Cinnamon Prices Hold Steady as India & Vietnam Watch Weather and Fuel Costs

Cinnamon export prices from India and Vietnam are broadly stable in mid‑May, with only marginal easing since late April and no sharp moves expected in the next few days. Rising fuel costs in India slightly increase logistics pressure, but current fundamentals and weather patterns in key growing belts argue for a sideways near‑term market. Cinnamon trade is entering a seasonally quieter window, and this is reflected in flat FOB quotations in both New Delhi and Hanoi. Indian Ceylon and cassia grades are holding recent gains, while Vietnam’s cassia complex trades in a narrow range after a strong export performance in Q1. Recent energy price hikes in India and steady freight conditions in Vietnam are mildly supportive, but buyers remain price‑sensitive and well supplied. Weather in the main spice belts of southern India and northern Vietnam is mixed but not yet threatening, keeping supply risk contained for now.

Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are FOB, converted approximately to EUR using recent FX levels (1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR; 1 INR ≈ 0.011 EUR). They reflect spot indications around 16–17 May 2026.

The flat week‑on‑week picture aligns with broader commentary that cassia prices have been relatively stable in early 2026, with Vietnam’s domestic market calm despite strong export flows. Export intelligence for Vietnam also shows Q1 2026 cinnamon shipments rising while average unit export prices stayed in a moderate band, pointing to balanced fundamentals rather than a tight market.

Supply, Demand & Costs

On the supply side, Vietnam remains the key cassia origin and continues to move significant volumes of HS 0906 cinnamon to multiple destinations, indicating that pipeline stocks are healthy. Certification data for major processors in northern Vietnam also confirm substantial cultivated cassia volumes, supporting a comfortable supply outlook.

In India, cinnamon and Ceylon‑type segments are more specialty‑oriented and ride alongside the broader spice complex. Recent reports on Indian spices such as cardamom highlight firm, but not explosive, price structures at origin, which fits with the sideways tone seen in Indian cinnamon offers. Demand from importers remains steady but price‑sensitive; some buyers are testing small lots ex‑India on FOB terms, including to West Africa and the Middle East, without bidding the market significantly higher.

Cost inflation is a key differentiator between the two origins in the very short term. India has just implemented an increase of about INR 3 per litre on petrol and diesel across major cities, including New Delhi, which will incrementally raise internal transport and port‑related costs for exporters. Vietnam, by contrast, is currently more influenced by general agri‑export conditions and freight, with no fresh cassia‑specific cost shocks reported in the last few days.

Weather Outlook – India (IN) & Vietnam (VN)

India (Kerala & Tamil Nadu spice belt – key for cinnamon/Ceylon‑type bark): Forecasts for mid‑ to late May point to continued pre‑monsoon heat over much of south and central India, with the national meteorological service flagging a gradual rise in maximum temperatures over northwest India and intermittent rain episodes over the south. Localised forecasts for hill areas such as Kodaikanal in Tamil Nadu show showers and moderate temperatures around 18–21 May, suggesting no acute moisture stress for spice crops in the coming days.

Vietnam (northern central and north‑west provinces such as Yen Bai): Short‑term forecasts around 20–21 May in Yen Bai indicate typical late‑spring conditions with warm temperatures and some rainfall, but no severe anomalies. This supports normal fieldwork and harvesting where relevant. Overall, current weather patterns in both India and Vietnam are neutral to slightly supportive for cinnamon, with no immediate threat to supply in the next week.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Exports: Vietnam’s Q1 2026 cinnamon export data show higher volumes but only modest price movement, confirming that strong overseas demand is being met from available stocks.
• Inventory & Production: Certification disclosures from major Vietnamese processors indicate several hundred tonnes of cassia bark handled annually, implying comfortable working stocks for value‑added forms such as splits and broken grades.
• Cross‑commodity context: Broader agri markets in the region (e.g., rice and cashew) show mixed price signals, but without clear spill‑over into cinnamon in the last few days.
• Macro & energy: India’s fuel price hike tightens margins for exporters and could encourage slight upward adjustments to INR‑denominated port and trucking charges if sustained.

3‑Day Price Direction & Trading Outlook

India (IN) – New Delhi FOB

• Price bias (next 3 days): Sideways to mildly firm. Export offers for Ceylon sticks and organic cassia are likely to remain in their current EUR ranges, with only small upward adjustments possible if exporters pass on higher diesel costs.
• Key watchpoints: Any further fuel price action; updated monsoon onset guidance for Kerala and Tamil Nadu; opportunistic buying from Middle East and African importers.

Vietnam (VN) – Hanoi FOB

• Price bias (next 3 days): Sideways. Cassia split, broken and cigarette grades are expected to trade within their present EUR bands, given comfortable stocks and absence of fresh demand shocks.
• Key watchpoints: Short‑term export demand from South Asia and the Middle East; any logistical disruptions that could affect shipment timing rather than outright price levels.

Actionable Ideas for Market Participants

• Importers: Use the current sideways window to cover near‑term requirements in both origins; prioritise Vietnam for cost‑efficient cassia bulk and India for premium organic or Ceylon‑type specifications.
• Exporters (India): Review FOB offers to account for higher inland freight while avoiding aggressive hikes that could shift demand to Vietnam.
• Exporters (Vietnam): Consider modest discounts on lower‑grade splits/broken to accelerate pipeline movement while holding line on higher‑value cigarette and premium grades.

Overall, the cinnamon complex in India and Vietnam looks set for another 2–3 days of range‑bound trading, with weather neutral and macro‑cost factors only incrementally supportive. Barring a sudden demand spike or disruptive weather event, EUR‑denominated FOB levels should remain close to current marks through the very short term.