Australian Almond Mega-Portfolio Sale Highlights Strategic Shift in Global Almond Market

Institutional appetite for large-scale almond assets is meeting a rare opportunity: Aware Super is bringing a 4,738 ha, water-rich Australian almond and citrus portfolio to market, just as global fundamentals turn more supportive for almond prices. The combination of scale, high-reliability Murray River water and a long-term lease to Select Harvests positions this offering at the strategic core of the almond value chain. Spanning five properties across Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia, the portfolio combines 2,368 ha of almonds, 284 ha of citrus and a 388 ha development pipeline, all underpinned by 18,250 ML of Murray system water. At the same time, global almond markets are shifting to a more bullish tone as California acreage tightens and early 2026 crop estimates come in below expectations, while some weather-related quality issues emerge in Australia and Spain prepares for a record harvest.

Prices & Investor Sentiment

Physical almond kernel prices in the US and EU have been broadly stable to mildly firmer into early May, with recent spot offers translating roughly into the EUR 6.0–8.5/kg range for standard US and Spanish types, and a premium band around EUR 9.0–11.0/kg for organic Nonpareil and high-spec Spanish product. The tone in international reports has shifted to stable-to-firm as export demand from key destinations improves and downside price risk appears limited.

Forward-looking sentiment is increasingly constructive. A May 2026 market update points to stronger California exports and improved March shipments, alongside attention on the upcoming 2026 California Subjective Forecast as a key price catalyst. citeturn0search1 Meanwhile, wholesale data from the US East Coast indicates light offerings of California almonds, consistent with a market that is tightening at the margin. citeturn0search3 Together, these factors suggest a firmer price floor heading into the 2026/27 marketing year.

Note: USD- and local-currency offers converted to EUR at approximate current FX rates; values are indicative only.

Portfolio Fundamentals & Global Supply-Demand

The Aware Super portfolio stands out for its integrated scale and water security. It comprises 11,995 ML of Victorian Murray High Reliability entitlements and 6,255 ML of South Australian Class 3A entitlements, all sourced from the Murray River. High Reliability Murray water commands a structural premium in the Australian water market due to robust allocation history, making the water component a material, separately tradeable asset in its own right.

The almond footprint is diversified across five non-contiguous properties: Farm 7 and Mullroo in Victoria's Sunraysia region, Bunargool and Billa Downs near Euston in New South Wales, and Amaroo in South Australia's Riverland near Renmark. Amaroo is the flagship, with 1,130 ha of almonds and 284 ha of citrus supplied by drip and micro-spray irrigation. A further 388 ha of developable land provides optionality for future expansion or varietal shifts, while the remainder supports grazing and operations.

Tree age profiles are commercially attractive. Amaroo's almonds average 16.3 years, offering near-term peak productivity, while Farm 7 (9 years), Bunargool (10 years), Mullroo (13.6 years) and Billa Downs (7.8 years) provide a staggered maturity curve. This mosaic spreads yield and replanting risk over time, smoothing earnings versus a mono-cohort orchard. Direct access to multiple third-party processing facilities (Almondco, Laragon, Olam, Select Harvests and Australian Farming Services) limits single-counterparty processing risk and enhances logistical resilience.

Global Almond Market Context

Australia is one of the leading almond origins globally, with the Murray–Darling Basin as its production core. The sector has seen strong export-driven growth, particularly into India, China and Southeast Asia, and the latest national data show the industry's value surpassing EUR 1.2 billion equivalent on robust Chinese demand. citeturn0search5 This aligns with the portfolio's orientation toward export-grade production, supported by its processing linkages and established tenant.

