China beans market: Jan–Mar 2026 mung bean exports down over 34% but FOB prices remain broadly steady. Key impacts for Japan, ASEAN and traders.
Prices & Short-Term Trend
Chinese FOB prices in Beijing (EUR/tonne equivalents) show a broadly sideways to mildly softer trend in May:
Despite a sharp decline in early‑2026 mung bean exports, FOB levels have only eased marginally. This indicates that domestic and regional demand, together with disciplined farmer and trader selling, are preventing a deeper correction for now.
Supply & Demand Dynamics
From January to March 2026, China’s mung bean export value reached about USD 28.1 million, down 34% year on year, with volumes falling 36% to roughly 14.5 thousand tonnes. This marks a clear contraction in external demand versus the same period in 2025, although March showed a notable month‑on‑month rebound, with export value up 58.5% and volume up 47.1%.
Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan (China) and Vietnam remain the core export destinations, with Japan alone accounting for just over 60% of total mung bean export value in 2025. Recently, exports to the US and South Korea have weakened, increasing the market’s dependence on a few Asian buyers. This concentration heightens vulnerability to any further adjustment in Japanese or Southeast Asian demand.
Fundamentals & Regional Weather
Current price behavior across mung, kidney and adzuki beans suggests that the export slowdown has not yet translated into oversupply pressure on the domestic market. Slight week‑on‑week declines in organic mung beans and some kidney bean types coexist with stable or mildly firmer levels for adzuki beans, hinting at relatively balanced inventories.
Over the next three days, key producing areas in Northeast and North China (e.g., Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) face generally moderate temperatures with a mix of sun, clouds and some showers. Conditions in Harbin are warm with intermittent storms, while Hohhot stays mostly dry with comfortable daytime highs. This pattern supports fieldwork and early‑season crop development, limiting immediate weather‑related price risk.
Market Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Short term (weeks): With exports down but not collapsing and domestic balance relatively firm, beans prices are likely to remain range‑bound with a mild downward bias in segments most exposed to export demand, notably mung beans.
- Medium term (into new crop): Weather so far is non‑threatening; a normal crop would keep supply comfortable. Any renewed buying from Japan or Southeast Asia could quickly tighten the export balance, especially if farmers delay sales in anticipation of a recovery.
Trading recommendations
- Exporters: Consider locking in forward sales on any short‑term price rallies in mung beans, as current export statistics point to softer demand versus 2025 and downside risk if March’s rebound does not sustain.
- Importers in Japan/ASEAN: Use present stability in FOB Beijing levels to secure medium‑term coverage, particularly for higher‑spec mung and adzuki, before new‑crop weather or currency moves introduce volatility.
- Domestic buyers in China: Stagger purchases; avoid chasing the market higher but be prepared that strong domestic use can keep top‑quality adzuki and specialty kidney beans relatively firm despite weaker mung exports.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication (FOB, Trend in EUR)
- CN Beijing – Mung beans (organic & 3.8 mm up): Slightly softer to sideways over the next 3 days as export demand remains subdued.
- CN Beijing – Kidney beans (dark red, black): Mostly sideways; limited external pressure and stable domestic usage.
- CN Beijing – Adzuki beans (red): Sideways to mildly firm, supported by relatively tighter balance and niche demand.