Rapeseed Extends Rally – Market Climbs to Highest Since March

🌾 Rapeseed Extends Rally – Market Climbs to Highest Since March

Rapeseed Extends Rally – Market Climbs to Highest Since March

Rapeseed futures continued their upward momentum on Tuesday, supported by soaring vegetable oil markets and tight global stocks. The August contract reached its highest price in nearly two months.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

Rapeseed futures at the Euronext (MATIF) recorded another strong session on Tuesday. The August 2025 contract rose by €8.50 to €489.50/t, marking the highest closing price since March 2025.

All forward contracts posted similar gains, supported by firm spot market prices and rising plant oil values globally.

Contract	Price (€/t)	Daily Change	Trend
Aug 25	489.50	+8.50	⬆️
Nov 25	492.75	+7.75*	⬆️
Feb 26	494.75	+7.50*	⬆️

*Estimated based on inter-month spread behaviour.

Meanwhile, ICE Canola contracts surged by over 2.6%, led by the July contract, which climbed CAD 18.70 to 729.30. Tight Canadian inventories and undervaluation relative to other vegetable oils spurred buying.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Strong Vegetable Oil Complex
  Soyoil and palm oil rallied, lifting sentiment across oilseeds.
  – Soyoil rose sharply on clean fuel tax credit extension proposals in the U.S.
  – Palm oil advanced on low Ringgit and bullish spreads.
• Political Support in the U.S.
  U.S. lawmakers proposed extending the 45Z biofuel tax credit to 2031, which is expected to lift domestic soyoil demand.
• U.S.–China Trade Thaw
  Following a temporary tariff rollback, President Trump hinted at direct talks with China’s Xi Jinping, creating a 90-day window for a deal.
• Canadian Canola Surge
  ICE contracts rose across all maturities, led by strong commercial interest and firming domestic crush margins.
• Spot Market Strength
  German physical rapeseed prices (franco oil mill) were reported between €478 and €486/t, supporting futures.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

The technical breakout continues with volume confirmation. A close above €490 on the August contract could open room toward €495–500.

Strategy:
– Momentum traders may hold positions with trailing stops.
– Producers can look to secure pre-harvest premiums near multi-month highs.
– Watch for external oilseed corrections.

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Aug 25 Contract)

Date	Expected Range (€/t)	Forecast
May 15	487–492	⬆️ Strong
May 16	488–494	⬆️ Extended
May 17	486–495	➡️ Volatile

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Rapeseed Regions

Region	Trend	Commentary
France	☀️ Warm & dry	Supports pod development – slight stress potential
Germany/Poland	🌤️ Dry phases	Improving moisture is expected next week
Ukraine	☀️ Hot & dry	Risk of yield loss without follow-up rain
Canadian Prairies	🌦️ Dry start	Good sowing pace, watch for a cooler spell next week

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