Globally, fundamentals are tightening modestly. Terra Nova's early May 2026 estimate pegs the upcoming California crop at about 2.66 billion lbs on 1.34 million acres, below prior expectations and last year's level, supporting a bullish shift in sentiment. citeturn0search2 California almond acreage has already been contracting after several years of price and water stress, and recent commentary from producers emphasizes that reduced acreage and deficit irrigation are starting to rebalance supply with demand. citeturn0search4

At the same time, USDA's latest biannual Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade report projects global almond production to rise nearly 10% to around 1.8 million tonnes (shelled), the highest since 2020/21, implying that while Californian constraints are supportive, ample supply from other regions (including Spain and Australia) will cap extreme price spikes. citeturn0search10 Spain, for example, is targeting a record 146,000 tonnes of shelled almonds in 2026, up roughly 39% year-on-year, assuming normal weather. citeturn0search8 This mix of regional tightening and global recovery underscores the need to differentiate by quality, water security and cost of production.

Weather & Water: Key Risk Drivers

For Australian permanent crops, medium-term value is increasingly tied to water reliability rather than just land area. The portfolio's heavy weighting toward Murray High Reliability entitlements directly addresses this, insulating investors from extreme allocation volatility that has periodically hit other Murray–Darling assets. In a context where water prices remain a major input cost and risk factor, holding 18,250 ML of entitlements materially enhances both productive capacity and balance sheet resilience.

In California, the 2026 bloom concluded under generally dry, warm conditions, with some reports of rapid, "flash" bloom episodes and localized weather variability. citeturn0search16 Disease risk forecasts from the Almond Board earlier in the season pointed to manageable but location-specific fungal pressure in early spring. citeturn0search12 Overall, there have been no widespread weather shocks since bloom that would dramatically change the emerging crop trajectory, leaving market focus squarely on the USDA-NASS Subjective Forecast due on 12 May 2026. citeturn0search0

Investment Case & Transaction Outlook

The existing long-term lease to Select Harvests Limited, one of Australia's largest integrated almond companies, is central to the investment story. The lease structure provides immediate, relatively stable income and outsources operational complexity, which is particularly attractive for institutional and infrastructure-focused investors targeting agriculture exposure without day-to-day farming risk. Select Harvests' integrated processing and marketing footprint adds counterparty credibility and market access.

Expressions of interest close on 19 June 2026, with flexibility for a whole-portfolio transaction or individual asset sales. Given the scarcity of permanent planting opportunities of this scale in the almond sector, competitive bidding is likely, particularly among investors seeking a combined land-and-water platform at a time of firmer global almond pricing. Final valuation metrics will be heavily shaped by prevailing Australian water prices, long-term interest rates and investor assumptions about lease renewal terms and reversionary value on the 388 ha of developable land.

Over the next 6–12 months, portfolio earnings will be driven by the staggered yield curve across orchards, the evolution of global almond prices as the 2026 California crop size is clarified, and any strategic development of the currently undeveloped hectares. Prospective buyers will need to model replanting cycles, water market scenarios and potential changes to export demand patterns, especially in China and India.

Trading & Hedging Outlook

• For industrial buyers (EU & Asia): Use current stable-to-firm pricing to secure partial forward cover into Q4 2026, focusing on quality-differentiated origins (Australia, Spain, high-grade US Nonpareil) while retaining some flexibility ahead of the 12 May USDA Subjective Forecast.
• For producers and handlers: Consider incremental sales on rallies triggered by bullish US crop news, but avoid full pre-commitment given record or near-record production forecasts in Spain and a recovering global supply base.
• For investors in almond assets: The Aware Super portfolio illustrates the premium attached to high-reliability water and leased, institutionally managed orchards. Similar assets are likely to command stronger pricing than water-poor or operationally fragmented farms as global supply-demand gradually rebalances.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR)

• US standard kernels (Carmel/Nonpareil, CFR EU): Bias stable to slightly firmer (0–2% upside) as traders position ahead of the 12 May US forecast and in light of tightening California acreage.
• Spanish almonds (Valencia/Marcona, FOB ES): Mostly stable; expectations of a record 2026 crop may cap near-term gains despite some broader nut market firmness. citeturn0search7
• Australian-origin kernels (CIF Asia/EU): Slightly firm tone, reflecting both quality concerns in parts of the current harvest and strong strategic interest in water-secure, export-focused supply. citeturn0search2