Rice Market Under Pressure: Vietnam’s Volumes Rise, Prices Soften

Vietnam’s rice market is entering 2026 with a paradox: export volumes are growing, but prices and export earnings are slipping as abundant regional supply weighs on benchmarks. Strong demand from the Philippines and China is being met by aggressive selling at lower prices, eroding margins even as ports remain busy. Indian and Vietnamese FOB offers confirm a wider correction across Asia, leaving buyers in a strong negotiating position in the near term.

At the core of the current situation is Vietnam’s sharp expansion in shipments during the January–February window of 2026. The country exported around 1.3 million tonnes of rice in the first two months, up 5% year-on-year, yet export value fell 11.2% because the average export price dropped by 15.4% to about USD 464 per tonne. February alone saw exports of roughly 640,000 tonnes valued at USD 289.4 million, underlining still-robust trade flows even as prices reset lower. Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is quoted around USD 365 per tonne and has been stable week-on-week, but trading activity has clearly slowed as importers expect further price easing during the winter–spring harvest. Meanwhile, India’s FOB offers in New Delhi and a benign near-term weather outlook in North India suggest comfortable regional availability, reinforcing a generally bearish short-term tone for rice prices despite some geopolitical and freight-related noise.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Vietnam’s export performance in early 2026 is dominated by a volume–value disconnect. Total exports in January–February reached about 1.3 million tonnes, yet export earnings were only USD 599.3 million, down year-on-year as the average export price fell to roughly USD 464 per tonne, 15.4% below last year’s level (Raw Text). February shipments of 640,000 tonnes and USD 289.4 million confirm that trade flows remain high but less profitable.

The most visible pressure point is Vietnam’s 5% broken rice. According to the Raw Text, this benchmark is currently priced around USD 365 per tonne, stable week-on-week, but with subdued trading as buyers anticipate further declines during the ongoing winter–spring harvest. Recent external sources broadly corroborate this range, reporting Vietnam 5% broken around USD 360–365 per tonne in early 2026, consistent with a multi-month downtrend from higher levels in 2024–2025.

Key export markets continue to anchor demand. The Philippines accounts for roughly 47.6% of Vietnam’s rice exports in the first two months of 2026, with volumes to this destination up 17.6%. China holds an 18.3% share and shows the strongest growth among major buyers, while Ghana, at 8.9%, has reduced purchases by 31%. Shipments to Côte d’Ivoire have fallen by about 90.9%, highlighting a geographic rebalancing of Vietnamese exports as Asian demand outperforms parts of Africa.

📊 Indicative International Benchmarks (Converted to EUR)

To compare current offers across origins and exchanges, all values below are expressed in EUR. USD-denominated export prices are converted at an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for this report.

Market / Contract	Spec / Location	Approx. Price (EUR/tonne)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Vietnam FOB	5% broken, export benchmark	~336 EUR/t (from USD 365/t)	Stable w/w	Bearish / soft
CBOT Rough Rice*	Nearby futures, Chicago	~1,035–1,045 EUR/t equiv.	Slightly firmer vs early March	Neutral to mildly supportive
India FOB (New Delhi)	Basmati, organic	1,800 EUR/t	Unchanged vs last update	Stable
India FOB (New Delhi)	Non-basmati, organic	1,500 EUR/t	Unchanged vs last update	Stable to soft
Vietnam FOB (Hanoi)	Long white 5% (id 321)	460 EUR/t	-20 EUR/t vs 2026-02-21	Bearish

*Note: CBOT rough rice futures trade in USD per cwt; the EUR/tonne equivalent is approximate, based on recent quotes around USD 11.2/cwt and standard unit conversions.

Overall sentiment at this stage of 2026 is mildly bearish for physical Asian rice, with futures markets more resilient due to speculative positioning and cross-commodity spillovers, including from energy markets and macro risk.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

On the supply side, Vietnam is in its winter–spring harvest, which is contributing to a steady inflow of new crop into the market. The Raw Text emphasizes that buyers expect further price declines explicitly because of rising supply during this peak harvest period, reinforcing a short-term oversupply narrative. Southern Vietnamese ports handled more than 382,000 tonnes of rice in February alone, with most shipments heading to the Philippines and African markets, underscoring strong logistical throughput even at lower prices.

