Record Argentine Corn Crop Looms Over a Sideways Global Market

Argentina’s core corn belt is heading for a record 2025/26 harvest, adding comfortable supply to a global market where futures and physical prices remain broadly range-bound. Short-term price pressure is likely, but strong feed and industrial demand should limit the downside. Argentina’s core agricultural region is set to deliver about 20.35 million tonnes of corn in 2025/26, roughly 35% above the previous record and far above early-season expectations. This surge is driven by the largest planted area in 17 years and high yields, despite localized drought stress. At the same time, Euronext corn futures in Paris and Black Sea physical values are trading in a narrow band, signalling that the market is already pricing in ample supply. Weather for late-planted Argentine corn and North Hemisphere crops, plus demand from feed and biofuel sectors, will be the key swing factors into summer.

Prices

Paris (Euronext) corn futures for mid-2026 delivery are trading around €220–225/t, with recent quotes for June 2026 near €224–225/t, underscoring a broadly sideways pattern over recent weeks.

Physical offers show a similar picture of stability. In Odesa, Ukrainian corn is indicated around €0.18–0.19/kg FOB (≈€180–190/t) and about €0.26/kg FCA (≈€260/t) for yellow feed grade, while French FOB corn in Paris is steady near €0.26/kg (≈€260/t). Popcorn from Argentina and Brazil trades at a premium, at roughly €0.76–0.84/kg FOB/FCA, reflecting niche demand and higher processing value.

Supply & Demand

In Argentina’s core agricultural region, corn production in 2025/26 is now pegged at about 20.35 million tonnes, up sharply from an initial 15.5 million-tonne forecast at planting. The crop surpasses the previous 2019/20 record by roughly 35%, highlighting an impressive recovery after prior drought years. Average yields stand near 11 t/ha, supported by a record 2.3 million hectares planted— the largest area in 17 years.

Yield performance is highly heterogeneous. Southern Santa Fe and northwestern Buenos Aires are achieving 13.5–14 t/ha, well above the regional mean, while drought-hit zones report 7.8–9.1 t/ha. Early-planted corn harvesting is nearing completion, and prospects for late-planted fields remain favourable. Parallel to corn, Argentina’s soybean harvest is about 90% complete with broadly stable yields, reinforcing the country’s role as a key grain and oilseed supplier into 2025/26.

On the global level, recent USDA projections point to ample but slightly tightening coarse grain balances into 2026/27, with supply edging lower while use inches higher, implying modest stock erosion. In this context, Argentina’s record core-region output provides important exportable surplus that helps offset anticipated production declines in other exporting regions.

Fundamentals & Weather

The core drivers behind Argentina’s record output are expanded acreage and robust yields in key provinces. High-yielding pockets in southern Santa Fe and northwestern Buenos Aires are compensating for drought-affected areas, where yields are distinctly below average. This divergence underlines that weather stress did not disappear but was outpaced by agronomic improvements and area expansion.

Looking ahead, market attention will focus on the performance of late-planted corn and short-term weather in Argentina and the Northern Hemisphere. Early-June forecasts point to seasonally mild, mostly dry conditions in parts of Argentina’s corn belt, supportive of harvest progress, while Northern Hemisphere corn areas are entering their critical vegetative and pollination phases over the coming weeks. Any heat or moisture stress in major producers could quickly shift sentiment from comfortable to more defensive, but for now, fundamentals remain broadly benign.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Record Argentine core-region output and steady Black Sea and EU offers argue for mildly bearish to neutral price action. End-users can continue to buy hand-to-mouth, with limited risk of near-term supply tightness.
• Medium term (Q3 2026): Watch late-planted Argentine yields and Northern Hemisphere weather. Any crop scares in the U.S. or EU could tighten balances and lift futures from current €220–225/t levels, but starting stocks and strong South American supply temper upside potential.
• Hedging strategy: Feed users and starch processors may consider layering in partial coverage on price dips below ~€220/t on Euronext to secure margins, while producers with good yield visibility might hedge a portion of 2025/26 output if futures retest the upper end of the recent range.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• Euronext Paris corn futures: Expected to trade sideways in a roughly €218–226/t band, tracking benign supply news.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, FOB Odesa): Physical corn indications likely to remain stable around €180–195/t, reflecting competitive offers and adequate logistics.
• Argentina (FOB Up-River / Buenos Aires, popcorn and bulk): Bulk corn under pressure from record output, while popcorn retains a firm premium near €760–840/t, supported by specialized demand.