Rapeseed Rebounds as Soy Complex Finds Support Amid Easing Trade Tensions

🌿 Rapeseed Rebounds as Soy Complex Finds Support Amid Easing Trade Tensions

Markets reacted positively to fresh hopes for U.S.–China trade talks and strong gains in Canadian canola. However, soybean oil weakness and rising palm oil stocks kept gains in check.

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📊 Market Overview – May 2, 2025

📍 Euronext Rapeseed Futures (MATIF)

Contract	Price (€/t)	Change	Weekly Change
Aug 25	471.75	+9.75	+1.25 (0.3%)
Nov 25	476.25	0.00	–

📍 ICE Canola Futures (CAD/t)

Contract	Price	Change	Comment
Jul 25	708.00	+11.40	Highest since May 2024
Nov 25	657.40	+4.90	New crop prices remain under pressure

📍 CBOT Soybeans – July 25

Price (ct/bu)	EUR/t (approx)	Daily Change	Weekly Change
1,058.00	~344 EUR/t	+7.75	-1.25 ct (-0.1%)

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

🇨🇳 China–U.S. Trade Talks Revived

• Reports from Beijing suggest China may consider restarting trade talks with the U.S.
• Soybeans gained on optimism, although no official commitment was made.
• China has exempted some U.S. goods from its 125% retaliatory tariffs, but soybeans remain excluded.

🇨🇦 Canola Surge Continues

• ICE July canola hit an 11-month high at 708 CAD/t.
• Strong front-month prices reflect a tight old-crop supply.
• New crop prices are lower, reflecting concerns about demand amid global trade uncertainty.

🇧🇷 Brazilian Soy Output Upgraded

• Stonex raised its Brazil soybean crop estimate to 168.4 Mio t (+0.9 Mio t).
• Yields in Mato Grosso were higher than expected.

🇲🇾 Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks Rising

• Reuters poll sees palm oil inventories in April rising 14.8% m/m to 1.79 Mio t – highest since Dec 2024.
• MPOB data is due May 13.
• Palm oil futures fell Friday (-4.4% for the week), and losses continued Monday morning.

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🔎 USDA Data Highlights

• Soybean Export Inspections (week ending Apr 24):
  • 439,341 t shipped
  • Down 21% vs. last week but up 59% vs. the same week in 2024
  • Top buyers: 🇨🇳 China (205,463 t), 🇲🇽 Mexico (61,071 t), 🇩🇪 Germany (57,069 t)
  • Season total: 43.12 Mio t (+11% y/y)
• U.S. Soybean Planting Progress:
  • 18% completed (vs. 17% expected, 12% 5-year avg)
• CFTC Commitment of Traders (April 29):
  • Net long soybean position: +38,202 contracts (+7,135 w/w)

 

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 3–6)

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⛅ 14-Day Weather Outlook (Major Growing Regions)

🇺🇸 Midwest U.S. (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana)

• Short term (next 7 days):

  • Wet weather in the southern Midwest may delay soy planting

  • Northern Midwest: generally dry with mild temps

• Following 7 days (May 10–17):

  • Drier, warmer pattern emerging – positive for fieldwork

🇧🇷 Brazil (Mato Grosso, Parana)

• Mostly dry – aiding harvest completion

• Soil moisture remains sufficient in key growing zones

🇦🇷 Argentina (Buenos Aires, Cordoba)

• Dry weather is favourable for harvest

• Watch for early frost risks in southern areas