📈 Rapeseed Rebounds While Soy Complex Softens – Market Looks Ahead to Key Trade Signals
📍 The oilseed market showed mixed signals, with rapeseed prices climbing sharply for a second day in a row, while soybeans came under mild pressure. Traders are reacting to shifting trade flows, evolving South American harvest data, and growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. planting decisions.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,008.25 | €340/t | -4.50 | -0.44% |
| July 2025 | 1,022.25 | €345/t | -4.25 | -0.41% |
| November 2025 | 1,035.75 | €350/t | -4.00 | -0.39% |
📈 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📈 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 486.25 | +15.00 | +3.18% |
| August 2025 | 471.50 | +14.50 | +3.17% |
| November 2025 | 474.50 | +14.50 | +3.15% |
📉 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 572.70 | €367/t | -11.50 | -2.01% |
| July 2025 | 584.20 | €374/t | -10.30 | -1.76% |
| November 2025 | 588.80 | €378/t | -9.70 | -1.65% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Developments
- Rapeseed Surges on Canola Strength and Weaker Euro
→ Canola’s earlier gains and a weaker euro reduced import pressure on European rapeseed.
→ Canadian farmers are reportedly holding back remaining stocks, tightening near-term availability. - China’s New Tariffs on Canadian Oilseed Products Take Effect
→ 100% duty on canola oil and 25% on canola meal now in place.
→ Chinese investigation on seed imports remains open – rapeseed seed trade continues unchanged for now. - U.S. Farmers Reevaluate Planting Intentions
→ Current price ratio favours corn over soybeans.
→ Analysts believe soybeans may be more exposed to export risk due to geopolitical tensions. - Brazilian Harvest Ahead of Schedule, but Abiove Cuts Output Estimate
→ Mato Grosso is 97% harvested, exceeding 5-year average.
→ Abiove revised production to 170.9 MMT, approaching USDA’s 169 MMT figure. - U.S. Soybean Crush and Exports Show Weakness
→ February NOPA crush data fell well below expectations.
→ Export expectations for this week: soybeans 0.4–0.9 MMT, meal 140k–470k t, oil 15k–60k t.
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
🇦🇷 Argentina: Conditions Favor Yield Stability
📍 Current Situation:
→ Moisture levels are improving and supporting crop development.
📆 14-Day Forecast:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Stable, no major heat stress expected.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued showers are helping to sustain soil conditions.
- 🚨 Impact: Supports crop quality and protects yield potential.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Outlook: Bullish momentum may continue if Canola holds and the euro stays weak.
- Resistance Level: €495/t
- Support Level: €470/t
- 📊 Range Expectation: €475 – €490/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Outlook: Weak crush demand and Brazil’s export pace weigh on the complex.
- Resistance Level: 1,020 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Range Expectation: 1,005 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data – USDA Ending Stocks
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Takeaways & Recommendations
📈 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed is rebounding on technical and fundamental support.
- The soybean outlook remains cautious due to weak processing demand and strong South American supply.
- U.S. planting shifts could become a market mover in the coming weeks.
🔮 The market remains alert – next signals expected from USDA export data and trade policy decisions.