Demand is strongest in the Philippines and China. The Philippines’ 47.6% share of Vietnamese exports, combined with a 17.6% increase in volumes, reveals sustained structural import demand, partly driven by domestic production constraints and food security policies. China’s 18.3% share, with the highest growth among major buyers, indicates renewed interest in Vietnamese origins, possibly reflecting competitive pricing versus alternatives and flexible payment terms.

Conversely, some African destinations are scaling back. Exports to Ghana have fallen 31%, and shipments to Côte d’Ivoire have collapsed by about 90.9%, signalling sensitivity to price, freight conditions, and possibly competition from other low-cost origins. The Raw Text notes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not directly affected rice flows so far, but they have pushed up freight and insurance costs, which may squeeze trader margins and weaken competitiveness into distant destinations.

In India, the current set of FOB offers from New Delhi indicates ample availability across basmati and non-basmati segments. Multiple price lists over late February to mid-March 2026 show stable EUR prices with only modest earlier declines, which aligns with a broader narrative of comfortable stocks following strong harvests and, for basmati, still-subdued export flows amid logistics and geopolitical uncertainties. This ample South Asian supply backdrop adds to downward pressure on Vietnamese export prices, even as Vietnam itself increases shipments.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Context

From a fundamental perspective, Vietnam’s January–February 2026 performance encapsulates the classic commodity cycle of volume growth amid price weakness. Export volumes are up 5%, but the 11.2% fall in export value underscores how a 15.4% drop in average export prices to USD 464/t has outweighed tonnage gains (Raw Text). This price erosion is consistent with reports that Vietnamese export quotations have trended lower through late 2025 and early 2026, with 5% broken slipping from over USD 390–400/t to the low/mid-360s in recent weeks.

Policy in key importing countries is also shaping demand patterns. The Philippines remains the main outlet for Vietnamese rice and has recently adjusted its tariff and import allocation regimes, but from Vietnam’s perspective, the key signal is that volumes remain robust despite lower prices. External reporting highlights that the Philippines and other ASEAN buyers are closely monitoring Vietnam’s export prices relative to Indian offers when making procurement decisions.

On the exporter side, India’s policy environment has been volatile in recent years, with bans, minimum export prices, and duties alternately tightened and relaxed for different rice categories. While some restrictions on non-basmati exports were lifted in 2024–2025, the current reality is that India still wields significant influence over global rice supply conditions, and its large inventories act as a cap on price rallies. Although these policies do not directly contradict Vietnam’s current price weakness, they reinforce the idea that buyers are not compelled to chase prices higher in early 2026.

Speculative activity on CBOT rough rice futures has been moderate but firm, with open interest in early March 2026 around 12,000–12,500 contracts, suggesting sustained participation from funds and commercial hedgers. However, the linkage between US futures and Asian physical export quotes remains loose: while futures have shown episodic strength alongside broader commodity rallies, Vietnamese and Indian cash prices are dominated by regional harvest and policy factors rather than by US futures signals.

🌦 Weather Outlook (India – Key Growing Regions)

While the Raw Text focuses on Vietnam, Indian weather is crucial for the broader Asian rice balance. Current forecasts for North India (e.g., Uttar Pradesh around Lucknow) from 17–23 March 2026 call for mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with daytime highs in the 29–35°C range and lows around 17–20°C. There is mention of haze and occasional thunderstorms later in the week, but no significant rainfall events or extreme temperatures that would threaten near-term crop conditions.

At this stage of the season, these conditions are broadly neutral to slightly positive for the maturation of late rabi-season paddy and for land preparation ahead of the next cycle. Adequate warmth without excessive heat stress, combined with manageable moisture, tends to support stable production expectations. There are no signs of major disruptions such as flooding or drought in the immediate 7‑day horizon, which suggests that India’s current contribution to regional rice supply should remain steady, thereby reinforcing the soft price environment facing Vietnamese exporters.

