Rapeseed steadies above €510 on MATIF while Black Sea basis softens

Rapeseed futures on Euronext and ICE canola are holding firm, but physical Black Sea and French FOB basis shows a softer, more competitive tone. Nearby MATIF remains above €510/t, while Ukrainian CPT and FCA values have eased versus early June, pointing to comfortable spot supply and strong competition among origins. European rapeseed is trading in a relatively tight range, with deferred MATIF contracts slightly backwardated versus nearby, signalling adequate forward supply expectations. At the same time, Ukrainian offers into Odesa and Kyiv have slipped since late May, reflecting active farmer selling ahead of the new crop and cost pressure from logistics and finance. Global balance sheets still project a larger 2026/27 crop, but localized weather risks and uncertain crush margins keep directional conviction limited in the very short term.

Prices

Front Euronext rapeseed (Aug 2026) is quoted around €511.75/t, with Nov 2026 near €517.50/t. Further out, Feb–May 2027 trade slightly lower at €516.75–514.25/t, and the strip from Aug 2027 onwards trends towards the high €480s–€490s/t, indicating a mild forward discount and expectations of decent future availability.

ICE canola futures have firmed, with Jul 2026 around CAD 735.30/t and Nov 2026 at CAD 744.10/t, both up about 1–1.5% on the day, confirming a generally supported oilseed complex. Ukrainian physical prices show more softness: CPT Odesa rapeseed grade 1 has moved from roughly €0.49/kg (≈€490/t) on 11 June to about €0.476/kg (≈€476/t) on 22 June. FCA Kyiv/Odesa 42% oil rapeseed declined from €0.60/kg (≈€600/t) in late May to about €0.53/kg (≈€530/t) by 19 June. FOB Paris French rapeseed climbed from roughly €0.64–0.65/kg (≈€640–650/t) at the end of May to €0.70/kg (≈€700/t) by 19 June, highlighting a stronger EU physical basis versus Black Sea.

Supply & Demand

Global forecasts for 2026/27 still point to a somewhat larger rapeseed crop versus 2025/26, led by steady production in Canada (around 22 Mmt) and modest gains in the EU, China and India, partly offset by a smaller Australian harvest. Ukraine is expected to increase rapeseed output to roughly 4.2 Mmt (+0.7 Mmt y/y), enabling export growth of about 0.3 Mmt to 2.6 Mmt if logistics remain functional.

In the EU, harvested area for 2026/27 is marginally higher, but slightly weaker yields after a mixed winter may cap production gains. Ukrainian oilseed balances show more rapeseed available for export and crush, yet overall grain and oilseed exports are still running below last season, indicating infrastructure and financing constraints. Competition from sunflower remains strong in Ukraine, but some processors are holding back ahead of the rapeseed crush season, which could soon absorb part of the available supply.

Fundamentals & Weather

Despite projections of a larger 2026/27 crop, global ending stocks are not expected to rise dramatically, as higher exports from Canada, Ukraine and Russia largely match incremental production. This keeps rapeseed moderately tight in relative terms, supporting the flat-to-firm futures structure around €510–520/t on MATIF.

Weather across key producing regions remains seasonally mixed. In Europe, late-spring showers in parts of France and Germany have stabilized yield expectations, while localized dryness episodes in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea have so far not triggered a major risk premium. In Ukraine, field reports suggest a generally good rapeseed crop, though late sowing and logistics keep basis volatile. Crude oil and vegetable oil markets are relatively range-bound, offering limited additional upside momentum to rapeseed in the very near term.

4–6 week outlook & trading ideas

• Producers in the EU: With MATIF Aug–Nov 2026 holding above €510/t and a mild backwardation into 2027, consider layering in additional hedge sales on rallies towards €520–530/t, while keeping some volume open in case of late weather surprises.
• Ukrainian sellers: Spot CPT/FCA values have eased; basis could firm again if export logistics tighten during the peak shipping window. Gradual sales into current levels, combined with optionality for Q3–Q4, balance price and execution risk.
• Crushers: The widening spread between weaker Black Sea seed and firmer EU FOB/Futures improves crush margins. Locking in seed purchases in Ukraine against MATIF or product sales may be attractive, especially if energy markets remain stable.
• Importers in the EU & MENA: Use any short-term dips driven by harvest pressure to extend coverage into Q4 2026, but avoid over-covering 2027 until the Australian crop and Northern Hemisphere weather are clearer.

3‑day price indication

• MATIF Rapeseed (Aug & Nov 2026): Likely to trade sideways to slightly firm around €510–520/t, with low volatility absent new macro or weather shocks.
• UA CPT/FCA (Odesa, Kyiv): Bias mildly downward to flat in the €470–480/t (CPT) and €520–540/t (FCA) ranges as farmer selling continues ahead of harvest.
• FR FOB Paris: Supported around €690–710/t, tracking both MATIF and vegetable oil values, with limited downside while global rapeseed balance sheets remain snug.