.42/kg, Jasmine to roughly EUR 0.44/kg and Japonica to about EUR 0.52/kg, while specialty types such as black or paper-dried rice still command significant premiums above EUR 0.95/kg. Month-on-month, most Vietnamese grades have adjusted lower by a few percentage points, in line with reports of falling export prices amid strong competition among suppliers and steady harvest flows.

Fundamentals & Global Context

Fundamentally, the rice market is moving into a phase of global abundance. International agencies project world rice production in 2025/26 at a record level above 550 million tonnes, with India’s monsoon-sown crop alone estimated at a historic high of about 124.5 million tonnes. This expansion is expected to push global ending stocks to new highs, reinforcing a broadly bearish backdrop for prices.

India’s strong production, together with comfortable public stocks and an intent to support exports more actively, is increasing competitive pressure on other Asian origins. At the same time, reports point to lower assessed export prices in Vietnam and other key suppliers as buyers resist higher offers and wait for further weakness. Several analysts therefore expect international rice prices in 2026 to trade closer to their lowest levels since the late 2010s, barring major weather or policy shocks.

Weather & Risk Outlook

Short term, weather conditions in major Asian rice belts are generally favourable, with previous forecasts of above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025 underpinning strong production in India and parts of Southeast Asia. Reservoir levels and soil moisture are adequate, helping to support large plantings and high yield expectations for the current and upcoming crops.

Looking further ahead into late 2026, several meteorological centres and the WMO flag an elevated risk of El Niño emergence, which could weaken the Indian monsoon and stress crops in some producing regions. While this is not yet a base case for severe disruption, it represents a key upside risk to rice prices beyond the current marketing year, especially if combined with storm activity in the Western Pacific affecting Vietnam and other exporters.

Trading & Procurement Outlook

• Importers: With CBoT in contango and FOB India/Vietnam easing, near-term procurement can remain hand-to-mouth, but buyers should consider layering in coverage for late-2026 deliveries where basis levels are attractive, to hedge potential El Niño risks.
• Exporters & millers: Competition on FOB prices is intense; maintaining market share may require selective discounts or value-added differentiation (quality, certification, logistics reliability) rather than volume-driven strategies alone.
• Risk management: Given the ample stock situation, downside price risks still exist. Producers and traders may look at using futures and options to protect margins against further gradual declines while keeping flexibility if weather or policy shocks tighten the market later in the year.

3‑Day Price Indication (Direction, EUR)