Rapeseed Rally Continues – Old Crop in High Demand Across Europe

📈 Rapeseed Rally Continues – Old Crop in High Demand Across Europe

Rapeseed prices continue to rise, supported by tight physical availability and strong demand from crushers. The uptrend at Euronext mirrors strength in canola and soybean oil, despite pressure from falling palm oil.

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📊 Market Overview – April 15, 2025

📌 Euronext Rapeseed (MATIF)

Contract	Closing Price (€/t)	Change
May 2025	544.75	+11.50
August 2025	478.50	+9.50
November 2025	482.00	–

📌 ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract	Closing Price	Change
May 2025	668.90	+7.30
July 2025	676.50	+7.80
November 2025	649.00	+0.70

📌 CBOT Soybeans

Contract	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Change
July 2025	1,036.75	+13.25

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• 📈 European Rapeseed Rally Continues
  Rapeseed prices continued to rise at Euronext, with old-crop demand remaining strong. Although premiums on the physical market eased somewhat, spot prices reached over €560/t in some cases. Crushers are still looking for the last remaining volumes of old crops.
• 🇨🇦 Tight Canola Stocks in Canada
  ICE canola prices rose again on Tuesday. Canadian crushers and exporters face tight inventories. Support also came from rising soybean oil prices and strong short covering.
• 🇺🇸 Soybean Market Mixed
  Soybean futures at CBOT traded mixed. Nearby contracts were under pressure from weak crush data and export concerns, while new-crop contracts gained slightly.
• 📉 Weak U.S. Soy Crush in March (NOPA)
  According to Tuesday’s NOPA report, U.S. soybean crush totalled 194.55 million bushels in March, below analyst expectations (197.6 million bu) and down 0.94% from a year ago.
  ▪️ Daily crush rate: 6.276 million bu/day – lowest since September
  ▪️ Soybean oil stocks fell slightly to 1.498 billion lbs – a 19% YoY drop
• 🌴 Palm Oil Under Pressure
  Malaysian palm oil futures fell for the second session in a row, closing at a 6-month low (June contract: 4,107 MYR/t / $931). Improved production expectations and weaker Chinese and U.S. veg oil prices added pressure. Early trading on Wednesday was again lower.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Commodity	Price Outlook	Trend
Rapeseed (May 25)	€535 – €555/t	↗️ Bullish
Soybeans (Jul 25)	1,030 – 1,045 ct/bu	↔️ Sideways
Canola (Jul 25)	670 – 685 CAD/t	↗️ Firm

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📌 Summary

• Rapeseed demand in Europe remains high, lifting old-crop futures to new seasonal highs.
• Soybean oil continues to support the broader oilseed complex.
• Despite weakness in soybean crush and export concerns, U.S. soybeans remain supported by potential biodiesel mandate increases.
• Palm oil is under pressure from production growth and external weakness.