📈 Rapeseed Futures Stay Firm – Market Eyes Ukraine and U.S. Exports
Rapeseed prices remain resilient amid a stronger euro and tightening supplies from Ukraine. Gains in soybean oil and signs of trade thaw between the U.S. and China lifted oilseed sentiment.
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📊 Market Overview – April 16, 2025
📌 Euronext Rapeseed (MATIF)
| Contract | Closing Price (€/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 541.50 | -3.25 |
| August 2025 | 480.75 | +2.25 |
| November 2025 | 483.50 | +– |
📌 ICE Canola (CAD/t)
| Contract | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 673.80 | +4.90 |
| July 2025 | 680.70 | +4.20 |
| November 2025 | 652.70 | +3.70 |
📌 CBOT Soybeans
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | 1,050.25 | +3.75 |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- 🇺🇸 U.S.–China Trade Outlook Improves
A Bloomberg report suggested that China is open to new trade talks with the U.S., fueling optimism in the soy complex. A weaker dollar added support, though strong South American crop expectations capped gains. - 🇺🇦 Ukraine Rapeseed Exports Under Pressure
The Ukrainian export forecast for 2025/26 has been revised down to 2.7–2.8 million tonnes, a 13% decline from the current season. Lower planted area, poor crop development, and frost damage in early April are all contributing factors. APK-Inform estimates rapeseed production at 3.35–3.4 million tonnes (-8%). - 🇪🇺 EU Import Trends
EU soybean imports reached 10.95 million tonnes (vs. 10.1 million tonnes YoY).
Rapeseed imports hit 5.34 million tonnes (vs. 4.59 million tonnes YoY), while soybean meal imports surged to 14.77 million tonnes (vs. 11.72 million tonnes).
Palm oil imports declined to 2.22 million tonnes (vs. 2.80 million tonnes). - 📈 Fund Activity
Non-commercial traders at Euronext trimmed their net-long positions in rapeseed from 28,223 to 25,940 contracts. Commercial traders reduced their net-short positions from 31,940 to 29,498 contracts, suggesting a more neutral outlook.
📦 USDA Weekly Export Sales (Expected – April 10 week)
| Product | 2024/25 Forecast | 2025/26 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 100k–800k t | 0–150k t |
| Soybean meal | 145k–450k t | – |
| Soybean oil | 0–50k t | – |
🔮 Price Outlook (Next 3 Days)
| Product | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed | ↔️ Neutral | €535 – €550/t |
| Soybeans (Jul) | ↗️ Bullish | 1,045 – 1,065 ct/bu |
| Canola (Jul) | ↗️ Bullish | 675 – 690 CAD/t |
