Rice Market 2026/27: Balanced Fundamentals, Softening FOB Prices

Global rice fundamentals for 2026/27 look broadly balanced, with modestly higher US stocks and ample global supplies keeping a lid on prices despite lingering monsoon and policy risks. International trade is projected to hold at a record level, underscoring resilient import demand even as some buyers briefly slow purchases. The coming season starts with a slightly more comfortable US balance sheet, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks after weaker long-grain exports last year. Globally, total supplies are nudged lower to about 734 million tonnes on reduced opening stocks in Iraq and Vietnam, but production remains solid and is anchored by another record Indian crop. With world trade expected to stay around 63 million tonnes, current market indications point to a mostly sideways price environment, where weather and trade policy will decide whether the next move is marginally higher or lower.

Prices

FOB offers from India and Vietnam show a gentle softening trend over June–early July, consistent with the view of a well-supplied global market. In New Delhi, indicative FOB prices eased by roughly EUR 0.01/kg across key long-grain and basmati segments between 20 June and 3 July, equivalent to about EUR 10 per tonne lower, while remaining historically firm for premium grades. Vietnam quotes for long white and specialty varieties also slipped by around EUR 0.01/kg over the same period, mirroring reports of weaker export prices after temporary import pauses by major buyers such as the Philippines.

Benchmark Asian prices add to the picture of a market that has cooled from its 2025 peaks but remains above pre-2023 averages. Thailand’s 5% broken is around USD 440/tonne in May 2026, up from USD 403 in April but still below the highs of early 2025; converted, this is roughly EUR 410–420/tonne.

Supply & Demand

For 2026/27, US total rice supplies are projected slightly higher due to larger beginning stocks, after a season of subdued exports, particularly in long-grain. With domestic use and export projections largely unchanged, this translates into a small uptick in US ending stocks and a moderately more comfortable domestic balance. The average US farm price is forecast around USD 13.50 per cwt for 2026/27, up from a revised USD 12.50 per cwt in 2025/26, confirming that while fundamentals are balanced, prices remain structurally firmer than in the immediate pre-shock years.

Globally, total rice supplies are revised only marginally lower to about 734 million tonnes, driven mainly by reduced opening stocks in Iraq and Vietnam rather than a production shortfall. India’s record crop remains the cornerstone of global availability, offsetting localised tightness and weather or policy concerns in other exporters. World rice trade is expected to stay at a record 63 million tonnes, highlighting robust underlying demand; recent data confirm that export channels remain functional even as some buyers briefly delay tenders or negotiate lower prices.

Fundamentals & Weather

The global rice market enters 2026/27 fundamentally balanced: production in major exporters, led by India, is strong enough to cover incremental demand and rebuild parts of the stock cushion. In India, official and trade commentary emphasises that total government and private stocks are high, offering a buffer against monsoon volatility and potential El Niño effects. At the same time, early-season exports in 2026 have been slightly weaker year-on-year, reflecting both logistics and demand-side adjustments, but not a structural loss of competitiveness.

Weather remains the main swing factor. India’s southwest monsoon started unevenly, with below-normal June rainfall in several key rice states, and local analysts warn that July’s pattern will be critical for the kharif crop. Recent official guidance shows heavy rain in some eastern and central regions, prompting recommendations to protect or drain rice nurseries, underscoring the risk of both deficit and excess moisture in different belts. In Southeast Asia, forecasts for the Mekong Delta and Thailand point to an active monsoon trough in early July, bringing frequent showers that should generally support crop development but may temporarily disrupt logistics.

3–6 Month Outlook & Trading View

With solid 2026/27 starting stocks, steady production and record trade volumes, the base case is for a mostly sideways global rice market into Q4 2026. Downside risk centres on improved monsoon performance in India and continued strong export competition from Vietnam, Pakistan and Thailand, which could keep pressure on lower-quality and parboiled segments. Upside risk stems from any renewed weather stress in South Asia or a shift in Indian export policy that tightens available exportable surpluses, particularly in non-basmati long-grain.

• Importers: Use current softening in FOB offers from India and Vietnam to extend coverage into late 2026, especially for lower- and mid-grade long-grain, but avoid overbuying premium basmati where price gains have been stickier.
• Exporters in India/Vietnam: Consider selective forward sales at current levels, as balanced fundamentals limit substantial upside, but retain some unpriced volume in case of further monsoon or policy shocks.
• Industry users (millers, FMCG): Lock in a portion of physical needs and hedge margins where available, recognising that US farm prices remain elevated versus pre-2023 norms even in a balanced global scenario.

Short-Term Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• India FOB (New Delhi, key long-grain & basmati types, EUR/kg): Slightly soft to steady; recent EUR 0.01/kg declines suggest a mild downward bias if monsoon conditions stabilise.
• Vietnam FOB (Hanoi, long white 5% & specialties, EUR/kg): Steady to marginally weaker amid competitive offers and flexible buyer timing.
• Asian benchmarks (Thailand/Vietnam 5% broken, EUR/tonne equivalent): Largely range-bound around the low EUR 400s, with intraday moves expected to stay modest absent new weather or policy headlines.