Rape Seed Market Analysis: Prices Hold Steady Amid Oilseed Volatility and Weather Risks

The global rape seed market is navigating a period of relative price stability, even as volatility in related oilseed markets and shifting weather patterns create uncertainty for the weeks ahead. Recent data shows that rape seed prices in key origins such as Ukraine and France have remained flat over the past week, with FCA Kyiv and Odesa offers holding at $0.49/kg and $0.51/kg respectively, and FOB Paris at $0.54/kg. This stability comes despite a backdrop of pressure from weaker palm oil and soya oil prices, as well as concerns over increasing palm oil production and stocks in Malaysia.

Meanwhile, weather outlooks for major rape seed growing regions remain mixed, with rainfall deficits in parts of Eastern Europe and France potentially impacting crop development and yields. Market participants are closely watching USDA reports, European crop forecasts, and speculative positioning for signs of directional change. With global oilseed supply chains interlinked, developments in palm and soya oil markets are likely to influence rape seed prices moving forward. For now, the market sentiment is neutral, but traders are advised to monitor weather updates and external market signals closely for potential shifts in the coming days.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.49	0.49	2025-05-23	Neutral
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.51	0.51	2025-05-23	Neutral
France	Paris	FOB	0.54	0.54	2025-05-22	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• European rape seed production is forecasted to be slightly below last year’s levels due to dry spring conditions in France and Germany.
• Ukraine’s exportable surplus is steady, but logistical challenges persist due to regional tensions and infrastructure constraints.
• Global demand remains robust, particularly from the biodiesel and feed sectors, but high stocks of palm and soya oil are capping upside.
• China’s import demand for oilseeds is strong, but competition from other oils may limit additional rape seed buying.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: No major surprises in the latest WASDE, but attention is on June acreage and stock updates.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains largely neutral, with no significant build-up of long or short positions in European rape seed futures.
• Inventories: EU and Black Sea stocks are adequate, but any weather-driven yield losses could tighten balances quickly.
• Competing Oils: Malaysian palm oil futures traded in a narrow range, pressured by weaker soya oil prices and rising stocks. August palm oil closed at 3,829 MYR/t (908.42 USD/t), while Dalian soya oil fell 1.1% and Chinese palm oil dropped 1.0%.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• France & Germany: Rainfall deficits persist in key growing regions, raising concerns about pod filling and final yields. Some localised showers are expected, but not enough to offset earlier dryness.
• Ukraine: Adequate soil moisture in central and eastern regions, but southern areas face moderate drought stress. Temperatures are forecast to remain above seasonal norms.
• Canada: Prairie conditions are favourable, with timely rains supporting crop establishment.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output Estimate (Mt)	2023/24 Output (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
EU	18.5	19.1	2.2
Ukraine	4.1	4.2	0.7
Canada	18.8	18.3	2.5
China	14.7	14.5	3.1

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weather developments in France, Germany, and Ukraine for potential yield impacts.
• Watch palm and soya oil markets for spillover effects on rape seed prices.
• Consider short-term hedges if dryness persists in EU growing regions.
• Buyers can take advantage of current stable prices, but remain alert to volatility spikes from weather or geopolitical events.
• Producers should lock in margins where possible, especially if input costs are rising.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast (USD/kg)	Trend
Kyiv (FCA)	0.49	0.49 – 0.50	Stable
Odesa (FCA)	0.51	0.51 – 0.52	Stable
Paris (FOB)	0.54	0.54 – 0.55	Stable