Almond Market Tightens as US Shipments Fall and India Leads Price Firming

US almond exports fell sharply in April 2026 while Indian prices and premiums firmed, leaving the global market tighter at the margin despite currency and geopolitical headwinds. With US production edging lower and the Iran conflict disrupting trade flows, price volatility rather than a clear directional trend is the dominant risk into early summer. The almond market is entering a structurally more finely balanced phase. April 2026 US shipments dropped nearly 9% year-on-year to about 220 million lbs as buyers in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa pulled back under pressure from a strong US dollar and conflict-related disruptions. At the same time, domestic prices in India are rising on reduced importer selling and steady consumer demand, even in a seasonally quieter consumption window. European buyers are still well supplied for now, but tightening US availability and higher risk premiums suggest forward cover at current levels deserves serious consideration.

Prices & Regional Differentials

In India’s Delhi wholesale market, California almonds gained USD 10.54 per 40 kg in the latest session, with prices now assessed around USD 261–265 per 40 kg. Almond kernels strengthened by roughly USD 0.16–0.21 per kg to USD 9.06–9.17 per kg, while Gurbandi almonds traded slightly higher at USD 274–279 per 40 kg, underscoring India’s willingness to pay for premium origins.

Converted to EUR (using an indicative 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), Delhi wholesale values imply shell-equivalent prices in the range of roughly EUR 5.99–6.09 per kg and kernel levels near EUR 8.34–8.43 per kg. These on-the-ground prices are consistent with a modestly firm undertone despite constrained international purchasing power. Parallel wholesale indicators from Indian markets around mid-May show almond prices close to the equivalent of EUR 10 per kg, confirming resilient downstream demand even as imports moderate.

Spot Quotes Snapshot (Kernels)

Note: USD product prices converted to EUR with an approximate 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR where relevant; table rounded for clarity.

Supply & Demand Balance

US almond exports in April 2026 fell 8.79% year-on-year to 219.9 million lbs, marking a decisive slowdown in off-take. The season opened with sizeable beginning stocks of 483.81 million lbs, but the latest USDA forecast pegs US production at 2.70 billion lbs, down 1% year-on-year on an estimated yield of 1,940 lbs/acre. This reinforces a narrative of gradually normalising, not burdensome, global supply.

India imported 995 containers of almonds and only 5 containers of kernels in April, a clear pullback from March’s 1,230 containers of almonds and 11 containers of kernels. Western Europe received 1,173 containers of almonds plus 7 of kernels, Britain 65 containers, and Eastern Europe 125 containers plus one kernel container, indicating that European pipeline supply remains adequate for now. However, with trade data already showing weaker US shipments and India’s import appetite softening, the marginal tightening of available supply is evident in firmer domestic prices in India.

Macro & Geopolitical Drivers

The Iran conflict is exerting a double squeeze on global almond demand. First, a stronger US dollar against importers’ currencies has eroded purchasing power, particularly in India, Pakistan, the UAE, Turkey and North Africa. Second, disrupted trade flows across the Middle East and through key corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz are raising freight costs and transit times, dampening buyers’ willingness to commit to forward coverage. Recent analyses of the Iran war highlight broader disruptions to maritime trade, energy and fertilizer markets, confirming that agri‑food supply chains face elevated cost and logistics risk.

For almonds, these macro headwinds manifest as lower near-term shipment volumes rather than an outright supply shortage. Importers in price-sensitive markets are reluctant to chase higher dollar-denominated offers, preferring to run down existing stocks. This behaviour helps explain why US export availability is tightening while some buyers remain cautious, reinforcing a backdrop of two-way price risk and episodic volatility rather than a uni-directional bull run.

Weather & Production Outlook

The current USDA production forecast for US almonds stands at 2.70 billion lbs with a yield of 1,940 lbs/acre, marginally below last season. This reflects both slightly lower bearing acreage and weather-related constraints earlier in the season, but does not yet signal a severe supply shock. Recent commentary around the May almond forecast confirms that the market has largely priced in this modest decline from last year’s 2.715 billion lbs.

Into the next quarter, weather in California’s Central Valley will remain a key watch point, particularly heat waves and water allocations that could affect kernel quality and size distribution. While no immediate extreme event is dominating the outlook, any late-season stress could amplify the tightening effect already visible from lower yields and constrained logistics, especially if geopolitical tensions linger or energy prices spike again.

Short-Term Market Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

The near-term structure of the almond market is one of firm undertones in key consuming regions, tempered by macro and currency headwinds. In India, reduced importer selling and the drawdown of arrivals are expected to keep prices firm to slightly higher over the next two to four weeks. Domestic demand for premium dry fruits remains resilient, supported by consumer habits and substitution from other rising-priced nuts and dried fruits.

Globally, the combination of lower US production, shrinking export shipments and elevated freight and insurance costs due to the Iran conflict argues for continued price volatility. A swift easing of tensions or meaningful dollar weakness would constitute the main downside risk, as this could unlock a new wave of contracted supply from importers currently sitting on the sidelines. Absent such a shift, the balance of risks for kernels and premium varieties leans slightly to the upside, especially for nearby positions.

Key Risks to Monitor

• Geopolitical de‑escalation: A faster-than-expected easing of the Iran conflict, reopening key shipping routes and reducing freight premiums, could prompt renewed buying and alter price dynamics quickly.
• Currency swings: Any reversal of US dollar strength would immediately improve importers’ purchasing power, potentially increasing demand from India, the Middle East and North Africa.
• Weather surprises: Adverse late-season weather in California or Spain could tighten high-quality kernel availability and support premiums.
• Demand rationing: Prolonged high prices relative to household incomes in emerging markets could eventually temper consumption growth and weigh on prices later in the season.

Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• Indian importers: With domestic prices firm and arrivals down month-on-month, consider staggered cover rather than aggressive forward-buying, but avoid running inventories too low given ongoing logistics risk.
• European buyers: US export availability is tightening; securing partial forward cover at current EUR levels for Q3 looks prudent, especially for premium Nonpareil and Marcona equivalents.
• US sellers: Maintain offer discipline; the combination of slightly lower production and geopolitical risk favours holding back from heavy discounting, while remaining flexible for currency‑advantaged buyers.
• Industry users (confectionery, snacks): Use current relative stability to extend coverage modestly into early Q4, focusing on quality-differentiated contracts to hedge against potential grade-specific tightness.

3-Day Directional Price Indication

• US export markets (kernels, EUR basis): Sideways to slightly firm; small dips on risk sentiment likely to be met by end‑user and trade buying.
• India (Delhi wholesale): Firm bias; limited importer selling and steady retail demand should keep prices supported.
• Europe (Spain FOB benchmarks): Broadly stable with a mild upside skew as buyers evaluate forward needs against geopolitical uncertainty.