Lentils Navigate Soft Prices Amid Tightening Pulse Complex

Lentil prices are currently drifting slightly lower even as the broader pulse complex tightens, led by a firm rally in black gram driven by higher Myanmar import costs and steady dal-milling demand in India. This divergence suggests only limited downside remaining for lentils if cross-market spillover from black gram and other pulses extends into Q3. The pulse market in South and Southeast Asia is increasingly shaped by firming black gram values from Myanmar, steady Indian dal-processing demand and concerns over the upcoming monsoon and El Niño risk. While arrivals from India’s rabi black gram crop are still cushioning local supply, structural tension persists as producer prices sit below the Minimum Support Price, encouraging policy vigilance and import dependence. For lentils, export offers from Canada and China remain competitive in EUR, but soft demand and easing FOB quotes signal a buyer-friendly window that may narrow if the broader pulse complex continues to tighten.

Prices & Cross-Market Signals

Black gram has extended its rally across key Indian wholesale markets for a second consecutive session, with Myanmar CIF offers providing a clear upside signal. FAQ-grade black gram from Myanmar is quoted around USD 863/t CIF and SQ grade near USD 953/t for May–June shipments, feeding directly into higher wholesale quotes in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and major South Indian hubs. Domestic prices in Delhi, for example, have firmed by roughly USD 0.5–1.0 per quintal over the latest session, with similar gains in Guntur, Vijayawada, Jaipur and Hapur as mills and stockists step back from aggressive selling at lower levels.

In contrast, lentil export offers show a mild easing bias. Recent FOB levels in Ottawa indicate Canadian green lentils (Laird) around EUR 1.60/kg and Eston green at about EUR 1.56/kg, both down roughly 3–4% over the past month. Red football lentils hover near EUR 2.50/kg FOB, a modest retreat from late April. Chinese small green lentils are quoted lower, around EUR 1.13–1.20/kg FOB Beijing, reinforcing a competitive floor in Asia-facing trade routes. These values sit comfortably within the broader 2026 Canadian wholesale range of about USD 1.35–2.03/kg, keeping lentil export offers attractive for price-sensitive buyers.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

The pulse complex is being reshaped by developments in black gram. Indian demand from dal-processing mills is steady, with consumption seasonally strong and importers facing higher replacement costs from Myanmar. Despite shipments running ahead of last year and rabi black gram arrivals remaining steady in Andhra Pradesh, producer prices still sit below India’s Minimum Support Price of roughly USD 82.5 per quintal, signalling ongoing structural tightness. Summer black gram sowing has increased in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, but meaningful new-crop arrivals are only expected toward the end of May, leaving a near-term supply gap.

For lentils, recent analysis indicates demand is more balanced and, in some destination markets, even described as difficult, with buyers resisting higher prices. Exportable supplies from Canada and China are currently adequate, and in EUR terms offers remain broadly stable to slightly softer. However, India’s decision to maintain a liberal pulse import policy into 2027 and its five-year import agreement with Myanmar for black gram and pigeon peas underline a strategic reliance on imported pulses. This, combined with firmer black gram values and a potentially below-normal Indian monsoon, raises the medium-term risk that importers could start to secure lentil coverage more aggressively if other pulse supplies tighten.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Black gram fundamentals are clearly tightening. Rising CIF values from Myanmar for two consecutive sessions are already transmitting into Indian wholesale markets, and traders expect further pass-through if external prices continue to climb. Domestic stockist selling is described as thin, with mills buying selectively on dips, a pattern that usually signals underlying support rather than speculative froth. Over the next 2–4 weeks, price direction will hinge on the scale and timing of summer black gram arrivals from central India and the trajectory of Myanmar export offers; absent a surge in local supply, another USD 1–2 per quintal upside in black gram is plausible.

For lentils, the fundamental picture is softer but not weak. Recent Canadian planting intentions point to a modest reduction in lentil area for 2026/27, suggesting that today’s comfortable export availability may not persist if weather or demand shift. Global climate guidance for April–June 2026 points to a rapid transition into El Niño conditions, with a strong warm ENSO state possible by early summer. This raises the risk of uneven rainfall patterns in key pulse-growing regions, including South Asia, just as India’s meteorological services and private forecasters signal the possibility of a below-normal southwest monsoon. While the immediate impact is limited, pulses and oilseeds are among the most vulnerable crops to monsoon variability, warranting closer attention to weather updates in the coming weeks.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

In the near term, black gram’s firm tone acts as a supportive cross-market signal for lentils, even as direct lentil demand remains patchy. With Canadian and Chinese lentil offers in EUR still competitive and drifting slightly lower, importers and processors currently enjoy a favourable buying window. However, if Myanmar black gram prices continue to rise and Indian summer arrivals disappoint, spillover demand could tighten the lentil balance more quickly than current spot prices imply.

• Importers / Traders: Use current softness in green and red lentil FOB prices (EUR 1.5–2.5/kg range) to extend coverage modestly into late Q2/Q3, focusing on high-volume grades (Laird, Eston, red football). Prioritise flexible shipment windows to hedge against logistics or weather disruptions.
• Processors: Maintain a balanced book: avoid chasing offers higher in sympathy with black gram for now, but consider incremental forward purchases if indications emerge of further tightening in Myanmar pulse exports or if monsoon forecasts deteriorate.
• Producers: In Canada and China, recent price easing argues for patience rather than aggressive forward selling at current levels, especially for higher-quality or niche grades that could benefit from any broader pulse rally later in the season.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Canadian green lentils (FOB Ottawa, EUR): Sideways to slightly softer, with offers expected to trade in a narrow band around current levels (±1–2%).
• Canadian red lentils (FOB Ottawa, EUR): Mostly steady; downside appears limited as cross-market pulse signals remain firm.
• Chinese small green lentils (FOB Beijing, EUR): Stable to marginally weaker, reflecting competitive positioning into Asian markets and no immediate supply stress.