Rapeseed Market: Record Meal Demand Supports Seeds Despite Mixed Prices

Global rapeseed meal consumption is set to reach a record high in 2025/26, underpinning generally supportive fundamentals for rapeseed seeds even as spot prices in some origins edge slightly lower. Strong EU feed demand and renewed Chinese buying interest are the key pillars of this meal-led bull story. From October 2025 to March 2026, rapeseed meal use has already expanded markedly, and further growth is expected into September. Crushers are running actively to capture favourable margins and service robust livestock-sector demand, ensuring ample meal supply but also maintaining steady seed off-take. This creates a constructive backdrop for seed values, though regional supply, freight and policy developments – particularly in China–Canada trade – are shaping short-term price direction.

Prices

Physical rapeseed offers indicate a mixed but broadly stable price environment in early June 2026. Ukrainian rapeseed (42% min oil, FCA Odesa and Kyiv) is currently indicated around EUR 0.58/kg, down from EUR 0.60/kg in late May, reflecting modest near-term pressure and competitive Black Sea supply. French-origin rapeseed FOB Paris is holding near EUR 0.64/kg, broadly unchanged over the past week after gaining from around EUR 0.60/kg in early May.

Converted to a per-tonne basis, current indications cluster roughly between EUR 580/t (Ukraine FCA) and EUR 640/t (France FOB), in line with recent Euronext rapeseed futures levels in EUR terms. This suggests that, despite slight softening in some Black Sea cash positions, the broader European rapeseed complex remains underpinned by solid downstream demand for oil and, crucially, meal.

Supply & Demand

Global rapeseed meal demand is the central driver of the current market. During October 2025–March 2026, worldwide rapeseed meal consumption rose by about 0.9 million tonnes year-on-year, propelled by stronger oilseed processing and higher use in livestock rations. The 2025/26 season is now forecast to reach an all-time high of roughly 47.2 million tonnes of meal consumption, an annual increase of around 2 million tonnes.

The European Union remains the engine of this expansion. Since the start of 2025/26, EU rapeseed meal usage has increased by around 0.8 million tonnes, supported by active crushing and firm demand from the livestock sector. Looking ahead to April–September, global meal demand could grow by a further 1.0–1.1 million tonnes, with nearly half of the additional volume – about 0.5 million tonnes – expected to come from the EU alone.

China is re-emerging as an important rapeseed meal buyer after restrictions on Canadian product were eased, improving trade sentiment and broadening export opportunities. Recent Chinese policy moves to cut anti-dumping tariffs on Canadian canola seed and suspend punitive duties on canola meal through the end of 2026 are reinforcing this trend and helping normalise flows. This combination of strong EU usage and renewed Chinese demand is anchoring global meal and, by extension, seed demand.

Fundamentals & Margins

Record meal consumption is closely linked to high oilseed crushing volumes. Active rapeseed processing in Europe and other key regions is increasing meal availability while also generating a steady stream of rapeseed oil for food and biodiesel markets. As long as crushing margins remain positive – supported by firm protein meal prices and resilient vegetable oil demand – crushers have an incentive to maintain high run rates, sustaining seed demand.

At the same time, global rapeseed balances are not excessively tight, and steady supply from the Black Sea, EU and Canada is preventing an aggressive price spike in seeds. However, policy risk around China’s import regime for Canadian canola and rapeseed-related products, as well as weather conditions in major producing regions, remains a key watch point. Recent weather outlooks for the EU rapeseed belt (France, Germany, Poland) indicate seasonally mild temperatures and generally adequate precipitation, with some local dryness but no widespread stress signal for now.

Short-Term Outlook

Further growth in rapeseed meal use between April and September – up to 1.1 million tonnes globally – should keep the meal market well supported and indirectly underpin seed prices. The EU is expected to account for nearly half of this incremental demand, while China’s improved access to Canadian supply adds another layer of support to international trade flows.

For seeds, this translates into a broadly sideways-to-firm outlook in Europe, with some downside risk in origins where export competition is strong and logistics are flexible (e.g., Black Sea). Price direction in the coming weeks will hinge on crushing margins, developments in Chinese import policy implementation, and early signals from 2026/27 crop prospects in Europe, Canada and the Black Sea.

Trading Outlook

• For crushers and feed manufacturers: Consider locking in a portion of rapeseed and meal coverage for the remainder of 2025/26, as record meal demand and firm EU usage point to continued support, even if seeds show short-term volatility.
• For producers: In regions with basis strength (e.g., EU, France), staged sales into current firmness may be prudent, while maintaining some exposure in case meal-led demand tightens seed balances into late season.
• For importers in Asia and MENA: Use current relative stability in prices – especially Ukrainian FCA offers near EUR 580/t – to secure nearby needs, but keep flexibility for potential basis shifts driven by Chinese buying and freight changes.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)