🚢 Logistics, Freight & Geopolitics

The Raw Text explicitly notes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not yet directly affected rice shipments, including those from Vietnam. However, traders report higher freight and insurance costs, driven by broader shipping risk premia linked to regional conflict and rerouting of vessels. These cost increases may not yet be fully visible in FOB quotations but are already impacting trade margins, especially on long-haul routes to West Africa and the Middle East.

For Vietnam, the effect is twofold. On one hand, robust demand from nearby ASEAN partners like the Philippines limits exposure to long-distance freight spikes. On the other hand, price-sensitive African buyers, already reducing purchases from Vietnam, may continue to scale back if landed costs rise due to higher ocean freight and risk surcharges. The combination of lower FOB prices and rising logistics costs compresses trader profitability and may, over time, discourage aggressive forward selling at today’s low price levels.

India, as a major supplier to the Middle East and Africa, is more directly exposed to these freight dynamics. Recent commentary on Indian basmati exports points to disruptions and slower shipments toward Iran and other Middle Eastern destinations, with some reports of stranded cargoes and short-term price weakness within India. This environment indirectly supports Vietnam’s competitive position in nearby Asian markets while reinforcing overall downward pressure on global benchmark prices due to abundant supply.

📌 Global Trade Flows & Country Comparison

While detailed official 2026/27 balance sheets are still evolving, the early 2026 trade picture for rice is increasingly shaped by Vietnam and India. Vietnam’s 1.3 million tonnes of exports in January–February 2026 set a strong pace for the year, especially given the 5% year-on-year increase in volume. China and the Philippines are now the dual pillars of Vietnamese demand, offsetting weakness in parts of Africa.

India’s role remains that of a price setter and residual supplier. Its large basmati and non-basmati sectors, together with high public stocks under the food security programme, allow it to influence world prices even when formal export restrictions are in place or being adjusted. External analyses through late 2025 and early 2026 highlight that India’s decisions to relax or tighten non-basmati exports and to adjust minimum export prices for basmati have repeatedly shifted the global price floor.

Other traditional exporters such as Thailand and Pakistan remain important, but current public data suggests that their export prices are slightly higher than Vietnam’s, reinforcing Vietnam’s status as one of the most competitive origins. Historical comparisons show Vietnam’s 5% broken often undercutting Thai and Pakistani equivalents, and in early 2026, Vietnamese prices in the USD 360–365/t range look particularly aggressive versus some competitors.

📈 Indian & Vietnamese FOB Price Landscape (EUR)

The supplied product price dataset gives a detailed snapshot of current Indian and Vietnamese FOB prices, all expressed in EUR. These are highly relevant benchmarks for buyers comparing qualities and origins.

🇮🇳 India – New Delhi FOB (Latest, 2026-03-14)

ID	Type / Description	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
502	Rice, all golden, sella	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	0.97	0.00 vs 2026-03-07	Stable
501	Rice, all steam, PR11	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	0.47	0.00	Stable
500	Rice, all steam, Sharbati	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	0.64	0.00	Stable
498	Rice, all steam, 1121 steam	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	0.88	0.00	Stable
497	Rice, all steam, 1509 steam	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	0.82	0.00	Stable
496	Rice, white sella, 1121 creamy	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	0.80	0.00	Stable
325	Rice, white, non-basmati (organic)	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	1.50	0.00	Stable
324	Rice, white, basmati (organic)	IN	New Delhi (FOB)	1.80	0.00	Stable

Note that for all key Indian lines, prices have remained unchanged across the last three updates (2026-02-21, 2026-02-28, 2026-03-07/14), indicating a period of sideways pricing after earlier mild declines. This stability contrasts with Vietnam’s more pronounced export price softening.

