Almond Kernels Ease Lower as Weather Risks Build in US and Spain

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are edging slightly lower in late April, even as weather risks creep higher in key growing regions. The market remains well supplied for now, but slower Spanish exports and early-season heat in California are limiting bearish momentum and could cap further downside. In Spain, local market prices for Marcona and Guara are soft but still historically elevated, with regional quotes in Reus and Murcia showing only modest week‑on‑week adjustments amid subdued export flows. California pricing remains broadly stable with only marginal easing, despite abnormal heat during and after bloom that raises quality and yield questions for the 2026/27 crop. For now, fundamentals point to a narrowly range‑bound market with a slight downward bias, but weather and the next US position updates will be watched closely.

Prices & Spreads

All prices converted approximately to EUR using 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR for comparison.

Spanish wholesale quotes around EUR 6.0/kg for Marcona and near EUR 5.1–5.3/kg for Guara at origin corroborate a slightly softer domestic tone, broadly in line with the small declines seen in FOB Madrid offers. US kernel prices remain historically competitive in euro terms, but the premium for Spanish specialty varieties (Marcona, Guara, organic) is still clearly visible.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

The latest Almond Board of California industry position report for March indicates that shipments in the 2025/26 season are slightly below last year, but total supply remains comfortable after several large crops and healthy carry‑in stocks. This underpins the current range‑bound price environment, with buyers well covered in the near term.

In Spain, exports in the current season have fallen short of 100,000 tonnes in the first seven months, signaling more product remaining in domestic channels and adding mild downward pressure to farm‑gate and wholesale prices. At the same time, specialty demand for Marcona and premium organic kernels continues to support higher relative valuations compared with standard Valencia or imported California material.

Weather Watch: US & Spain

In California, abnormal heat around and after almond bloom has been reported, with concerns that elevated temperatures could disrupt fruit set and potentially increase June drop in some orchards. Earlier in April, agronomic bulletins already highlighted rapid progression of bloom and disease‑risk monitoring as temperatures rose. While it is too early to quantify yield impacts, weather volatility is increasingly viewed as a medium‑term bullish risk factor.

Across Spain, the Iberian Peninsula experienced very wet conditions in January–February, with parts of Castilla‑La Mancha, Madrid, Castilla y León and Aragón receiving over 300% of normal precipitation. More recently, southern regions such as Andalucía are facing a mix of hot inland conditions, coastal winds and localized heavy rain episodes (“blood rain”) into the April 23–26 weekend. For almonds, the current pattern broadly supports soil moisture but also raises localized disease‑management needs during sensitive phenological stages.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Despite weather‑related headlines, the near‑term balance for almonds remains relatively comfortable. Global 2025/26 supply is still expected to be close to last season, and the latest California position data do not yet point to a sharp tightening. Slower Spanish exports are adding to local availability, tempering price gains in key producing regions.

However, pricing for Spanish Marcona and Guara remains underpinned by specialty confectionery and snack demand, with retail and foodservice offers showing significantly higher price points than bulk origin values. In the US, competitive dollar‑denominated offers and a relatively strong euro keep California kernels attractively priced for European buyers, but any confirmed yield loss from spring heat could quickly shift sentiment.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers / roasters (EU): Use the current slight easing in Spanish and US offers to extend cover modestly into early new‑crop, especially for core industrial grades (Valencia, Carmel). Avoid over‑extending on premium Marcona where weather risk could later support a rebound.
• Spanish producers / cooperatives: With export demand muted and local prices drifting lower, consider targeted forward sales on any weather‑driven rallies but avoid heavy discounting of top‑quality Marcona and organic lots.
• Industrial users in US/EU: Maintain a balanced coverage strategy. Downside appears limited by mounting weather concerns, but comfortable current supply argues against aggressive short‑term buying at any spike.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (ES & US)

• Spain (FOB Madrid, Marcona & Valencia): Slightly softer to sideways over the next three days, as wet‑but‑supportive weather and weak exports keep sellers competitive. Any intra‑day volatility is likely to be modest.
• US (FAS/FOB California equivalents for Carmel & Nonpareil): Mostly sideways with a mild downward bias, reflecting ample spot availability. Weather headlines may add a small risk premium, but tangible crop losses are not yet confirmed.