Rice prices steady in India, softening in Vietnam as exports face headwinds

Rice export markets in India and Vietnam are entering mid-March 2026 with a clear divergence in price momentum but a shared backdrop of ample global supply and policy-driven trade flows. Indian FOB offers ex-New Delhi for both basmati and non-basmati grades have been broadly flat over the past three to four weeks, reflecting stable domestic paddy arrivals and a post-curb normalization of export channels. Vietnam, by contrast, is seeing gentle but persistent downside in FOB Hanoi quotations across most specialty and long-grain segments as the Mekong Delta winter–spring harvest adds supply into an already well-supplied global market. International benchmarks confirm this picture: Asian export indications for India and Thailand have edged lower, while Vietnam’s 5% broken has been comparatively more stable but is trading near the lower end of recent ranges.

Weather over the next three days is not expected to disrupt this price structure. In New Delhi, hazy and very warm conditions dominate, with highs around 30–33°C and no major rainfall forecast, consistent with an off-season period where field operations are limited. In Vietnam’s key export hub Hanoi, a mix of clouds, light showers and sunshine with highs in the mid- to high-20s Celsius points to benign conditions that support harvesting, drying and logistics from the Mekong Delta through to northern ports. While structural climate risks in the Mekong Delta, including subsidence and saline intrusion, remain a long-term constraint, they are not yet translating into acute short-term supply stress. On the macro side, global rice production is projected at record or near-record levels into 2025/26, and both India and Vietnam have expanded exports following the relaxation or recalibration of India’s earlier export restrictions, reinforcing a moderately bearish undertone for prices. Against this backdrop, buyers can afford to be patient and price-sensitive, especially for Vietnamese long white 5% and fragrant varieties, while sellers in India are likely to defend basmati premiums but may face increasing competition in non-basmati segments serving Africa and parts of Asia.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

FOB New Delhi – Basmati & Non-Basmati (India, IN)

Latest update: 14 March 2026 – All values converted and expressed in EUR/kg (approximate).

Type (FOB New Delhi)	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change* (EUR/kg)	Trend vs mid-Feb	Sentiment
All golden, sella (India)	0.97	0.00 (vs 07 Mar)	↓ from 0.99 on 14 Feb	Neutral / slightly soft
All steam, PR11 (India)	0.47	0.00	↓ from 0.49 on 14 Feb	Soft
All steam, Sharbati (India)	0.64	0.00	↓ from 0.66 on 14 Feb	Soft
All steam, 1121 steam (India)	0.88	0.00	↓ from 0.90 on 14 Feb	Soft
All steam, 1509 steam (India)	0.82	0.00	↓ from 0.84 on 14 Feb	Soft
White sella, 1121 creamy (India)	0.80	0.00	↓ from 0.82 on 14 Feb	Soft
White, basmati, organic (India)	1.80	0.00	↓ from 1.83 on 14 Feb	Neutral / slightly soft
White, non-basmati, organic (India)	1.50	0.00	↓ from 1.53 on 14 Feb	Soft

*Weekly change is calculated vs the last quoted level on 07 March 2026; prices are flat week-on-week but modestly lower than mid-February.

FOB Hanoi – Long-Grain & Specialty (Vietnam, VN)

Latest update: 14 March 2026 – All values in EUR/kg. Vietnamese prices show a consistent softening week-on-week.

Type (FOB Hanoi)	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Trend vs mid-Feb	Sentiment
Long, white, 5% broken	0.46	-0.02 (vs 07 Mar)	↓ from 0.51 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Jasmine	0.48	-0.02	↓ from 0.53 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Japonica	0.57	-0.02	↓ from 0.63 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Homali	0.63	-0.02	↓ from 0.68 on 14 Feb	Bearish
White glutinous	0.58	-0.02	↓ from 0.63 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Calrose	0.63	-0.02	↓ from 0.68 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Red	0.75	-0.02	↓ from 0.80 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Black	1.03	-0.02	↓ from 1.09 on 14 Feb	Bearish
Paper dried	1.80	-0.02	↓ from 1.85 on 14 Feb	Bearish

📌 Relation to International Benchmarks

• Vietnam 5% broken FOB is quoted around USD 365–395/tonne in early–mid March 2026, broadly consistent with local long white 5% offers near 0.46 EUR/kg (≈ USD 414/tonne, assuming ~1.12 USD/EUR).
• Non-basmati white 5% broken from India is reported in the USD 350–355/tonne range after a recent easing, aligning with the soft tone in New Delhi PR11 quotations.
• Basmati export prices from India have come off by about 5–6% recently, partly due to export disruptions and rerouted demand in the Middle East, adding mild downward pressure to premium segments.

🌍 Supply, Policy & Trade Flows

India (IN)

• India’s earlier export restrictions on non-basmati categories have been progressively relaxed, culminating in the removal of bans and duties on key categories, with policy documents indicating that broken and non-basmati exports are now freely allowed.
• As restrictions eased, India’s total rice exports surged ~19–21% in 2025, with non-basmati volumes up ~25% and basmati shipments at record highs, reinforcing India’s position as the top global exporter.
• Despite the structural dominance of India in global trade, New Delhi’s localized FOB prices in mid-March 2026 show stability rather than strong downside, suggesting that exporters are managing margins amid steady overseas demand from Africa and the Middle East and a still-firm domestic price base.