🇻🇳 Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (Latest, 2026-03-14)

ID	Type / Description	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
321	Rice, long, white, 5%	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.46	-0.02 vs 2026-03-07	Soft / declining
320	Rice, Jasmine	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.48	-0.02	Soft
319	Rice, Japonica	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.57	-0.02	Soft
318	Rice, Homali	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.63	-0.02	Soft
317	Rice, white glutinous	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.58	-0.02	Soft
316	Rice, Calrose	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.63	-0.02	Soft
315	Rice, black	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	1.03	-0.02	Soft
323	Rice, red	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	0.75	-0.02	Soft
322	Rice, paper dried	VN	Hanoi (FOB)	1.80	-0.02	Soft

These FOB series confirm a broad softening of Vietnamese rice prices between late February and mid-March 2026, perfectly consistent with the Raw Text’s description of falling average export prices and buyer expectations of further declines.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Price Forecast (3 Days)

Based primarily on the Raw Text fundamentals—rising Vietnamese supply during the winter–spring harvest, cautious buying, and stable but low export quotations—supplemented by stable Indian FOB offers and benign Indian weather, the near-term bias for rice prices remains slightly downward to sideways.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Indicative, EUR)

Market	Product	Region	Spot 17 Mar 2026 (EUR/kg)	Forecast 18 Mar	Forecast 19 Mar	Forecast 20 Mar	Bias
India FOB New Delhi	Golden sella (id 502)	IN	0.97	0.97	0.96–0.97	0.96–0.97	Sideways to slightly soft
India FOB New Delhi	PR11 steam (id 501)	IN	0.47	0.47	0.46–0.47	0.46–0.47	Sideways
India FOB New Delhi	Sharbati steam (id 500)	IN	0.64	0.64	0.63–0.64	0.63–0.64	Sideways to slightly soft
Vietnam FOB	5% broken benchmark	VN	~0.34 EUR/kg (from USD 365/t)	0.34	0.33–0.34	0.33–0.34	Slightly soft

Given the very short time horizon, price moves are expected to remain small, with most of the adjustment occurring through slower trading volumes rather than sharp price cuts. Any surprise policy shifts from major exporters, or a sudden escalation in Middle East shipping disruptions, could temporarily lift FOB quotes, but these risks are secondary to the dominant harvest-driven supply pressure in Vietnam.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers (Philippines, China, other Asia): Maintain a staggered buying strategy. With Vietnam’s export volumes high and prices under pressure, there is scope to secure additional coverage on dips, especially for 5% broken and standard long‑grain white. Avoid over-frontloading purchases given ongoing harvest pressure.
• African buyers (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, etc.): Carefully reassess landed cost structures in light of higher freight and insurance. Where possible, negotiate freight-inclusive offers from Vietnam and India and consider diversifying origin mix to capture the most competitive quotes.
• Vietnamese exporters: Focus on margin management rather than volume at any cost. With prices already down 15.4% y/y and buyers expecting further declines, tight control over procurement costs, freight contracts and credit terms is critical. Consider hedging exposures where CBOT correlations allow, while recognising basis risk.
• Indian exporters: Use current price stability to lock in forward business, especially in premium basmati and parboiled segments, while monitoring Middle East shipping risks closely. A benign weather outlook and steady domestic supply support competitive offers, but logistics disruptions could quickly change the equation.
• Speculators & funds: CBOT rough rice futures show steady open interest and some resilience compared with Asian cash prices. Any further downside in Vietnamese and Indian FOB quotations, combined with stable or firmer futures, could widen basis opportunities; however, liquidity constraints and regional policy risks require disciplined position sizing.
• Risk managers & policymakers: In import-dependent countries, consider using today’s lower prices to bolster strategic stocks, while monitoring freight and insurance trends linked to Middle East tensions. For exporters, avoiding abrupt policy shifts that destabilise trade flows will help sustain market confidence and reduce volatility.

Overall, the rice market in early 2026 is characterised by strong Vietnamese export volumes, softening prices across Vietnam and parts of South Asia, and manageable—but not negligible—geopolitical and freight risks. Barring a major weather or policy shock, the near-term trajectory points toward continued price pressure and favourable purchasing conditions for importers.