📉 Rapeseed Stagnates Amid Trade Uncertainty – Soy Complex Mixed as Tariff Fears Simmer
📍 Rapeseed futures in Paris held steady on Monday, while soybean markets remained volatile amid intensifying U.S.–China trade tensions. Despite Chinese retaliation with a 34% import tariff, traders cautiously hope for a diplomatic resolution. Meanwhile, strong canola gains in Winnipeg hint at renewed confidence in Canadian exports to the U.S.
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📊 1. Market Overview – Futures & Developments
🌍 CBOT – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (ct/bu) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📈 Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 983.00 | €328 | +5.00 |
| Jul 2025 | 994.75 | €332 | +3.75 |
| Nov 2025 | 1,007.00 | €336 | +1.25 |
📉 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures (07.04.2025)
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (EUR/t) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 516.25 | -0.75 |
| Aug 2025 | 476.00 | -0.25 |
| Nov 2025 | 478.00 | -0.25 |
📈 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (CAD/t) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📈 Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 636.60 | €408 | +14.60 |
| Jul 2025 | 643.00 | €412 | +16.30 |
| Nov 2025 | 628.40 | €402 | +13.20 |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Influences
🇨🇳 Tariff Tensions Fuel Market Jitters
- China’s 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans has rattled markets.
- President Trump responded with threats of another 50% tariff, heightening uncertainty.
- Around 600,000 t of U.S. soybeans destined for China remain unsent.
- USDA data shows 2 MMT sold to “unknown” destinations, which may include China.
🇺🇸 Soybean Export Shipments Still Solid
- USDA export inspections for the week ending April 3 totaled 804,270 t, down just 1% w/w but up 63% y/y.
- This marks the third-highest total for this calendar week since 2002.
- China was the top destination with 341,278 t, followed by Egypt (140,658 t).
🇪🇺 EU Rapeseed: Quiet Consolidation
- After recent strength, rapeseed settled nearly flat as markets weighed possible EU tariffs on U.S. soybeans.
- A weaker euro helped cushion losses while falling crude oil prices capped gains.
- New crop months remained steady amid soft demand and macro pressures.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Harvest Accelerates
- According to AgRural, Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest reached 87% by April 3.
- That’s 11.5% ahead of last year’s pace.
- Focus now shifts to Rio Grande do Sul, where drought has lowered yields.
🌴 Palm Oil Under Pressure
- Malaysian palm oil fell to a 10-week low, weighed by weak crude oil and soy oil markets.
- June contract closed at 4,329 MYR/t (€976/t), down 2% for the week.
- Further declines followed as Brent and WTI crude dropped 3% on Monday, their lowest levels since April 2021.
🔮 3. Price Outlook – Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Tendency: Sideways to slightly weaker
- Support: €505/t
- Resistance: €530/t
- Outlook: €510 – €525/t
📉 Soybeans (CBOT)
- Tendency: Bearish bias amid trade fears
- Support: 965 ct/bu
- Resistance: 990 ct/bu
- Outlook: 965 – 980 ct/bu
📉 4. USDA Global Soybean Stocks (Long-Term)
| Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 |
🔍 5. Summary & Outlook
📉 Key Takeaways:
- Rapeseed held steady as macro pressure limited further gains.
- Soybeans are vulnerable as trade tensions escalate sharply.
- Canola surged on optimism around U.S.–Canada trade clarity and biofuel demand.
🔮 Market attention will remain on tariffs, oil price action, and Thursday’s USDA export sales. Any diplomatic signals or further escalation will be closely watched.
