Raw Sugar Futures Steady – October Holds Above 16.80 c/lb

Raw Sugar Steadies – ICE October Holds Firm Near 16.80 c/lb

On 18 July 2025, ICE Sugar No.11 futures ended the week with a quiet but positive session. The October 2025 contract closed at 16.82 US¢/lb, up 0.48%, stabilising after recent fluctuations. The broader curve remained mostly flat to mildly firm, as traders await clearer signals from Brazil and India. The physical market remains well supplied, but structurally firm.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.11 – Futures Closing Summary (18.07.2025)

Contract	Close (US¢/lb)	Change (%)	High	Low	Volume
Oct 25	16.82	+0.48%	17.02	16.71	51,794
Mar 26	17.43	+0.23%	17.64	17.35	26,725
May 26	17.08	+0.12%	17.27	17.01	12,644
Jul 26	16.94	+0.06%	17.11	16.88	8,151
Oct 26	17.07	+0.06%	17.22	17.02	4,947
Mar 27	17.43	0.00%	17.56	17.40	1,909
May 27	16.99	0.00%	17.10	16.98	839
Jul 27	16.80	-0.06%	16.90	16.80	578
Oct 27	16.85	-0.12%	16.93	16.85	361
Mar 28	17.15	-0.17%	17.23	17.15	57
May 28	16.76	-0.18%	16.76	16.76	0

(Conversion: 1 US¢/lb = ~22.05 USD/ton | 16.82 ¢/lb ≈ 370.85 USD/t)

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🇧🇷 Physical Market Commentary – Stable Supply, Softening Demand

• 📦 The global physical sugar market remains well supplied, with no current logistics disruptions out of Brazil.
• 🇧🇷 Brazilian exports continue at a strong pace, although FOB offers for August/September are reported to be steady rather than firm.
• 🇮🇳 In India, monsoon coverage has reached most cane-growing regions. While no new export quotas have been confirmed, domestic prices have risen slightly, hinting at reduced export potential in Q4.
• 🇹🇭 Thailand remains quiet, with no changes in exportable volumes or government policies.

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🛍️ Retail Market Reference (Selected Global Benchmarks)

Country	Reference Market	Retail Price (€/kg)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
UK	Tesco	1.15 €
UAE	Carrefour	0.91 €
Brazil	Pão de Açúcar	0.78 €
USA	Walmart	1.02 € (converted)

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📊 Price Comparison Table (Converted Values)

Market	Price (USD/t)	Comment
ICE No.11 Oct 25	370.85	Firm but still below recent highs
ICE No.5 Aug 25	~494.10	White sugar futures remain structurally higher
Brazil FOB (VHP)	~395–405	August/Sept offers unchanged
EU Spot FCA (PL)	~545–560	Firm – driven by logistics & refinery pricing

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🌦️ Weather Outlook

• 🇧🇷 Brazil (Centre-South): Favourable dry harvesting weather continues. Moisture stress is building in isolated areas but remains non-critical.
• 🇮🇳 India: Monsoon has normalised, particularly in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Soil conditions are adequate for cane development.
• 🇹🇭 Thailand: Normal seasonal pattern, no disruptions or floods reported.
• 🇿🇦 South Africa: Cool, dry conditions persist – beneficial for ripening.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Futures stabilising – speculative flows remain active, but fundamentals limit upside
📦 Physical market well covered – buyers not chasing futures yet
⚠️ Watch policy and logistics, especially India’s Q4 export stance

📌 Recommendations:

• Buyers:
  → Use price dips below 16.70 c/lb to secure short-term needs
  → Monitor Brazilian FOB basis levels for Q3/Q4 coverage
• Sellers:
  → Hedge deferred positions above 17.30 c/lb
  → Avoid overcommitting at flat values without a premium incentive
• Traders:
  → Range-bound strategy around 16.60–17.25 c/lb remains valid
  → Watch for a technical breakout above 17.25 for trend continuation

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📍 Summary:

Raw sugar remains in a technically stable phase, with the market supported by structured fund positioning but constrained by ample global supply and modest demand signals. Attention now shifts to India’s domestic policy and Brazilian shipping pace, which will likely shape Q3 momentum.