Rapeseed Market Holds Firm as MATIF Curve Softens into 2027–28

Nearby rapeseed markets are stable to slightly firm, with Euronext values supported around EUR 520–530/t while the forward curve into 2027–28 gradually eases below EUR 500/t, signaling expectations of more comfortable medium‑term supply. Ukrainian FCA/CPT prices are edging higher from recent lows, but overall gains remain moderate. Rapeseed trading stays range‑bound, caught between solid old‑crop demand and expectations of improving new‑crop availability. Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed for August and November 2026 trades in a relatively tight band around the mid‑EUR 500s per tonne, while later contracts for 2027–28 drop back toward the mid‑EUR 490s, hinting at a softer longer‑term balance. Physical offers from Ukraine and France in late June and early July suggest a gently firmer tone ex‑Black Sea, contrasted with steady FOB French prices. Weather and harvest progress over the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the market breaks out of its current sideways pattern.

Prices

Euronext rapeseed futures as of 10 July 2026 show a flat nearby structure but a clearly softer back end of the curve. August 2026 trades around EUR 516.50/t, with November 2026 and February 2027 slightly higher at roughly EUR 528–529/t. Beyond May 2027, prices step down toward EUR 496/t for August, November 2027 and the 2028 positions, indicating medium‑term bearish expectations.

In the physical market, Ukrainian rapeseed (grade 1, CPT Odesa) has fluctuated narrowly between about EUR 474–0.488/kg (roughly EUR 474–488/t) since mid‑June, with a mild firming to around EUR 0.484/kg by 10 July. Ukrainian FCA values for 42% oilseed in Odesa and Kyiv recovered from EUR 0.51/kg (EUR 510/t) in early July to EUR 0.52/kg (EUR 520/t) on 10 July. French rapeseed FOB Paris remains stable near EUR 0.68/kg (around EUR 680/t), easing only marginally from EUR 0.70/kg in late June.

Supply & Demand

The flat nearby MATIF structure versus the discounted 2027–28 months points to tight but manageable spot availability and market confidence in future supply. Stable to marginally firmer Ukrainian FCA/CPT values suggest steady export interest out of the Black Sea, with logistics and freight likely playing a role in the modest basis improvement.

French FOB stability near EUR 680/t signals solid crusher demand in Western Europe but also competitive pressure from other oilseeds and vegetable oils. The combination of firm nearby demand and a softer forward curve indicates that buyers expect a reasonably good new‑crop rapeseed harvest in Europe and the Black Sea region, limiting the upside unless weather or yield results disappoint.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is balancing firm crush margins and biodiesel demand against the prospect of increased seed availability from upcoming harvests. The contango between August and November 2026 on MATIF is mild, showing that the market does not yet price a pronounced surplus but expects some easing after harvest.

Weather over the next weeks in key producing regions (EU and Ukraine) will remain a key watchpoint. With harvest either underway or imminent, prolonged dryness or excessive rainfall could still affect final yields and quality, which in turn would challenge the currently soft forward pricing below EUR 500/t and potentially offer support to nearby contracts.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Producers in Ukraine and the EU may consider incremental hedging on November 2026 MATIF near EUR 525–530/t, as the forward curve already discounts softer 2027–28 values.
• Crushers and consumers can use any weather‑driven dips toward EUR 500/t on nearby MATIF as an opportunity to secure coverage, given still‑firm physical indications from Ukraine and France.
• Merchants should closely monitor basis levels in Odesa and Paris; the recent firming of Ukrainian FCA/CPT suggests room for further basis tightening if export demand stays robust.

3‑Day Directional Outlook

• MATIF Aug/Nov 2026: Slightly firmer to sideways in EUR, with support around EUR 510–515/t and resistance near EUR 530/t.
• Ukrainian FCA/CPT (Odesa/Kyiv): Mildly supportive bias after recent uptick; EUR 510–520/t likely to hold near term.
• French FOB Paris: Sideways around EUR 670–690/t, tracking MATIF and broader vegoil complex.