📈 Rapeseed Recovers Losses – Stable Soybean Prices Amid Brazilian Export Decline
📍 Rapeseed at Euronext regained ground on Tuesday, with the May contract rising €6.75 to €530.25/t after Monday’s decline. Soybeans at CBoT remained relatively stable, with the May contract closing at 1,048.75 ct/bu, a modest gain of 1.25 ct. Canola in Winnipeg saw slight losses, with the May contract slipping by 2.30 CAD to 657.00 CAD/t.
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,048.75 | +1.25 | +0.12% |
| July 2025 | 1,061.25 | +1.50 | +0.14% |
| November 2025 | 1,075.50 | +1.25 | +0.12% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 530.25 | +6.75 | +1.29% |
| August 2025 | 497.50 | +2.50 | +0.51% |
| November 2025 | 499.50 | +2.00 | +0.40% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 646.30 | -1.60 | -0.25% |
| May 2025 | 657.00 | -2.30 | -0.35% |
| July 2025 | 663.60 | -1.50 | -0.23% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Stable U.S. Soybean Prices Amid Strong Exports 🚢
→ U.S. weekly soybean export inspections reached 859,000 tons, up from 727,000 tons last week.
→ However, they are still below last year’s level of 1.06 million tons.
→ Cumulative U.S. soybean exports now exceed 35 million tons, compared to 31 million tons last year. - Brazilian Soybean Exports Decline Sharply 📉
→ Daily soybean exports fell by nearly 30% compared to February 2024.
→ Brazil shipped 3.7 million tons so far in February, compared to 6.6 million tons last year.
→ This is partly due to early-season harvest delays, but the harvest is now catching up.
→ CONAB estimates 36% of the soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 38% last year. - Weather Concerns Continue for South America ⛅
→ Brazil: Heavy rains in central and northern regions may slow down soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting.
→ Argentina: Widespread rainfall is expected in central & southern regions, benefiting late-stage crops.
→ Northern Argentina remains hotter and drier than normal, with limited precipitation. - Argentina Eases Waterway Regulations to Boost Grain Exports 🚢
→ Argentina relaxed transport regulations for the Paraná-Paraguay waterway, a key grain corridor.
→ Freight capacity could increase by 7%, reducing costs for exporters.
→ 80% of Argentina’s agricultural exports are shipped via this route.
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⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Rainfall for Crops
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Drought stress easing in key growing regions.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Normal, 25–32°C.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Frequent showers are expected in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Could boost late-season crop conditions, helping to prevent further losses.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Supported by stable vegetable oil demand but facing pressure from improving supply in Canada.
- Resistance Level: €535/t
- Support Level: €520/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €525 – €532/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Steady U.S. exports support prices, but Brazil’s accelerating harvest could weigh on the market.
- Resistance Level: 1,060 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,040 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,045 – 1,055 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed prices bounced back but remain range-bound amid vegetable oil price fluctuations.
- Soybeans hold steady as U.S. exports support prices, but Brazil’s accelerating harvest poses a risk.
- Canola in Canada faces downward pressure due to technical selling and speculative liquidation.
🔮 Market volatility remains high – next focus on South American harvest progress and U.S. planting intentions.