Rapeseed under Weather Stress but Harvest Holds: Ukraine Market Update
Ukraine rapeseed 2026: drought and frost hit fields, but harvest seen near last year. See price trends, weather risks and short-term trading outlook.
Prices
Domestic rapeseed prices in Ukraine are relatively stable, with a slight firming in CPT Odesa values ahead of new-crop arrivals, while MATIF futures remain well supported.
- Ukraine, CPT Odesa (grade 1, < 35 mcm): around EUR 0.487/kg (EUR 487/t) on 26 June, marginally below the previous day, but up from about EUR 475/t a week earlier.
- Ukraine, FCA Kyiv/Odesa (42% oil, 98% purity): steady near EUR 0.53/kg (EUR 530/t) since mid-June, after a correction from EUR 580/t earlier in the month.
- France, FOB Paris: roughly EUR 0.70/kg (EUR 700/t) on 26 June, matching the high end of the June range and tracking firm Euronext rapeseed futures near EUR 515–520/t.
Supply & Demand
Rapeseed is described by Ukrainian farmers as the most difficult crop this season. Southern regions suffered from autumn drought and virtually dry sowing, followed by winter and May frosts that damaged stands and reduced yield potential.
Despite these stresses, fields that survived the winter in the south are now almost ready for threshing, with a moderate harvest expected there. At the national level, current expectations point to a 2026 rapeseed harvest close to last year’s volume, suggesting limited tightening in domestic supply and keeping export flows broadly in line with the previous season.
Fundamentals & Weather
Weather remains a key short-term risk but is no longer the dominant driver as the crop approaches harvest. In southern Ukraine, including the Odesa region, recent and forecast conditions show mostly warm, seasonally dry to moderately dry weather, which should allow field access and early combining without major delays.
On the demand side, firm Euronext rapeseed futures above EUR 500/t and comparatively high FOB French prices signal continued tightness in European oilseed balances and support Ukrainian export demand. At the same time, the expectation of a Ukrainian harvest similar to last year, rather than sharply lower, tempers any strong bullish reaction to earlier weather damage.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading View
- Price bias (Ukraine, farmgate/CPT): mildly firmer to sideways over the next days as early southern harvest progress meets solid export interest and firm EU benchmarks.
- Farmers: Consider forward selling a portion of expected production from surviving fields, especially in the south where harvest is imminent and yields look moderate, to lock in current premiums over earlier-June levels.
- Traders/exporters: Maintain coverage for nearby shipments; basis in Ukrainian ports is likely to stay supported while domestic supply is only gradually replenished by new-crop rapeseed.
- Crushers: Monitor harvest pace; if yields confirm a crop close to last year, some procurement opportunities may emerge later, but short-term, competition from export channels will keep input costs elevated.
3‑Day Price Indication (EUR)
- Ukraine, CPT Odesa (rapeseed, grade 1): Expected to trade in a roughly EUR 480–495/t band over the next three days, with a slight upward bias if harvest results confirm only moderate yields.
- Ukraine, FCA Kyiv/Odesa (42% oil): Likely to remain around EUR 520–540/t, stabilizing after earlier mid-June corrections.
- France, FOB Paris: Prices expected to hold firm near EUR 690–710/t, tracking Euronext futures above EUR 500/t and reflecting tight EU oilseed fundamentals.