Cashew Market Turns Firmly Bullish as Vietnam Prices Break Above $7,000/t

Vietnam’s cashew kernel export market has broken decisively above $7,000 per metric tonne, signalling a structural tightening in supply even as raw nut arrivals remain historically high. Strong imports into China, the US and Europe are driving a firm-to-bullish tone, with India losing export share and West African RCN prices only just starting to ease. The cashew market enters mid‑May with a markedly different risk profile than earlier in the year. Record raw cashew nut (RCN) flows into Vietnam and ample Cambodian supply mask a tighter balance at the kernel level, where robust Western demand and an abrupt Chinese buying surge are lifting benchmark prices. Processors, particularly in Vietnam and India, face squeezed margins as RCN remains expensive relative to kernels, encouraging cautious, short‑covering purchasing. At the same time, selective weakness in Gulf demand and weather‑related quality issues in West Africa introduce pockets of downside risk but do not offset the broader bullish trend.

Prices & Spreads

Vietnam’s average cashew kernel export price climbed above USD 7,000/t in April 2026 for the first time since March 2020, marking a key psychological and technical level for the industry. Spot benchmark W320 kernels in India’s domestic trade are even higher, quoted around USD 8.20–9.14/kg in Panruti and Mumbai, while Mangalore is near USD 8.62/kg, underscoring the strength at consumer‑proximate hubs.

FOB and FCA offers confirm the firmness but show only modest week‑on‑week moves rather than a spike. Using an approximate 1 EUR = 1.08 USD conversion, recent offers translate as follows:

Indicative African FOB prices for W320 in late April at USD 3.40–3.55/lb (≈ EUR 7.08–7.39/kg) and W210 at USD 3.90–4.10/lb (≈ EUR 8.13–8.55/kg) confirm that top grades are already trading in a higher price band, consistent with the tightening supply narrative.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

Vietnam & Cambodia – ample RCN, tight kernels. Vietnam imported 510,897 MT of RCN in April 2026 alone, with Cambodia supplying about 459,289 MT (~90%) at an average USD 1,736/MT. Over January–April, Vietnam’s RCN imports reached 1.24 million MT, up nearly 19% year‑on‑year, with import value rising over 27% to USD 2.1 billion. This confirms that raw supply, particularly from Cambodia (over 823,000 MT in Q1), is not short, even as kernel prices surge.

Demand – China leads, West steady, Gulf mixed. China’s kernel imports jumped to more than 20,000 MT in April versus about 6,615 MT in March, a threefold month‑on‑month increase that has injected strong upside momentum. US imports during January–April 2026 are running 8% above 2025, with March arrivals at 10,985 MT, up 15.6% year‑on‑year at roughly USD 6,690/MT; Vietnam supplied 88.2% of this flow. Europe is firm, with Germany up from 6,842 MT to 8,464 MT and Canada posting over 50% growth to 5,570 MT.

By contrast, Gulf markets are a drag: Iraq recorded no kernel imports in March and April and UAE volumes fell 65.3% to 2,624 MT in the first four months. Some recovery in Saudi Arabia and Israel and growth into Egypt help offset this, but the Middle East overall remains a weaker demand node, in part due to conflict‑related disruptions to logistics and financing.

Regional Fundamentals & Weather

India – exporter under pressure. India’s kernel exports fell to 1,860 MT in March 2026 from 3,036 MT a year earlier, with Q1 exports at 7,328 MT vs 9,187 MT. Average export prices eased slightly to USD 7,938/MT from USD 8,208, signalling lost competitiveness despite global firmness. At the same time, India’s RCN imports rose to 57,819 MT in March (+20.6% y/y) at a lower average USD 1,595/MT, led by Tanzania and Mozambique, but the impact of a weak rupee (above 95 per USD) is inflating local costs and squeezing processor margins.

West Africa – prices easing, quality concerns. In Côte d’Ivoire, farm‑gate RCN prices have softened to 300–375 CFA/kg, with port prices at 455–460 CFA/kg as the harvest winds down and rains degrade quality. Burkina Faso remains better supported around 500–600 CFA/kg amid strong inflows. Ghana’s campaign has slowed sharply as buyers withdraw and a 5–10% export tax remains under discussion, while Nigeria sees gradually tightening supply and localized moisture problems, though demand is still firm for well‑dried lots.

Weather snapshot (next 7–10 days). Short‑term forecasts point to seasonally typical pre‑monsoon conditions in India’s major cashew belts (Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu) and warm, intermittently wet weather across coastal Vietnam and Cambodia, which mainly affects drying logistics rather than standing crops. West African cashew zones in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria are transitioning into wetter conditions, increasing the risk of quality losses for late‑harvested nuts if drying and storage are inadequate.

Macro & Tree‑Nut Context

The broader tree‑nut complex is providing a supportive backdrop. The latest almond crop forecast for California, released on 12 May 2026, projects a marginally smaller 2026 harvest (around 2.7 billion lbs, down 1% year‑on‑year), which reinforces a narrative of slightly tighter supply in major competing nuts. This, alongside USDA’s May WASDE message of tighter grain and oilseed balances and generally firmer agricultural prices, is underpinning risk appetite and price expectations in nuts, including cashews.

Nevertheless, cashews retain their own supply‑demand idiosyncrasies. High RCN import bills in Vietnam and India, quality issues in West Africa, and rising freight and financing costs mean processors are cautious about over‑committing at current raw nut prices. Many Vietnamese packers reportedly prefer a sell‑first‑buy‑later strategy, reflecting thin parity and the risk of being caught with overpriced inventory should demand wobble.

Trading Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

• Direction: Firm to moderately bullish. Kernel prices are likely to hold above the USD 7,000/t (≈ EUR 6,480/t) floor, with upside risk if Chinese buying remains strong into late May and June.
• Buyers (roasters, retailers): Consider covering at least 2–3 months of core grades (WW320/WW240) at current levels, especially from Vietnam, as Western demand is solid and supply disruptions in some origins may support differentials.
• Importers in Europe/US: Stagger purchases to balance firm nearby prices against the possibility of some relief from easing African RCN offers later in Q2. Focus on origin and quality differentiation as West African late‑crop nuts carry higher moisture risk.
• Processors (Vietnam, India, Africa): Maintain conservative RCN buying, prioritising high‑quality, well‑dried lots. Hedge exposure where feasible, given margin compression between elevated RCN costs and still‑negotiated kernel contracts.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Vietnam FOB kernels (WW320/WW240): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms as export inquiries from China and Western buyers remain active.
• India FOB kernels (W320/W240): Steady, with a mild upward bias driven by currency weakness and tighter local availability despite subdued domestic demand.
• EU FCA (NL warehouse, standard grades): Mostly stable; any firmness likely to reflect replacement cost rather than immediate spot tightness.
• West African RCN (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria): Slightly softer at the farm‑gate as the season wraps up, but quality‑premium cargoes should retain firm EUR/kg values.