Corn market steadies as US exports firm but South American crop caps rallies

US corn futures are edging higher on strong old-crop export demand and support from a firm wheat market, while ample South American supply and comfortable European imports are capping the upside for forward contracts. Overall, the global corn market is trading in a narrow, range‑bound mode: nearby prices react positively to US export news and a weaker dollar, but upgraded Brazilian crop prospects and still solid EU feed availability limit any sustained rally and keep the forward curve relatively flat.

Prices & Term Structure

On Euronext, nearby corn (June 2026) last traded around EUR 204.75/t, with August 2026 at EUR 206.25/t and November 2026 slightly lower at EUR 203.50/t, pointing to a broadly flat curve into the new marketing year. Further out, March and June 2027 trade close to EUR 206–208/t, with outer 2027/28 contracts clustered near EUR 208–209/t, underlining limited risk premia for the outer years.

At the CME, old-crop May 2026 corn is trading near 443 USc/bu (+0.7% on the day), implying roughly EUR 112–115/t FOB equivalent, while December 2026 stands around 471–473 USc/bu, close to EUR 119–120/t. The slight upward slope on the CBOT curve contrasts with the relatively flat Euronext structure, reflecting stronger export‑driven support in US nearby contracts versus well‑supplied European forward positions.

*EUR/t equivalent, based on indicative FX and standard conversion.

Supply & Demand Drivers

US export demand is the main short‑term bullish driver. Recent private sales reported by the USDA include 316,000 t of corn to Mexico (spread over 2025/26 to 2027/28) and an additional 120,000 t for the current marketing year to unknown destinations. Combined with a weaker US dollar, this has improved US export competitiveness and pushed old‑crop CBOT futures modestly higher.

On the bearish side, South American production prospects continue to improve. Brazil’s CONAB raised its total corn crop forecast to 139.6 million t, up from 138.3 million t previously. The key second (safrinha) crop is now estimated at about 109.1 million t, with the first crop also revised higher to 27.35 million t. These upgrades signal plentiful exportable supply in the second half of 2026, putting a ceiling on distant CBOT contracts and dampening any strong risk premium.

In Europe, cumulative EU corn imports since July 2025 reached 13.9 million t by mid‑April, down from 16.8 million t a year earlier. The lower import volume points to relatively comfortable domestic feed grain availability and some demand rationing, but it also implies that the EU is not facing acute tightness. Barley exports from the EU have, however, risen sharply year‑on‑year, which may gradually tighten the broader feed grain balance later in the season if weather turns less favourable.

Physical Market & Basis

Physical price indications broadly confirm the futures picture. French yellow corn FOB Paris is currently around EUR 220/t, modestly above nearby Euronext futures, reflecting freight and handling plus a small origin premium. Ukrainian corn offers remain highly competitive, with standard corn FOB Odesa near EUR 180/t and higher‑quality yellow feed grade FCA Odesa around EUR 240/t, underlining Ukraine’s role as a price‑capping supplier into the Mediterranean and EU markets.

In niche segments, popcorn from Brazil and Argentina has firmed slightly, with recent quotes in the EUR 730–820/t range (converted from EUR/kg indications), supported by steady snack demand and higher logistics costs. Organic corn starch from India has eased marginally, with FOB values drifting from about EUR 1,450/t to EUR 1,400/t, suggesting some demand pushback at earlier price levels. Overall, basis levels remain competitive for feed buyers, while specialty products show selective firmness.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in South America are broadly supportive of the revised higher Brazilian safrinha corn forecast, with no widespread stress currently threatening the new estimates. Barring a late‑season weather shock, Brazil is on track to deliver another large export surplus into world markets. This outlook is a key factor behind the softness in deferred CBOT contracts.

In the Northern Hemisphere, planting conditions in the US and Europe will become increasingly important price drivers in the coming weeks. For now, there is no evidence of major disruptions, and market attention remains focused on weekly US planting progress and any emerging dryness or excess moisture signals. As long as early planting proceeds near normal, the market is likely to stay in a wait‑and‑see, range‑trading mode.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Feed buyers in the EU: Use current flat Euronext curve around EUR 203–208/t and competitive Ukrainian offers to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026, but avoid over‑committing given sizeable Brazilian supply and normal Northern Hemisphere planting so far.
• Producers with 2026/27 crop: Consider incremental hedging on rallies in nearby and new‑crop futures, as the upgraded Brazilian outlook and softer EU import demand limit the scope for sustained price spikes absent a significant weather shock.
• Short‑term traders: Old‑crop CBOT contracts may retain a modest upward bias on further US export sales and dollar weakness, but strong resistance is likely from South American supply; favour range‑trading strategies rather than directional long bets.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Euronext Corn (Jun–Nov 26): Slightly firmer to sideways in the next 3 days, with support from US exports and wheat but capped by Brazilian crop news.
• CBOT Corn (May–Dec 26): Bias modestly upward as long as US export headlines remain positive and the dollar stays soft, but moves likely limited within a narrow band.
• Physical EU & Black Sea corn: Largely stable; any short‑term moves expected to track futures and FX rather than local fundamentals.