UK Pea Market Holds Steady as Hot Weather Arrives and Black Sea Flows Persist

UK pea prices are flat into late May, with London FOB green and marrowfat values unchanged despite early heat in key English growing areas and continued, competitively priced Ukrainian supplies. Weather in the coming days looks more like a short‑term fieldwork challenge than a yield threat, keeping the near‑term price outlook broadly sideways. A brief hot spell is pushing daytime temperatures in southern UK pea areas towards 30–34°C between 24–26 May, but without prolonged drought signals yet. Strong export logistics from Ukraine via EU “Solidarity Lanes” and alternative Black Sea routes continue to underpin ample regional pulse availability, limiting upside for UK values despite firm protein demand in Europe. Against this backdrop, buyers are well supplied and in no rush, while growers eye weather trends and 2025/26 export opportunities rather than immediate price moves.

Prices

As of 23 May 2026, UK dried pea prices (FOB London) are essentially unchanged versus mid‑May:

UK values maintain a wide premium over Ukrainian origins, reflecting quality, logistics and product differentiation rather than short‑term tightness. Global pulse commentary this week highlights generally firm but not spiking pea values, with attention on Canadian and Black Sea export competition rather than UK weather alone.

Supply & Demand

On supply, Ukraine continues to move large volumes of grains and pulses through EU “Solidarity Lanes” and its alternative Black Sea corridors. The European Commission notes that since May 2022, these routes have handled around 220 Mt of Ukrainian exports, and flows remained active through April 2026, signalling ongoing availability of Black Sea-origin pulses into Europe.

Despite sporadic attacks on infrastructure around Odesa, Ukrainian exporters report diversified logistics and only temporary suspensions at individual terminals, keeping agricultural shipments broadly on track. This caps upside for UK pea prices, as buyers can switch to cheaper Ukrainian or other European origins for feed and some food‑grade uses. Domestic UK demand remains steady, with food and canning consumption supported by stable retail pea sales and modest growth in protein‑rich diets, while feed demand tracks broader grain and protein complex trends.

Fundamentals & Weather

Weather in southern UK pea regions, including the London area, is currently very warm to hot. Forecasts for 24–26 May indicate mostly sunny conditions, with maximum temperatures around 30–34°C and minimal rainfall, raising short‑term concerns about heat stress and moisture loss in lighter soils.

At this early stage, the hot spell is brief and follows a relatively typical spring pattern, so it has not yet translated into yield downgrades or risk premia in forward prices. Market participants are attentive to any extension of high temperatures into a longer dry spell, which could tighten new‑crop prospects and support UK premiums versus Black Sea and Canadian peas into late summer. For now, stable spot prices suggest trade views current weather as a watch point rather than a driver.

Short-Term Outlook

• UK green peas (FOB London): Sideways bias over the next 3 days, with current levels around 1.02 EUR/kg expected to hold as weather risks are not yet fully priced.
• UK marrowfat peas (FOB London): Premium segment likely to remain firm but flat near 1.33 EUR/kg; export and snack demand is steady, but no immediate catalyst for a move higher.
• Ukrainian green peas (FCA Odesa): Stable to slightly firm near 0.33 EUR/kg as overall Black Sea logistics remain functional and competition among exporters caps rallies.

Trading Recommendations

• UK buyers: Maintain hand‑to‑mouth coverage in spot peas; consider modest forward coverage for Q3 if forecasts point to a prolonged dry pattern in June, but there is no urgency at current flat prices.
• UK growers: Use the current stability to review sales targets; avoid aggressive forward selling until there is more clarity on early‑summer rainfall, as even modest weather stress could justify a later price premium.
• Importers in EU/GB: Continue to leverage the discount on Ukrainian peas for feed and lower‑spec food uses, while monitoring any escalation of Black Sea disruption that could tighten basis.

3‑Day Regional Price View (GB Focus)

• London FOB – green peas: 3‑day view: stable, narrow range around 1.02 EUR/kg.
• London FOB – marrowfat peas: 3‑day view: stable to slightly firm, but largely capped near 1.33 EUR/kg by ample regional supply.
• Black Sea / Odesa FCA – green peas: 3‑day view: stable, continuing to trade at a sizeable discount to UK origin, supporting buyer interest.