Vietnam (VN)

• Vietnam exported around 8 million tonnes of rice recently, solidifying its position as the second-largest exporter after India.
• Mekong Delta winter–spring harvest volumes above 24 million tonnes, together with softer global demand from key buyers such as the Philippines and Indonesia, have pushed Vietnam’s 5% broken export price sharply lower from peaks and kept current offers under pressure.
• Recent regional assessments show that while Asian rice export prices declined for India and Thailand during the week ending 6 March 2026, Vietnamese prices remained relatively stable thanks to abundant supply, but the local physical quotes in Hanoi are nonetheless easing week-on-week.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Impact (IN, VN)

Global & Regional Fundamentals

• USDA projections put global rice production in 2025 at a record ~532–533 million tonnes, with total supplies above 710 million tonnes, implying comfortable global availability into 2025/26 and limiting upside in export prices.
• In India, good paddy arrivals and adequate buffer stocks, together with normalized export channels, are consistent with flat to slightly softer FOB New Delhi values across non-basmati and some basmati segments.
• Vietnam’s Mekong Delta – producing over half of the country’s rice and ~95% of exportable surplus – continues to operate near full capacity, although policymakers remain alert to climate and water-management risks.

Short-Term Weather Outlook (15–17 March 2026)

India – New Delhi (proxy for North India trade hub)

• 15 March: Hazy sunshine with a possible morning thunderstorm; highs near 30°C, lows around 18°C.
• 16 March: Very warm and hazy; highs around 33°C, lows 18°C.
• 17 March: Cloudy, very unhealthy air quality; highs around 32°C, lows 19°C.
• Market impact: Weather is seasonally warm but not disruptive; key crop operations are limited in North India at this point in the cycle, so no immediate yield or logistics concerns are expected. Road and rail movements to port are not weather-constrained.

Vietnam – Hanoi (proxy for export corridor; supply from Mekong Delta)

• 15 March: Cloudy with a couple of light showers; high around 25°C, low 20°C.
• 16 March: Mix of clouds and sun; high 27°C, low 21°C.
• 17 March: Partly sunny; high 28°C, low 21°C.
• Market impact: Conditions support ongoing harvesting and drying in producing regions and do not pose near-term risks to quality or logistics. Seasonal concerns around El Niño and saline intrusion remain more structural than immediate, though authorities continue to monitor them.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (EUR/kg, FOB)

India – FOB New Delhi (15–17 March 2026)

Base: last update 14 March 2026. Price bands reflect expected trading ranges, not official quotes.

Segment	Current Level (EUR/kg)	Expected 3‑Day Range (EUR/kg)	Bias
All golden, sella	0.97	0.96 – 0.98	Sideways to slightly soft
All steam, PR11	0.47	0.46 – 0.47	Soft
All steam, Sharbati	0.64	0.63 – 0.64	Soft
All steam, 1121 steam	0.88	0.87 – 0.89	Sideways
All steam, 1509 steam	0.82	0.81 – 0.83	Sideways to slightly soft
White sella, 1121 creamy	0.80	0.79 – 0.81	Sideways
White, basmati, organic	1.80	1.78 – 1.82	Sideways
White, non-basmati, organic	1.50	1.48 – 1.51	Soft

Vietnam – FOB Hanoi (15–17 March 2026)

Base: last update 14 March 2026. Ample Mekong Delta supply and competitive export pricing drive a slightly bearish 3‑day outlook.

Segment	Current Level (EUR/kg)	Expected 3‑Day Range (EUR/kg)	Bias
Long, white, 5% broken	0.46	0.45 – 0.46	Soft / lower
Jasmine	0.48	0.47 – 0.48	Soft
Japonica	0.57	0.56 – 0.57	Soft
Homali	0.63	0.62 – 0.63	Soft
White glutinous	0.58	0.57 – 0.58	Soft
Calrose	0.63	0.62 – 0.63	Soft
Red	0.75	0.74 – 0.75	Soft
Black	1.03	1.01 – 1.03	Soft
Paper dried	1.80	1.78 – 1.80	Soft

📌 Trading Outlook (Price-Driven)

• Buyers (importers, millers):
  • For near-term coverage (March–April 2026), consider staggering purchases, prioritizing Vietnamese long white 5% and fragrant grades where week-on-week declines are visible and harvest pressure is strongest.
  • Use India-origin basmati for quality-sensitive markets, but negotiate hard on non-basmati where India competes directly with Vietnam and Pakistan, given global oversupply.
• Sellers (exporters, traders):
  • In India, defend basmati premiums but be prepared for minor discounts on non-basmati to move volumes amid strong competition and high global stocks.
  • In Vietnam, focus on volume and quick turnover during the winter–spring marketing window; maintaining liquidity may be more important than holding out for higher prices in the next 1–2 weeks.
• Risk notes:
  • Monitor policy signals from India and Southeast Asia, as any re-imposition of export controls or tariff changes could quickly tighten availability and reverse the current soft tone.
  • Keep an eye on evolving El Niño/La Niña forecasts and saline intrusion metrics in the Mekong Delta, which could affect 2026/27 crop expectations and shift the medium-term balance.