Rapeseed Recovers Losses – Stable Soybean Prices Amid Brazilian Export Decline

Rapeseed Recovers Losses – Stable Soybean Prices Amid Brazilian Export Decline

Rapeseed at Euronext regained ground on Tuesday, with the May contract rising €6.75 to €530.25/t after Monday’s decline. Soybeans at CBoT remained relatively stable, with the May contract closing at 1,048.75 ct/bu, a modest gain of 1.25 ct. Canola in Winnipeg saw slight losses, with the May contract slipping by 2.30 CAD to 657.00 CAD/t.

---

1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends

CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products

Contract	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Change	%
May 2025	1,048.75	+1.25	+0.12%
July 2025	1,061.25	+1.50	+0.14%
November 2025	1,075.50	+1.25	+0.12%

Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures

Contract	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Change	%
May 2025	530.25	+6.75	+1.29%
August 2025	497.50	+2.50	+0.51%
November 2025	499.50	+2.00	+0.40%

ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures

Contract	Closing Price (CAD/t)	Change	%
March 2025	646.30	-1.60	-0.25%
May 2025	657.00	-2.30	-0.35%
July 2025	663.60	-1.50	-0.23%

---

2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

Key Market Developments

• Stable U.S. Soybean Prices Amid Strong Exports
  → U.S. weekly soybean export inspections reached 859,000 tons, up from 727,000 tons last week.
  → However, they are still below last year’s level of 1.06 million tons.
  → Cumulative U.S. soybean exports now exceed 35 million tons, compared to 31 million tons last year.
• Brazilian Soybean Exports Decline Sharply
  → Daily soybean exports fell by nearly 30% compared to February 2024.
  → Brazil shipped 3.7 million tons so far in February, compared to 6.6 million tons last year.
  → This is partly due to early-season harvest delays, but the harvest is now catching up.
  → CONAB estimates 36% of the soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 38% last year.
• Weather Concerns Continue for South America
  → Brazil: Heavy rains in central and northern regions may slow down soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting.
  → Argentina: Widespread rainfall is expected in central & southern regions, benefiting late-stage crops.
  → Northern Argentina remains hotter and drier than normal, with limited precipitation.
• Argentina Eases Waterway Regulations to Boost Grain Exports
  → Argentina relaxed transport regulations for the Paraná-Paraguay waterway, a key grain corridor.
  → Freight capacity could increase by 7%, reducing costs for exporters.
  → 80% of Argentina’s agricultural exports are shipped via this route.

---

3. 14-Day Weather Forecast

Argentina: Favorable Rainfall for Crops

Current Conditions:
→ Drought stress easing in key growing regions.

14-Day Outlook:

• Temperatures: Normal, 25–32°C.
• Rainfall: Frequent showers are expected in Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
• Impact: Could boost late-season crop conditions, helping to prevent further losses.

---

4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days

Rapeseed (Euronext)

• Trend: Supported by stable vegetable oil demand but facing pressure from improving supply in Canada.
• Resistance Level: €535/t
• Support Level: €520/t
• Expected Range: €525 – €532/t

Soybeans (CBoT)

• Trend: Steady U.S. exports support prices, but Brazil’s accelerating harvest could weigh on the market.
• Resistance Level: 1,060 ct/bu
• Support Level: 1,040 ct/bu
• Expected Range: 1,045 – 1,055 ct/bu

---

5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

Season	Global Ending Stocks (MMT)	Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 MMT
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 MMT
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 MMT

---

6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations

Market Insights:

• Rapeseed prices bounced back but remain range-bound amid vegetable oil price fluctuations.
• Soybeans hold steady as U.S. exports support prices, but Brazil’s accelerating harvest poses a risk.
• Canola in Canada faces downward pressure due to technical selling and speculative liquidation.

Market volatility remains high – next focus on South American harvest progress and U.S. planting intentions.