Almond Market Enters a New Era as California Abandons USDA Forecasts
Almond prices soften slightly while California exits USDA forecasting, raising uncertainty but supporting a more cautious, data‑driven market.
Prices & Market Tone
Recent almond kernel offers indicate a modest, broad-based easing in EUR terms. US-origin Carmel SSR kernels (18/20, FAS Washington D.C.) have edged down from about EUR 6.65/kg at the start of May to roughly EUR 6.55–6.60/kg by May 22. Nonpareil organic kernels around 27/30 count have slipped only marginally, from about EUR 9.27/kg to roughly EUR 9.18–9.23/kg over the same period. Spanish Marcona, Valencia and Guara kernels are showing a similar pattern of small week-on-week declines after earlier firmness, with most mainstream grades now clustered between about EUR 5.40 and 6.50/kg, and premium Marcona and organic lines in the EUR 8.00–11.30/kg range.
USDA terminal market data for California almonds in US wholesale channels point to a broadly steady physical environment, with recent quotes showing no dramatic break from prior weeks, consistent with the only gradual softening seen in kernel offers in EUR. Overall, the price tone is best described as slightly pressured but orderly: there is no evidence of a sharp sell‑off, and current levels remain well above the troughs seen during the last severe oversupply phase.
Supply, Demand & the Forecasting Regime Shift
California, which supplies more than three-quarters of global almonds, is fundamentally reshaping how the market anticipates crops. For decades, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service provided a two-step annual forecast, including a July objective measurement based on nut counts from sampled orchards. The controversial 3 billion‑pound forecast last year signaled oversupply to buyers, triggering a rapid ~20% price drop and temporarily wiping out about USD 1 billion in crop value before prices recovered. This experience has convinced many growers that traditional sampling methods no longer capture the sector’s expanded and diversified orchard base.
Almond acreage in California has roughly tripled in 30 years, increasing variability across regions, water availability and microclimates. That diversity undermines the representativeness of small sample-based surveys and has heightened growers’ perception that single, public forecasts can unintentionally amplify market volatility. In December, the Almond Board of California therefore voted to stop funding the USDA objective measurement program, bringing more than 50 years of continuity to an end. The decision reflects a preference for reducing the risk of forecast-induced sell‑offs, even at the cost of less centralized information.
In place of the old system, the industry is moving toward a mosaic of private, technology-driven tools. Companies such as Land IQ are working with the Almond Board on forecasting techniques that integrate satellite data, remote sensing, artificial intelligence and GIS mapping, backed by field verification. Other data-science providers are entering the space with models that blend weather data, satellite imagery and historical yield records to generate estimates at both farm and state level. However, weather variability, water shortages, rising input costs and uneven orchard performance still limit the precision of any model, keeping a wide band of uncertainty around true crop size.
Recent industry position data for April 2026 show solid export shipments and manageable stocks, suggesting no imminent glut. At the same time, a fresh May 1 subjective production forecast pegs the upcoming California crop at around 2.7 billion pounds, only slightly below the prior season. Without the July objective measurement, this subjective estimate may carry more psychological weight than in previous years, but market participants now appear more cautious in extrapolating any single number into aggressive pricing moves.
Fundamentals & Weather Context
Fundamentally, the almond balance sheet entering the 2026/27 marketing year looks more balanced than in the recent oversupply period, but not tight. Strong export shipments in late 2025 and early 2026 helped draw down swollen inventories, stabilizing kernels despite a firm US dollar. Nevertheless, global demand growth remains uneven across regions, and competition from other nuts, particularly walnuts and pistachios, continues to cap almond price rallies.
Weather during the 2026 bloom and early nut set has generally been benign rather than extreme across much of California, with May conditions in key producing counties trending seasonally warm with limited precipitation. However, the longer-term backdrop is still marked by high inter-annual variability: recent years have alternated between drought and intense rainfall, complicating water planning and orchard management. Disease-risk bulletins this spring highlighted localized periods of elevated infection risk, but no widespread catastrophic events have been reported so far. Together, these factors argue for a reasonably healthy but not record-breaking crop, with localized yield variance and continued sensitivity to irrigation constraints.
Strategic Implications of the New Forecasting Landscape
The end of USDA objective measurements represents a structural regime change for price discovery and risk management. Previously, a small number of official release dates served as focal points for market repricing and contract negotiations. Going forward, market participants will likely rely on a blend of private satellite-based estimates, handler surveys, water allocation updates and monthly position reports. This may smooth some of the sharp, forecast-driven shocks but also extends the period during which expectations can drift, potentially encouraging more speculative positioning around partial data.
Growers may benefit from reduced downside shocks if no single forecast can suddenly signal dramatic oversupply. Yet they also lose a widely trusted reference point for planning sales, hedging and financing. Handlers and exporters will need to invest more in proprietary analytics and on-the-ground intelligence to reassure buyers about availability. For buyers, the fragmentation of information raises the risk of either overpaying in years of hidden surplus or being under-covered in years when private estimates understate shortfalls. In this environment, diversified sourcing between California and Mediterranean origins such as Spain is becoming more valuable as a hedge against regional weather and data risk.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Guidance
Over the next few weeks, absent major weather surprises, almond prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly softer, as buyers use the recent subjective forecast and position data to fine-tune coverage rather than mount aggressive campaigns. The modest easing seen in both US and Spanish kernel offers since early May suggests that sellers are willing to negotiate within a narrow band but are not under acute pressure to liquidate. Logistical disruptions in some export corridors, including the Middle East, are adding localized costs and delays, but have not yet translated into sustained global price spikes.
Trading Outlook – Key Moves
- Industrial buyers / roasters: Use the current slightly softer tone to extend coverage modestly into Q3–Q4 2026, focusing on core Nonpareil and Carmel grades, while avoiding overcommitment until more clarity emerges from summer weather and updated shipment reports.
- Retail and branded players: Consider layering in forward purchases for premium and organic specifications, where differentials remain relatively stable, to protect margins against potential quality‑related tightness later in the season.
- Growers: Diversify pricing strategies away from just spot and single‑date sales; combine staged sales with optionality (where available) and closely track private forecasting updates and water allocations to time additional marketing.
- Traders / handlers: Increase investment in independent crop-mapping and yield models to replace the lost signal from USDA objective measurements, and emphasize transparency with counterparties to maintain confidence in offered volumes.
3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- US (California-origin kernels, export basis EUR): Sideways to mildly softer; spot trade expected to remain within roughly ±1–2% of current levels as liquidity is moderate.
- Spain (Marcona, Valencia, Guara kernels): Mostly stable with a slight downward bias, tracking the softer tone in international benchmarks but supported by still-solid local demand.
- EU import hubs (Rotterdam / Med ports, EUR basis): Stable; basis differentials versus origin may narrow slightly if freight and insurance disruptions ease in select trade lanes.